High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[Streety McCarface]

It's the sort of line that CN would likely happily sell however, just like they sold all the GO lines 5-10 years ago. The line is in terrible condition and has little value in terms of freight customers.

Not entirely, they recently took back operations, and likely for a good reason. I've noticed a sharp increase in the number of freight trains through Kitchener ever since they took over operations of the line recently. I highly doubt industry is warranting the increase in rail traffic, so my guess is that they are shifting some of their mainline traffic away from CN's main line. It makes sense, GO is taking up more space through Hamilton and eventually they will want to run even more trains down through niagara & into west harbor, leaving CN dispatchers with less flexibility. Freight traffic is also steadily increasing all over NA, so the extra capacity desires make sense.

There's also the possibility that CN is wants fewer parties at the bargaining table, having to deal with GEXR, CN, Metrolinx, and Transport Canada seems like a huge headache, especially if CN wants the upper end of any potential sell off.

How many people are going to take a train from London to K-W as a final destination? This seems like a monorail-like project that no one is asking for.

Believe it or not, but probably thousands per day within the next 20-30 years. Currently, something like 15K people commute from KW/Guelph to Toronto, and this doesn't include the huge numbers of students during their weekly migration. This line gives direct access to the University of Guelph, the University of Toronto, The University of Waterloo, Wilfried Laurier University, and Western University: 5 major Ontario institutes, with a total student population hovering around 150K students. About 3/4s of these students tend to go home at some point in the year for the weekend, so I think it's safe to say that around 30-50K students would use this service in two directions thurs-sun (or about 10K students per day, with Friday and Sunday having peak loads). About 10K people commute to/from Guelph, and giving people in London the opportunity to travel to Toronto in less than 2 hrs probably adds between 2 and 5 thousand additional passengers per day. All these areas are growing, and KW is quickly becoming a huge tech hub in Ontario (housing here is already insanely expensive, giving people the opportunity to commute from London to KW might actually have a huge business case in the next decade or so),

Of course, most people are still going to drive, so I think it's safe to say that the average daily ridership of this service after opening would be around 5-7K PPD, 10K after a year, after 15K 5 years, and after 20 years, between 30-40K PPD.

Note: those numbers might seem small, but they're actually really big for a typical high speed service. A typical train may only carry around 500 people, so this translates to:
IOS: 10-15 full trains (or one full train every 2 hours/one half-full train per hour)
1Y: 20 full trains (one full train every hour, one half-full train every half an hour)
5Y: 30 full trains (one full train roughly every hour, plus half hour peak service)
20Y: 60-80 full trains (one half-full train every 15 minutes)

These numbers are fairly typical for most high speed rail lines throughout the world (there are some exceptions, notably the tokaido Shinkansen).

Ridership is highly dependent on the pricing scheme. Currently, the Acela Express sees about 12K PPD and is highly profitable, and serves a much more dense corridor, however, it's extremely expensive and adheres only to business, plus they are traveling over much longer distances), while typical northeast corridor trains see an average of 40K PPD. Note, most of the northeast corridor is also traversed by local services (NJT, SEPTA, MBTA, MNRR, MARC, ConnDOT, etc), meaning the ridership potential is a lot less than it could be.

 

[hw621]

It'll be a long time before we see this in North America.

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Not in my life time

 

[Admiral Beez]

Believe it or not, but probably thousands per day within the next 20-30 years. Currently, something like 15K people commute from KW/Guelph to Toronto, and this doesn't include the huge numbers of students during their weekly migration.

Yes, KW to Toronto certainly. But I’m questioning the London to KW traffic.

 

[crs1026]

Yes, KW to Toronto certainly. But I’m questioning the London to KW traffic.

If you add in the end points of Chatham, Windsor, and Sarnia - there is lots of demand if the service is well connected and if frequency and timings are improved. .

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

How many people are going to take a train from London to K-W as a final destination? This seems like a monorail-like project that no one is asking for.

It's not about London to KW. It's about London via KW and Pearson vs. London via Brantford and Hamilton. Which one gets more traffic and a better return on investment? I'd argue the former, especially if flights can be diverted to rail and KW becomes commutable to both London and Toronto.

 

[JohnnyRenton]

GO Train to London? Wonder how the logistics would pan out.

Other rail fixes urged for Southwestern Ontario as high-speed service frozen

There could be a new train of thought for passenger rail in Southwestern Ontario.

www.woodstocksentinelreview.com

With the HSR plan effectively cancelled I fully expect to hear dozens of replacement ideas for that service area over the next few years. And almost all of them will be terrible in some way or another.

It is disappointing to see this plan off the books. Just as it is to see a lot of GO's future plans seemingly on hold. But I am not at all worried. GO has slowly but sure been assembling the pieces it needs in order to, one day, develop a modern, regional rail network. It has focused on boring, but critical infrastructure projects that eliminate level crossing, totally revamp corridors (such as Georgetown), double tracking lines as it can, all amongst a climate of rising, but still variable investments in transit. Intercity rail will probably grow in much the same manner as well.

Grand projects are rare in Canada. They do happen. But usually the proposals are more exercises in what could be, and if it is something that actually makes sense, then it can move on to a more realistic discussion. The reality of infrastructure building is thoughtful pragmatism. A high speed rail service from Toronto to Pearson, Kitchener and through to London makes sense. These are key hubs/centres in the GTA and Southern Ontario, and a relatively short distance from each other. The end result might be that the way to build such a line is all at once. Or, it might be a matter of completing some aspects of the system first, such as better rail access for Pearson, or improving the line in urban sections, such as through Kitchener, where it will likely share tracks with GO, and then linking it all together in a phase 2 of the project.

I don't see this idea coming back in a serious way for another 5 or 10 years, and that's okay. Intercity rail proposals in Canada always miss the mark, sometimes by a bit, often by a lot (VIA HFR being perhaps the only exception to this rule). This one was no different. Maybe when it comes around next time, the long string of bad intercity rail proposals will have started to break and we can see a proposal for this corridor that gets it right.

 

[muller877]

Currently, something like 15K people commute from KW/Guelph to Toronto, and this doesn't include the huge numbers of students during their weekly migration.

It doesn't matter how many people travel to the GTA. It's how many people travel to the commercial areas around stations (ideally walking distance away). I know many a people who live in Cambridge and commute to Mississauga Rd area. The question is how many people would this make it quicker for to get to work. (not that many)

 

[kEiThZ]

With the HSR plan effectively cancelled I fully expect to hear dozens of replacement ideas for that service area over the next few years.

LOL. I don't. They kept the study going for a reason. This way they don't have to talk about any actual alternatives at all during their term.

It is disappointing to see this plan off the books. Just as it is to see a lot of GO's future plans seemingly on hold. But I am not at all worried. GO has slowly but sure been assembling the pieces it needs in order to, one day, develop a modern, regional rail network.

Sure. But now, we might not actually see RER style service on any GO corridors till 2030 and no full RER conversion till 2040. And that's me being optimistic.

Grand projects are rare in Canada.

The problem with RER is that at some point, you have to bite the bullet and spend billions on electrification, at which point it gets labelled as "grand". Sometimes you can't get around "grand projects". And because our population is entirely both stingy and skeptical, we don't build necessary infrastructure until 20-30 years after it's needed and at 2-3x the cost it would have been as building to demand.

 

[JohnnyRenton]

The plan that never actually got funding and probably won't survive the election if the government gets tossed?

SWO politicians should have been pushing the federal Liberals for this. Instead, they settled for insincere promises of future action.

Except isn't the decision of VIA HFR in the hands of the infrastructure bank? I could be mistaken as it is easy to get lost in all the ins and outs of transit projects across the country, but I thought that project was always going to be outside the usual pattern of direct government funding. It seems that the biggest block with HFR is the Mt Royal tunnel, which thanks to the REM project, has caused a lot of problems for the section through Montreal.

The challenge with politicians is that there are so many intercity/regional rail/transit projects that could be justified due to many, many decades of them being ignored that it is hard to pick which ones you should get behind. Throwing your support behind everything makes you look like your just going to spend, spend, spend. You have to pick your battles and given that a lot of people never thought this was likely in the first place, you can understand why few really championed for it.

 

[JohnnyRenton]

LOL. I don't. They kept the study going for a reason. This way they don't have to talk about any actual alternatives at all during their term.

I was more referring to local municipalities, cities and busy bodies throwing in their two cents about what should be done, as opposed to a bunch of formal studies and reports (though in the land of studies and reports I wouldn't rule that out).

Sure. But now, we might not actually see RER style service on any GO corridors till 2030 and no full RER conversion till 2040. And that's me being optimistic.

I am taking the wait and see approach on this. I know Dougie has done what he does best and just change everything up and send people into a panic. But the problem RER is trying to solve, which is trying to improve the terrible commute many parts of the GTA has, wont go away, so its not as though things are going to go dormant on that front.

The problem with RER is that at some point, you have to bite the bullet and spend billions on electrification, at which point it gets labelled as "grand". Sometimes you can't get around "grand projects". And because our population is entirely both stingy and skeptical, we don't build necessary infrastructure until 20-30 years after it's needed and at 2-3x the cost it would have been as building to demand.

I guess that depends on your definition of grand. To me, grand would be upgrading all the corridors to double track, and electrifying them, and introducing 15 minute all day service, all at once. Doing each on their own makes them "large projects", but still reasonable enough that they are not a near impossible sell to the public.

 

[kEiThZ]

Except isn't the decision of VIA HFR in the hands of the infrastructure bank?

We speculate as such. In truth, we don't know where this idea (we don't even know if it's a real project yet) is at because VIA has not been very transparent.

Next, if it is at the Infrastructure Bank, the government still shares the blame for the slow ramp up of the bank. They haven't done anything of significance really beyond buy into REM's already funded project.

It seems that the biggest block with HFR is the Mt Royal tunnel, which thanks to the REM project, has caused a lot of problems for the section through Montreal.

That tunnel is entirely irrelevant for the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal stretch. It only matters for Montreal-Quebec City which should not be critical to launching the service.

The challenge with politicians is that there are so many intercity/regional rail/transit projects that could be justified due to many, many decades of them being ignored that it is hard to pick which ones you should get behind. Throwing your support behind everything makes you look like your just going to spend, spend, spend. You have to pick your battles

Sure. But VIA is in the federal domain, and they waited until their last year in office to even fund rolling stock replacement. They really aren't doing as much as people think.

But the problem RER is trying to solve, which is trying to improve the terrible commute many parts of the GTA has, wont go away, so its not as though things are going to go dormant on that front.

Doug Ford really does not care about this. I don't get why people are optimistic. They can do all the track upgrades they want. The kind of frequency they need to truly relieve traffic and crowding on GO itself can't happen without implementing (probably electrified) RER service. And the Ford government seems opposed to that. I think they are okay tinkering at the edges with steady track upgrades but don't really care for substantial capacity expansion. Which means GTA commutes are only going to get worse.

I guess that depends on your definition of grand. To me, grand would be upgrading all the corridors to double track, and electrifying them, and introducing 15 minute all day service, all at once. Doing each on their own makes them "large projects", but still reasonable enough that they are not a near impossible sell to the public.

Track upgrades can be done piecemeal. But conversion to EMUs has to be done by at least a full corridor at a time with catenary and new trains. At that stage, every line becomes a multi-billion dollar project. This is what makes it "grand".

 

[JohnnyRenton]

Yes, KW to Toronto certainly. But I’m questioning the London to KW traffic.

And that's the sort of question that needs to be asked. Is there an untapped market for rail travel? Definitely. But what kind of investment is actually warranted. If trains could consistently cruise at 160km/h, which would be a much cheaper infrastructure upgrade then if they were able to go 300km/h, or even 200km/h, would that be enough to double or triple the customer base in a few decades, or less?

This hits on something I find myself thinking about more and more which is that most intercity train expansion/upgrade proposals seem to be put together by people who really like trains. By that I mean they are plans that would make travel better for those that already take the train. But I often wonder how the plans will attract new customers. Faster trains will help attract more customers, but there are also considerations like price, how convenient a local station is, destinations, frequencies, reliability, safety, etc. Most Canadians like, or are at the very least neutral, on trains (at least from my experience, and that includes people from all across the country). It shouldn't be this difficult to sell investing in passenger rail and just a little bit of creativity would go a long way.

 

[begratto]

We speculate as such. In truth, we don't know where this idea (we don't even know if it's a real project yet) is at because VIA has not been very transparent.

Next, if it is at the Infrastructure Bank, the government still shares the blame for the slow ramp up of the bank. They haven't done anything of significance really beyond buy into REM's already funded project.

The Investment Bank has not even done that : they provided a $1B loan (and not even interest-free) to the REM, but they did not invest in it.

 

[crs1026]

Track upgrades can be done piecemeal. But conversion to EMUs has to be done by at least a full corridor at a time with catenary and new trains. At that stage, every line becomes a multi-billion dollar project. This is what makes it "grand".

Yes - and - The "bare minimum" to electrify even a single line out of Union Station is the full insulation and bonding of the station, electric-proofing the USRC signalling system, and construction of the central Toronto electrical feed (which is planned to be at Obico in the west end, with a feeder line to Canpa and then eastwards to Union.) That's huge.

So even incremental electrification requires a huge initial down payment.

- Paul

 

[JohnnyRenton]

We speculate as such. In truth, we don't know where this idea (we don't even know if it's a real project yet) is at because VIA has not been very transparent.

Next, if it is at the Infrastructure Bank, the government still shares the blame for the slow ramp up of the bank. They haven't done anything of significance really beyond buy into REM's already funded project.

True. Though we don't know if there is anything on VIA's end that is at play too. Unfortunately it is a very much a black box in terms of what exactly is taking place behind the scenes.

That tunnel is entirely irrelevant for the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal stretch. It only matters for Montreal-Quebec City which should not be critical to launching the service.

Yes, part of the service could launch without the tunnel. But from an optics perspective, that Montreal-Quebec section is fairly key as it will result in the biggest time savings over the current service, and potentially be the section of the line that brings the biggest increase in customers, and elevates the potential success of the project that much more.

Sure. But VIA is in the federal domain, and they waited until their last year in office to even fund rolling stock replacement. They really aren't doing as much as people think.

VIA is not an organization on the cutting edge. That is about as polite as I can put that.

Doug Ford really does not care about this. I don't get why people are optimistic. They can do all the track upgrades they want. The kind of frequency they need to truly relieve traffic and crowding on GO itself can't happen without implementing (probably electrified) RER service. And the Ford government seems opposed to that. I think they are okay tinkering at the edges with steady track upgrades but don't really care for substantial capacity expansion. Which means GTA commutes are only going to get worse.

Yes, it will get worse, which is why the problem can only be ignored for so long. It will come back to the fore sooner rather than later.

Track upgrades can be done piecemeal. But conversion to EMUs has to be done by at least a full corridor at a time with catenary and new trains. At that stage, every line becomes a multi-billion dollar project. This is what makes it "grand".

If some people see electrification as being a 'grand' project, who am I to argue with that.