GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[cbrown2009]

you beat me to it. Don't forget the Stouffville line getting regular weekday service.

Wasn't the Stouffville service scheduled for about 2018? That was why I didn't mention it.

 

[cbrown2009]

I have had the same experience....but I think there are nuances to cancelling very frequent buses and telling people that typically would be on a bus at X time for a 45 minute journey to way those 45 minutes for a train to leave...that person will (correctly) see that train service as personally inferior.

I see your point, and for the record, as I said I would personally love to see half hourly service at least through the 7:50 trip but again I temper my expectations and wishes with what I unfortunately foresee ML actually doing near-term. That bar is extremely low in my eyes presently. Right now I can only hope that the overall finish line of full electrified, 2 way, 15 minute, 20 hour a day, 7 days a week service is actually in place by 2024 as the Libs said it would. Currently seeing perpetually empty tracks evenings and weekends is very disappointing to me

It's funny my wife and I talked about heading to the CNE sometime during this week. I told her to rush from work to catch the 3:45 train (last one) from Mount Pleasant and I would meet her at Union or the CNE. She asked how we would get home as the buses would be packed and chaotic. So I told her to just drive to Long Branch instead. Which is our usual way of getting downtown on weekends as well

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Wasn't the Stouffville service scheduled for about 2018? That was why I didn't mention it.

September 2017 or Early 2018 according to here.
https://swanboatsteve.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/rer-rollout-details.pdf

 

[cbrown2009]

September 2017 or Early 2018 according to here.
https://swanboatsteve.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/rer-rollout-details.pdf

Right. Have the same chart on my comp. Working on my iPad just now. But was responding to the earlier question of what was supposedly next up.
Track was supposed to be needed before the Stouffville service increase. Haven't seen an update in a while on that. Anyone have current info?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Right. Have the same chart on my comp. Working on my iPad just now. But was responding to the earlier question of what was supposedly next up.
Track was supposed to be needed before the Stouffville service increase. Haven't seen an update in a while on that. Anyone have current info?

True, for Stouffville, they're current at the agincourt part of the line doing improvements.
http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regiona..._Agincourt_Public_Meeting_Presentation_EN.pdf

 

[cbrown2009]

Thank you kindly

 

[steveintoronto]

I believe that the simple 1st hurdle of getting hourly service all day seven day from Mount Pleasant (or Bramalea) to Union is quite enough of a challenge for now without having the added logistics of a Weston -Bramalea shuttle.

I think you missed the gist of consensus in earlier posts. It is the *frustration* at the vacuum of regular service outside of daytime (and even that is not comprehensive) that was spurring the talk of *anything* to utilize the corridor for normal, everday persons to connect from regions on the corridor that have extant connecting local buses every fifteen minutes. Anyone touting a shuttle is doing it in lieu of full bi-levels (albeit six coaches each or less) doing it to complement peak trains and continue to run all day and well into the evening. Existing model: Lakeshore line. The reason GO can maintain that schedule on the Lakeshore is because they own the corridor that they use. Ditto Bramalea south.

Besides, some are calling the midday ridership woeful but to my eyes, albeit being my eyes, for what's currently up and running (ie. no trains to Union after 4pm & no trains at all after 6:50pm leaving Union), I'm guess-timating about 20-25% capacity on the 6 car consists, at least Toronto-bound.

I agree. I observe about same. I've been using that corridor to escape the city roughly twice a week much of the Summer, and usually return on it too, albeit from Georgetown to Mt Pleasant by the 33 bus, Georgetown offers much better cycling backroad access than Mt. Pleasant, not least the Caledon Trailway, an absolute delight that can be done between rush-hours. (Malton up to Bolton, cycle up almost to Tottenham, attain Trail, ends almost at Georgetown, cycle down from there, easily done in 3 1/2 hours, you can catch last train eastbound from Mt. Pleasant, albeit it's 'express' from Malton to Union. You'd think they'd stop at Weston to allow transfer to UPX, but hey...

A 6 car train carries about 1000 seats (a little less). Even an average ridership of 200 people maxes out the bus service that was in place previously.

You're making an excellent case for all-day, three car bi-level coach *half hourly* service from Bramalea to Union. And perhaps further, but that would be another discussion. The only problem I can see is pathing into Union. It *might* complicate during peak service, but that's a side issue, as service is then frequent anyway, and the shorter trains will be rendered redundant, unless run as local stops, and the peak trains express.

So shouldn't that be enough to warrant/justify the trains, even if said trains aren't necessarily crush loaded?

Absolutely! And remember, *initial* ridership is misleading. If the service is established, ridership will grow as local buses feed into it.

And wouldn't 1 train serve better than say cramming 8 buses through Union Bus Terminal to Brampton/Bramalea between 7-8pm? Or 5 trains than the well over 30 buses (up to 40 on busy nights) to various points in Brampton over the course of an entire evening up to midnight?

This completely misses the lesson of "Show up and ride". Half hour, even, isn't enough, but it might work. Tell me, why isn't UPX every half an hour? I'm going to love seeing the answers to that one.

so, in your vision, you would cancel all of the buses when hourly train service is introduced? That, to quite a few, will represent a worsening of service.

Absolutely agreed. People start looking for alternatives. Even after doing 100 km rides, and ending up at the waterfront thinking, 'OK, time to get off the crazy roads, take GO in from here' and then see that there's a 40 min wait (scheduled upgrades cut service many Summer weekends). I ended up cycling all the way in. What the hell am I going to do in the middle of Scarberia for 40 mins? Play Pokemon? Do some Crack? Maybe just steal cars? Half an hour wait even tests the patience, but it's doable. Barely.

I would think you would have to maintain half hourly bus service (say trains on the hour and buses on the half hour) or you will get a fair few customer complaints.

Even with half-hourly trains, you might still have to run buses, but not for exactly the same purpose.

For the record, I would skip the buses and stick to the trains in the case of both being offered, but that's just me.

That's not you. That's choice. And that's also good logic. Once again: "Show up and go" rules.
https://pedestrianobservations.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/the-limits-of-clockface-scheduling/

And now people at most of the stations on the KW line (to use that as an example) have frequencies homeward of every 15 minutes or so via bus

I think you can downgrade frequency a bit by switching to trains....so ditching half hour buses for hourly trains seems ok.....but just after that last train at 6:50 pm at night in current schedule the bus frequencies are more like 15 minutes. I could see that changing to something like trains on the hour and buses on the half hour....but if you look at the example I gave in my last post you can see the benefit of frequencies and the possible harm in going to far

Agreed again, albeit on Bramalea south to Union (at least, maybe continue east) emphasis must be placed on on trains being as frequent as possible, even if it means running three coach bi-levels, but if only hourly, then the bus must complement it at the half hour.

Barrie weekend hourly trains and Kitchener line evenings & weekend hourly trains. At first I thought those services would come online as of next week but the rumour around UT is saying early next year. I also always felt that while welcome as a start, 24 or 28 trains on the weekends was a little weak, as a 7am-11pm service would require about 36-38 train trips per day.

"Kitchener line evenings & weekend hourly trains. ". Your faith in promises is a lot greater than mine. I'm here in Guelph for the next nine days. Your beliefs are...whimsical...to say the least.

There are (conditionally) valid excuses for failing on that promise. Where they have none is south from Bramalea. Their last one was lack of stock. They just announced stock surplus. They blew their last excuse. There is the matter of some missing track, in the big scheme of things, it is minor.

 

[reaperexpress]

I'm surprised that this talk about a Bramalea-Weston shuttle has been going for so long. Surely we're scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Regarding the question: 30 min Bramalea-Weston vs 60 min Bramalea-Union here are the numbers for "show up and go" (i.e. random arrivals at station).

Bramalea-Union hourly direct:
30 min average wait + 37 min travel
= 67 min average travel time

Bramalea-Union half-hourly to Weston
15 min average wait + 18 min to Weston + 8 min transfer + 14 min to Union
= 55 min average travel time

So for a person randomly showing up at the station, it is slightly better to have 30-minute indirect service than 60-minute direct service. But in either case (30 or 60 min headway) the vast majority of people will be checking the schedule and showing up for a particular train. In practice the 60-minute direct service would be better, since it's faster once you get on the train. Admittedly I'm biased because I'd arrive at Bramalea by bus on route 30 which only runs hourly anyway so it would benefit from a faster trip but not from more frequent service.

 

[steveintoronto]

...So for a person randomly showing up at the station, it is slightly better to have 30-minute indirect service than 60-minute direct service. But in either case (30 or 60 min headway) the vast majority of people will be checking the schedule and showing up for a particular train. In practice the 60-minute direct service would be better, since it's faster once you get on the train. Admittedly I'm biased because I'd arrive at Bramalea by bus on route 30 which only runs hourly anyway so it would benefit from a faster trip but not from more frequent service.

All good points, and you're a lot better than I am on working ostensible schedules, but let me ask: "Indirect" = Stopping at all stops "Direct" express point to point, no stops"? And that raises some other issues, such as "does express on that corridor materially reduce travel time?" The daytime afternoon runs are done express Malton to Union inward bound, and are scheduled the same travel time as the earlier stopping trains, albeit that's possibly for padding in the timetable for delays at Union. For "show up and go"...patrons must be willing to forego express for the convenience of more frequency. Same applies to subways, which is what "show up and go" is epitomized by. The term was coined not for subways, but for surface metros in Europe, this term in English first used (to my knowledge) on the South London Metro, since "tubes" are very few south of the Thames due to the gravel soil instead of clay, so the many surface lines were cobbled into a "metro", now run by London Overground. They often run two car trains, (or used to) but are now up to six, and lengthening platforms to take eight, it's been such a massive success.

More trains used = less vehicles on the road.

 

[reaperexpress]

All good points, and you're a lot better than I am on working ostensible schedules, but let me ask: "Indirect" = Stopping at all stops "Direct" express point to point, no stops"?

Indirect = transfer at Weston
Direct = no transfer

Nothing to do with express or local.

A direct point-to-point express would take 26 minutes from Union to Bramalea, rather than 37.

And that raises some other issues, such as "does express on that corridor materially reduce travel time?" The daytime afternoon runs are done express Malton to Union inward bound, and are scheduled the same travel time as the earlier stopping trains, albeit that's possibly for padding in the timetable for delays at Union.

I did a comprehensive comparison of GO schedules a few years ago, and I'm too lazy to dig it up now, but I found that skipping a stop saves about 2 minutes. There is more time saved the higher the speed limit, and I found a maximum of (IIRC) 3.5 minutes on the Lakeshore West Niagara service (150 km/h) and a minimum of 1.8 minutes on the Stouffville line (70 km/h). Admittedly the Niagara service also has the confounding variable of a shorter trainset than the corresponding local service. Another illustration of this principle is the Kitchener line: prior to GTS, the express train saved 10 minutes compared to the local by skipping 4 stops (2.5 min/stop), but now it saves 12 minutes (3 min/stop).

I've been assuming that the 15:00 eastbound runs the local schedule despite skipping stops to allow them to add Weston and Bloor at any point without changing the schedule.

 

[steveintoronto]

Indirect = transfer at Weston
Direct = no transfer

Nothing to do with express or local.

Direct = no transfer at Weston to UPX?

I did a comprehensive comparison of GO schedules a few years ago, and I'm too lazy to dig it up now, but I found that skipping a stop saves about 2 minutes. There is more time saved the higher the speed limit, and I found a maximum of (IIRC) 3.5 minutes on the Lakeshore West Niagara service (150 km/h) and a minimum of 1.8 minutes on the Stouffville line (70 km/h). Admittedly the Niagara service also has the confounding variable of a shorter trainset than the corresponding local service. Another illustration of this principle is the Kitchener line: prior to GTS, the express train saved 10 minutes compared to the local by skipping 4 stops (2.5 min/stop), but now it saves 12 minutes (3 min/stop).

So presuming two and a half minute stop at the four stations between Bramalea and Union (these trains, even at three coach bi-levels, at half an hour interval wouldn't be full) costs ten minutes compared to express. Not a bad price to pay for frequent service.

Anyone guess on how many trainsets would be needed to do this? And if this is slotted to run between the 15 min UPX schedule, anyone see any reason that the present running arrangement of the southerly (most westerly) two tracks now used by UPX can't be used? And on a half an hour basis, would the missing dedicated track to Bramalea be a problem?

 

[reaperexpress]

Direct = no transfer at Weston to UPX?

Direct means no transfers, so yes.

So presuming two and a half minute stop at the four stations between Bramalea and Union (these trains, even at three coach bi-levels, at half an hour interval wouldn't be full) costs ten minutes compared to express. Not a bad price to pay for frequent service.

Anyone guess on how many trainsets would be needed to do this?

Bramalea to Union hourly:
37 min each way for 10-car trains
add 0.25 layover rate: = 46 min each way
x2 for round trip = 92 min round trip
round up to nearest hour = 2 h round trip

2h round trip / 1h headway = 2 trainsets
You'd need to get the travel time below ~22 minutes before you could run with a single trainset. Which is not possible.
We could probably run a 45 min headway with the same two vehicles, especially if the shorter trainsets result in time savings compared to the current 10-car schedule. Or alternatively we could run half-hourly with 3 trainsets.

Bramalea to Weston half-hourly
18 minutes each way currently, maybe 16 minutes with a 3-car set.
Too long for a 0.5h round trip so:
= 1h round trip / 0.5h headway = 2 trainsets.

 

[steveintoronto]

Or alternatively we could run half-hourly with 3 trainsets.

If I understand correctly, that's Bram to Union? That's pretty good! That's certainly do-able with three surplus F59s. Anyone have a count on how many are up for retirement? And we'd need 3 each of a control car and disability *access* car. It may not require a full tilt disability car, an older coach could be converted. Remember, on a three car train, the demand is one quarter of that of a 12 car train.

For the outlay of three minimal trainsets, some track and extra signals, it looks like this could be in business within half a year. Now *THAT* would be worthy of a press conference! And John (Somewhat Smart) Tory should be praising the Lord that some of his prays have been answered, and are on-track.
[...]Only eight locomotives (F59PH) that were refurbished in 2011 remain in service. Those eight locomotives will be replaced in Fall 2016 when the MPI MP54ACs are delivered.[...]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EMD_F59PH

That would leave five locos to expand the line to the east and/or start converting some to Tier IV while only three are used for the Brunion run. There would be a power-loss doing it, (optimal tuning for low emissions not same as max pwr out) but the power to weight ratio would *still* leave the consists with three coaches more than able to out-accelerate any other trainset now run by GO. (An exception might be the Sharyos, but they're not exceptionally spry, they're on the heavy side) And may I suggest? The disability access renovated coach (mostly washroom) also have a dedicated area for bicycles, such that they are no longer stashed in the door area blocking the end seats on any of the coaches. And as a real plus, also used (as in the US examples of the same coaches) during rush hour as well, provisos for platform access at Union (from end of platform access only, so no travel through station proper) When need presents itself, the consist can become a four coach set, and *still* out-accelerate most trains.

Anyone have an idea of how much stock of older coaches is redundant? Hazard a guess at nine? I know that new ones are on order.

 

[mdrejhon]

The new cabs freed up enough old cabs to be used as regular coaches for a few extra trainsets.

IIRC, about five 12-coach trainsets, or about a whopping ten six-coach transets -- I cannot remember exact number of old coaches now being replaced by 67 new cab cars.

I have now been on a cab in the middle of a GO train being utilized as a regular coach. You could tell because there is no bathroom, and the door folds rather than slides. You can still go between coaches with the old cabs being used as regular coaches, the door is just ...different.

Anyone know *what* the incremental trainsets are going to be used for? Probably some of the 2017 service increases, but which?

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

The new cabs freed up enough old cabs to be used as regular coaches for a few extra trainsets.

IIRC, about five 12-coach trainsets, or about a whopping ten six-coach transets -- I cannot remember exact number of old coaches now being replaced by 67 new cab cars.

I have now been on a cab in the middle of a GO train being utilized as a regular coach. You could tell because there is no bathroom, and the door folds rather than slides. You can still go between coaches with the old cabs being used as regular coaches, the door is just ...different.

Anyone know *what* the incremental trainsets are going to be used for? Probably some of the 2017 service increases, but which?

Well they're not being used altogether, right? There are no consists consisting entirely of old cab cars. I'd think that they're being placed in the queue for coach refurbishment.