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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

My 98 year old father-in-law is in the Sunnybrook Veterans Centre, which has approximately 400 residents. So far they have had 2 cases; one recovered and one who died of other causes but was Convid-positive. All residents have been tested. From what I have seen they are three to a room but they are not full. Here's praying they maintain that record - the wife is quite stressed. They are excellent at family communication.

It speaks well of them that ever resident was tested; and probably indicates other early measures.

I wish your family well!
 
The situation appears to have taken a turn for the worse in Russia in recent days:


Russia on Wednesday announced a record 3,388 new cases of coronavirus, a 16% increase, bringing the country’s total to 24,490.

At this rate, the confirmed caseload will double every five days.

Starting today, Muscovites are required to carry a QR-code giving them permission to travel to work or other destinations in the city. The permission slips became mandatory on Wednesday for drivers and passengers in taxis or on public transport.

Demand is high: the city on Monday said it had already issued 3.2m passes. But the system’s clumsy rollout has sparked outrage, with critics saying the government has created a potential new hotbed for infections.

On Wednesday, large traffic jams formed coming into Moscow as police began checking all cars for the mandatory passes, while metro passengers were forced into queues that could last more than an hour as police individually checked passes.

 
Some social distancing may be needed into 2022, Harvard study says

Eric Mack
April 14, 2020 1:47 p.m. PT

Hopefully you're comfortable wherever you're sheltering in place, because a new study out of Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health says periods of social distancing may be necessary into 2022 to curb the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Sociologists have suggested that some social distancing methods, like avoiding hugs and handshakes, could persist beyond the end of the pandemic, but the paper published Tuesday in the journal Science notes that even after the spread of the virus appears to wane, "a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."

"The total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next five years will depend critically upon whether or not it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave, which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection imparts," the researchers, led by Harvard research fellow Stephen Kissler, write in summary.

The peer-reviewed study focused in large part on the question of how long immunity from exposure to the new coronavirus or cross-immunity from other coronaviruses might protect against infection. (It should be noted that this is not the same as the immunity that could come from a vaccine, which is still in development.) It ran computer-modeled scenarios using data from what we know so far about SARS-CoV-2, combined with data on two related coronaviruses thought to be the second most frequent cause of the common cold (behind rhinoviruses).

If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is similar to that of the milder coronaviruses included in the study, it may last for less than a year, leading to annual outbreaks akin to what we see with cold and flu season. In another scenario, immunity may last closer to two years, raising the possibility of biennial outbreaks with smaller flare-ups in the intervening years.

 
Trump and Kushner could reap a pandemic windfall

April 14, 2020 at 6:00 PM EDT

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have insisted that Congress spend another $250 billion on small businesses devastated by the pandemic, but they refuse to “renegotiate unrelated programs” from last month’s emergency coronavirus bill.

What are they afraid of?

Well, maybe it’s this: As the dust settles on the $2.2 trillion legislation, it has become clear that one of its largest provisions, a $170 billion tax giveaway, appears to be tailor-made for the benefit of wealthy real estate investors such as President Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is running one of Trump’s coronavirus task forces.

 
Some social distancing may be needed into 2022, Harvard study says

Eric Mack
April 14, 2020 1:47 p.m. PT

Hopefully you're comfortable wherever you're sheltering in place, because a new study out of Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health says periods of social distancing may be necessary into 2022 to curb the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Sociologists have suggested that some social distancing methods, like avoiding hugs and handshakes, could persist beyond the end of the pandemic, but the paper published Tuesday in the journal Science notes that even after the spread of the virus appears to wane, "a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."

"The total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next five years will depend critically upon whether or not it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave, which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection imparts," the researchers, led by Harvard research fellow Stephen Kissler, write in summary.

The peer-reviewed study focused in large part on the question of how long immunity from exposure to the new coronavirus or cross-immunity from other coronaviruses might protect against infection. (It should be noted that this is not the same as the immunity that could come from a vaccine, which is still in development.) It ran computer-modeled scenarios using data from what we know so far about SARS-CoV-2, combined with data on two related coronaviruses thought to be the second most frequent cause of the common cold (behind rhinoviruses).

If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is similar to that of the milder coronaviruses included in the study, it may last for less than a year, leading to annual outbreaks akin to what we see with cold and flu season. In another scenario, immunity may last closer to two years, raising the possibility of biennial outbreaks with smaller flare-ups in the intervening years.

No way people going to be social distancing for up to two years.
 
No way people going to be social distancing for up to two years.

There's a difference between lockdown and social distancing. Aspects of like such as school, restaurants, retail and business can still take place but with conditions such as spatial courtesy and capacity restrictions. Projections take into factor if the virus cycles back in the future based on seasons changes. Social distancing protocol is not expected to be an absolute constant either, as it may fluctuate based on what is needed at that time.
 
Coronavirus: Hong Kong’s screening regime for airport arrivals holds lessons for travel industry in post-pandemic world
  • City has one of the most comprehensive testing procedures for Covid-19 in place at converted expo site
  • Programme is being closely watched as the airline industry’s body prepares to hold a summit with health officials in the coming weeks
A requirement forcing all air passengers arriving at Hong Kong to be tested for the coronavirus will remain in place going forward, a leading city health official said, with experts predicting the practice will become standard at airports around the world as the aviation industry adapts to a new normal once the pandemic recedes.

--------
The monitoring regime would stay in place at least for now, a health official said on Tuesday. “The test that Hong Kong has adopted, I believe it has to stay for a while,” said Dr Wong Ka-hing, controller of the city’s Centre for Health Protection. “I don’t think we can easily do away with the testing in the near future.”

Hong Kong’s programme is being closely watched as the airline industry’s body prepares to meet health, civil aviation and airport authorities in the coming weeks. The International Air Transport Association recognises that such comprehensive screening will become the new normal to ensure the virus does not resurface as global air travel resumes once the pandemic is brought under control.

“It is clear the health control conditions of passengers will be a key element to restart our industry,” association chief Alexandre de Juniac said. “What we are advocating for is having similar measures all over the world, to avoid a patchwork of complex measures in different parts of the world.”

 
Not to the extent we are doing now, but some measures, such as avoiding handshakes, sports played in not-filled-to-capacity stadiums, things like that.


True but we have no idea how long some lockdown aspects will last.

And we have seen in other countries lockdown things again after opening them up so its really worrying.

To me what needs to be done is

1. Focus on treatment so to reduce deaths and serious infections
2. Eradicate Community transmission and lockdown all people entering the country with mandatory curfews.


Now I think Australia and New Zealand have mostly stopped community transmission and will likely go back to normal soon and just lockdown from the rest of the world.

However, in Canada being near America will make that hard.

I don't think locking things down until we have a vaccine is reasonable.
 
Community transmissions is now more of an issue than travel transmission -- and community transmission can be reduced via physical distancing. However, when I see the line ups at grocery stores in suburbia, I really doubt that people are staying at home like they should be. Locking down travellers at this point does nothing when others are still going here, there and everywhere and ignoring guidelines.

Researchers are working on vaccines and treatments around the clock.
 
If China doesn't close down its wet markets and progress to a normal, first world food chain we'll be here again in ten years or less. That's what the WHO needs to push, not managing or predicting pandemics, but preventing them at the source, and that source for the last two has been China.

I love this....

93221411_10160069788074199_5397712419969564672_o.jpg
 
Community transmissions is now more of an issue than travel transmission -- and community transmission can be reduced via physical distancing. However, when I see the line ups at grocery stores in suburbia, I really doubt that people are staying at home like they should be. Locking down travellers at this point does nothing when others are still going here, there and everywhere and ignoring guidelines.

Researchers are working on vaccines and treatments around the clock.


But the key is to stop community transmission by us being locking down.

Then ensuring we do not restart new chains of transmission from people travelling.

Or else we are going to keep doing wack a mole lockdowns on repeat.

That is why happened in HK and Singapore...
 

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