Admiral Beez
Superstar
I think we can predict that Trump’s going to lose, hard. It’s the Senate that I’m watching to flip.
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November 2020 US Election
- Thread starter Admiral Beez
- Start date
Richard White
Senior Member
If Trump loses I wonder how many rednecks in pickup trucks will drive to Washington with AR-15s (amongst other weapons) to defend Trump and prevent Biden from being inaugurated.
gabe
Senior Member
No we can't predict Trump is going to lose. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign.
Richard White
Senior Member
CNN is already thinking Trump will end up going the way of Jimmy Carter.
http://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/politics/election-2020-trump-carter-scenario/index.html
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Not all polls are equal. For a start, 2016 was the worst candidate vs. the second worst. Clinton was a terrible candidate.
Why Biden's 2020 poll lead is different from Hillary Clinton's in 2016
Not all leads are created equal. Here are the ways that Joe Biden’s advantage in the polls is different from Hillary Clinton's in October 2016.
www.nbcnews.com
I agree that 2020 poll leads are different, but Biden isn't an awesome candidate. In 2016 a lot of people just couldn't stomach Clinton, but I think this time around people are realizing that another four years of Trump simply isn't a good thing. And there isn't the hate for Biden that there was for Clinton; he's not all that inspiring, but he'll do.
Richard White
Senior Member
The New Hampshire Union Leader newspaper that has endorsed republicans for over 100 years in Manchester, NH is endorsing Biden (https://www.unionleader.com/opinion...cle_e2053388-cc66-59f4-9e7f-8e01a1ea11df.html). For those who are unaware, the New Hampshire Union Leader has political sway in the state.
Between that and the Lincoln Project it is safe to say that alot of Republicans do not like Trump. They would rather vote for Biden than vote for Trump owing to the fact that he is bad for America.
When lifelong GOP members including former party chairs and presidents are all voting for the other guy you know Trump doesn't stand a chance.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The US will never vote for a woman as president unless they’re forced to, by way of both parties fielding women. That’s Biden’s superpower here, and that’s why the only way Harris becomes president is if Biden dies or becomes incapacitated, since there’s no way she get the nomination to run in 2024 otherwise.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Nice. I wondered why Trump was in New Hampshire today, campaigning in what must be one of the most Republican-leaning states. Is the Leader Union part of the commie, fake news left now? Not with this closing caveat I’d say...
* While Joe Biden is the clear choice for president, it would be a disservice to the country to send him to the White House without a backstop. We suggest splitting the ballot and electing a healthy dose of GOP senators and representatives.
The raging deplorables on the Union Leader’s Facebook are something else....
Coolstar
Senior Member
Agreed. The comments are filled with hate for the media in general. It gives me a good laugh to see Trump supporters angry at the media that they claim to fake or biased yet they end up spreading the fake news themselves instead.
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Johnny Au
Senior Member
Confirmation bias and belief perseverance are very strong among Trump supporters.
Not even the late atheist and skeptic James Randi who famously debunked every single supernatural claim could hold a rational debate with them.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
What I am curious about is whether they consider it a disservice to the country not to have backstop in 2016 (in any event, said healthy dose of GOP senators and reps turned out to be quite an effective backstop against 45, I might add).
AoD
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kEiThZ
Superstar
In 2016, district level polling actually showed a tight race, leaning to a Clinton loss. This time around it's showing a bloodbath for Republicans.
You want other evidence? Look at traditionally red states. In what world is Texas tied, and Kansas and Montana in single digits. In what world are Senate candidates in South Carolina and Mississippi within 5 points?
The ass kicking cometh. And we can talk about it in a week.
kEiThZ
Superstar
By the way, both sides see the polling. And you can see how they are acting. Biden/Harris is expanding the map with visits and ad investments in Georgia and Texas. Trump is pulling ad spending in Michigan and Wisconsin and Ohio and basically betting it all on Florida and trying to defend Georgia.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
More than that - you can also see how his "friends" in the Senate and internationally are acting (the evasions, Netanyahu's delicate stepping away from Trump). That's not the sign of a winning candidate with political capital - it is a sign of him being a liability.
AoD