I've never dropped $50m on land before (so for all I know this is part of the misdirectional shenanigans that goes on
), but I'd assume that if it were a $200m+ transaction, they wouldn't say "nearing or exceeding $50m" on the tender. At the very least that provides a ballpark for us to play inside.
I wouldn't rule out Newmarket as being the corridor in question: even if it were a "done deal" in terms of CN and GO having settled on a price, it's still quite possible---likely, even---that in situations like this you still have to bring in a flotilla of lawyers for a few months to cross 'i's and dot 't's. Newmarket's a narrower corridor with fewer infrastructural improvements (ie trackage, signalling) on it than Weston, so it would be reasonable to expect it would sell for a fair bit less per mile.
If this purchase is somewhere on the Lakeshore corridor and those other pricing guesses remain true, it'll have to be a relatively short chunk. Perhaps the Kingston sub from the east end of the USRC to Scarborough Jct.? (~7.4 miles) Or Oakville sub from the west end of USRC to either Willowbrook or Canpa Jct.? (~5+ miles) Would buying the latter and presumably getting signalling priority be useful from an equipment moves perspective?
If they were going to purchase a piece of the lakeshore corridor and the amount was appox. 50 million, it would be a pretty small piece considering the corridor is worth 20-30 million per mile.
So obviously thats not the case. Like I said before CN wanted a billion each for the corridors, for a length of track less than 60 miles long - you do the math (ultimately that price should be negotiated downwards, as that represents the high end).
I can see CN willing to sell the Kingston since they run no mainline freights west of Liverpool at mile 312.9 along the line as they have no need for it - they all get routed up the York sub which connects to their main terminal Mac yard. Only a few industrial switchers run on that corridor - mostly to the Uxbridge sub at mile 325.3 and to 3 other switches along the entire length of the Kingston between mile 313 and 332.4 - the start of the Union station rail corridor.
It'll be nice to get this line under GO's control because CN likes to run these industrial switchers during the evening which will interfere with and cause delays just past Guildwood in the 2 track section when GO goes to 1/2 hour service as thats where the meeting point would be for an east bound and west bound GO train. Not going to happen if a CN train with 3 cars is occupying one of the tracks. It will cause a delay of 15-20 minute to several evening trains on a daily basis. GO can't do anything about this now without ownership, as CN only cares about pleasing their primary customers - the industries (though I suppose its fully within their right to do so since they own the track and they are a private for profit corperation). But when GO gains ownership, they can dictate how and when CN freights run on it and that'll be only during the middle of the night when there are no GO trains. It might inconvenience some industries i.e. delay the arrive of time sensitive materials, and have these materials arrive when they are closed for the night and CN might lose a customer or two to trucking. However, and I'm sure I don't need to say this to anyone here but I will anyways... In order to convince more people into giving up their cars and taking public transit(thus reducing emissions and congestion), GO needs to provide the most efficient and timely service possible.
In any case CN is not just going to sell one tiny piece of a sub they rarely use - its going to be sold in its entirely, not piecemeal.
As for the Oakville that gets even more complicated so i'm not going to get into it too much. It is occasionally used by mainline freights that come down the Bala sub, that go to Oakville yard (west of mile 19) to set off and/or pick up cars. The line gets busier west of Oakville yard and it is very frequently used west of Burlington West at mile 32.2 (west of Burlington GO station mile 31.5) where CNs main east-west line, the Halton sub connects to the Oakville sub. There are also many more industries along the line than on the Kingston.
Safe to say CN will never sell the track west of Burlington West and might not sell the trackage up until Oakville yard or 9th Line(the eastern entrance to Oakville yard). The track east of 9th Line m.19 should be purchasable though and GO can control the movement of the mainline freights that come down the Bala sub - which usually happens midday and has caused occasional delays.
So that gives us 19 miles of the Kingston and 19 miles of the Oakville - 38 miles in total of what is a 3-4 track corridor, fully signaled track (CTC) continually welded rail. Which is where my previous estimate of 500 million for each of those 2 sections comes from (appox 26.4 million per mile). Ultimately, it should fall within 20-30 million per mile.
The Weston went for 10 million per mile for what is mostly single main track(70%) and signaled (CTC). The portion of the Newmarket sub that GO does not own is also single track and signaled (CTC). The corridor widths vary so its hard to compare that, but its safe to say that the Weston is generally a wider corridor in that it can accommodate 3-4 tracks, while the Newmarket is good for 2-3 tracks. The values of the corridors are based more so on the current infrastructure, and less so on the corridor width.
Taking that all into account and I'd say the Newmarket is still worth 7-8 million per mile.
Every other corridor that GO runs on is either already owned by GO (Weston, Uxbridge, GO sub, rest of the Newmarket) or is a CN or CP mainline (Halton, Bala, Galt subs) that will not change ownership. So this transaction is in regard to either the Kingston, Oakville or Newmarket subs.
In conclusion, the 50 million dollar figure does not correlate to any corridor or worthwhile portion thereof. The reason for mentioning 50 million is just as EnviroTO states.
edit: I suppose CN might be nice and basically 'give' the rest of the Newmarket away for 50 mil, but than again a 1000 footer could go up at 1 bloor... both are just as likely at this point
