GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[SaugeenJunction]

The evidence is here:
https://www.merx4.merx.com/public/solicitations/731172953/abstract

It was indeed moved back a month, that date is reflective of the new close. Not sure why we're all splitting hairs over this as it is now closed, and the new date was probably at the request of the bidders.

 

[mdrejhon]

The point is that Metrolinx is not feeling any pressure from anyone to actually get on with expanding transit.

We're going to press hard to keep Metrolinx moving forward on LRT.

Hamilton's election was a defacto LRT referendum!

Hamilton just voted a strongly pro-LRT council.

We just defeated these people:

It was a #yesLRT mayor (Fred Eisenberger) versus #NOLRT mayor (Vito Sgro).

#yesLRT 54% of the vote versus 38% !!!

 

[steveintoronto]

It was indeed moved back a month, that date is reflective of the new close. Not sure why we're all splitting hairs over this as it is now closed, and the new date was probably at the request of the bidders.

Or another less pleasant possibility. They announced the party, and nobody came...

Description


The Sponsors (Infrastructure Ontario and Metrolinx) anticipate that the Project will include on-corridor works necessary to deliver Regional Express Rail committed train service plus the fleet required to run the service. The Project also includes the operation and maintenance of the on-corridor infrastructure and the fleet for a 30 year period. The maintenance and operation requirements are for the GO-owned network serving Burlington, Bramalea, Barrie, Lincolnville and Oshawa, as well as the operation of GO services over CN and CP lines serving Hamilton, Niagara, Kitchener, Milton and Richmond Hill. During the course of the maintenance and operation periods additional extensions are contemplated between Hamilton and Niagara and between Oshawa and Bowmanville, which will operate within existing freight corridors. The Project will also include provision for the operation of these services to be added to the Project Co’s scope. Table 1 of the RFQ outlines the scope included in the Project at a high level.

https://www.merx4.merx.com/public/solicitations/731172953/abstract

The "Mother of all DBFOMs"? That might just be far too large for 'folks in this part of the world'. It would work in Australia, for instance, already has, quite successfully, but there's a social/political/legal/economic basis for it doing so.

Make no mistake, P3 in some form is the only way forward, but there's something awkward and overarching about this for Ontario. And this particular regime in QP won't be of assistance. Who in the world would want to deal with such amateurs and ideologues? Business likes stability and a stable democratic process.

That's certainly not the case with Ford and Company. My guess? Bidders will only tender on specific routes with caveats, not the whole shebang.

 

[steveintoronto]

We're going to press hard to keep Metrolinx moving forward on LRT.

Hamilton's election was a defacto LRT referendum!

Hamilton just voted a strongly pro-LRT council.

Bit of a problem though. Nothing to do with Hamilton per-se, everything to do with the moron Premier and his band of knuckle draggers. "LRT" is 'non-grata' in the language of the Troglodytes.

Plus you didn't vote Con, so you will be made to pay the price of your insolence.

 

[Neutrino]

Business likes stability and a stable democratic process.

I don't know, south of the border business was unfazed by major upheaval in the form of Trump's election - the Dow rallied like mad.

 

[steveintoronto]

I don't know, south of the border business had no issue with major upheaval in the form of Trump's election - the Dow rallied like mad.

Stock Markets are indicators of steroid use, not useable muscle mass. (economic well being). Inflation and long term economic strength are actually contra-indicated in many cases.

As that pertains to a massive investment into Metrolinx...and I repeat, without clear signs of stable guidance, government, and a slow steady return...why would anyone 'bid on the whole thing' not knowing the consequences? And in what legal/political climate?

Trump's troubles have yet to begin. Meddling with the Fed is a sure sign of it coming...

 

[mdrejhon]

Bit of a problem though. Nothing to do with Hamilton per-se, everything to do with the moron Premier and his band of knuckle draggers. "LRT" is 'non-grata' in the language of the Troglodytes.

Plus you didn't vote Con, so you will be made to pay the price of your insolence.

Well, Ford did play politics and there may be some hell to pay, but he didn't explicitly say No.

We'll have to work hard.

Some Progressive Conservative city councillors voted into office are qualified yesLRT -- e.g. Esther. Also, flipflopper Brad Clark accepted LRT before posting a stance against it; he may flip flop back.

Some political fireworks is probably going to happen in the Council Chambers until construction finally starts. Most of at ~$30M/yr is financed (amortized) over a 30 year period, at roughly $30M/year. So it's cheaper to continue LRT than to give Hamilton a lump-sum $1B for infrastructure such as repaving roads (Vito Sgro was VERY misleading about that). There's still lot of small-"c" true progressive conservatives out there too -- that are not loud populist politics like Ford -- and many opportunities to appeal to more sane mindsets. There will still be lots of political fireworks, methinks. Also, Ottawa's cancelled LRT took several years to resurrect, so if LRT does get dragged out practically for 4 years....2018 is not the final chapter. I'm Ottawa born and we never give up!

 

[steveintoronto]

Well, Ford did play politics and there may be some hell to pay, but he didn't explicitly say No.

He's actually on record of supporting it, in a weasel way:

PC leader Ford supports city’s LRT plan
Ford’s support echoes the party’s previous commitment to fund existing transit projects like the Hamilton LRT
NEWS Mar 27, 2018 by Matthew Van Dongen The Hamilton Spectator

New provincial Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford says he supports building Hamilton's much-debated $1-billion LRT.

Ford took the reins of the PC party in early March — two months before Ontario's election campaign begins — amid the chaos following the resignation of former leader Patrick Brown over sexual misconduct allegations. Despite the upheaval, the provincial Conservatives lead the most recent polls ahead of the June 7 vote.


The former Toronto city councillor and his late brother, former mayor Toronto Rob Ford, were known as vocal critics of several of that city's planned light rail transit projects. The elder Ford has also recently labelled a priority streetcar experiment on King Street in Toronto another example of the "war" on cars.

But Ford says he is on board with LRT in Hamilton.

"I support building the Hamilton LRT because the people (of) this great city deserve a working transit system. This is an investment that will create jobs, countless new jobs and stimulate economic development," Ford said in a brief emailed statement.

Ford's support echoes the party's previous People's Guarantee commitment to fund existing transit projects like Hamilton's LRT. But Ford had previously vowed to "condense" and abandon parts of that Brown-era campaign document — including its major funding source, a carbon tax.

Ford's statement on LRT means the leaders of the PC, Liberal, NDP and Green parties are all on record supporting the contentious transit project — which opponents have vowed to make a local election issue.

The $1-billion project has yet to go to tender, but project manager Metrolinx recently said it is aiming to release a request for proposals within weeks, rather than months. Regardless, a design-build-operate-maintain contract with a consortium won't be signed before spring 2019.

Local PC candidate Donna Skelly, a vocal LRT opponent, has previously said she understands the party will support city council's transit decision — even if it switches gears to an alternative project following the upcoming October municipal election.

The Spectator has not heard back yet from Ford's office on whether he would also agree to fund such a theoretical alternative council pitch for rapid transit.

Skelly said earlier this week it is a "priority" for her to speak to Ford about LRT and "share my concerns and the stand I have taken in the past."

But until that chat happens, the Ward 7 councillor said she won't weigh in on how the reshaped party might treat the always-contentious transit project.

"I'm not going to say anything at this point," she said. "We have a new leader, he has his own priorities and, until I speak with him specifically about LRT, I'm not going to make (a comment) because I don't know how he feels about it."
[...]

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8354837-pc-leader-ford-supports-city-s-lrt-plan/

That was seven months ago. What reassurances, if any, have the QP Cons offered since?

Btw: Congrats on Eisenberger. His stance on development and sensible land-use policy goes back a number of years. I used to quote his statements as being pertinent to Guelph. Guelph's Mayor, a friend, has moved from the right to a position much more akin to Eisenberger's.
ELECTION '18: Guthrie wins in a landslide (7 photos)

 

[mdrejhon]

Weasel words as it may but it bears worth noting that the remainder of the $1B (for DBFOM) is amortized at roughly ~$30M/year for 30 years. It'll be cheaper for Ford to let the LRT happen than let it be cancelled, given what is now happening.

New October 8th article with reassurance:



See... It's not $1B sitting in a bank account. The LRT funds is amortized over the next 30 years in a DBFOM contract.

And Ford is presented with the option (A) of letting LRT proceed using the amortization to keep the costs spread over 30 years, versus (B) letting LRT cancel and scandal of cancellation cost.

And the new tax money (for province) caused by new developments and all the spinoffs, will massively outweigh the spend -- meaning province will appreciate the new income.

Also we apparently have yesLRT conservatives (e.g. Esther) elected to City Council now, so they will serve as bridges as well.

Sure, not 100% free of risk. There's more than that, but the future has not been written in stone. Rest assured, we'll continue to be working goddamndest hard to keep LRT on track.

Currently, we are /still/ on schedule:

Hamilton is now past the point where it is cheaper to let LRT proceed.

And we also built up a large slate of developers that is waiting for LRT to begin building, e.g. Sherman+King now zoned 6-storey condos with mandatory mainfloor retail -- most of corridor is now zoned 6 storey transit oriented development -- and Hamilton stand to lose a lot of development (and the income to province too) if this cancels. Some developers (with some conservative minded on boards too) who are in touch with the province, and the province would really rather not lose the income, either. So it's not just the spent LRT cost, but the loss of new tax income from developers too. Ultimately, the math works out well in favour in letting LRT proceed -- even when you exclude all those spinoffs.

Year 2019 will be where the drama & fireworks plays out.

 

[steveintoronto]

The LRT funds is amortized over the next 30 years in a DBFOM contract.

Year 2019 will be where the drama & fireworks plays out.

Errr...you're going to have to avail me of a few more details to convince me.

Here's a quote from the Spectator story:
"The $1-billion project has yet to go to tender, but project manager Metrolinx recently said it is aiming to release a request for proposals within weeks, rather than months." Story is dated Mar 27, 2018.

The 'Law of Diminishing Reality' (apologies to Utility) appears to be in play.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Errr...you're going to have to avail me of a few more details to convince me.

Here's a quote from the Spectator story:
"The $1-billion project has yet to go to tender, but project manager Metrolinx recently said it is aiming to release a request for proposals within weeks, rather than months." Story is dated Mar 27, 2018.

The 'Law of Diminishing Reality' (apologies to Utility) appears to be in play.

That story seems to be wrong - RFP was launched April 12th, 2018 and has since closed.

 

[mdrejhon]

Sources tell me to watch Jan thru April 2019 (approx). Until then, don't count unhatched chickens...

http://www.infrastructureontario.ca/Request-for-Proposals-Issued-Hamilton-Light-Rail-Transit/

"...The shortlisted teams and their prime team members are:

CityLine Transit Group

• Equity providers: ACS, Aecon, CRH, TIAA
• Constructors: Dragados, Aecon, Dufferin
• Design team: Parsons, HDR, Amec, RDHA
• Operation, Maintenance and Rehabilitation team: ACS, Aecon, CRH, Serco

Ei8ht Transit

• Equity providers: EllisDon, Fluor, Bombardier
• Constructors: Fluor Canada, EllisDon Civil, Bombardier
• Design team: WSP/MMM, Hatch, Gh3, Bombardier
• Operation, Maintenance and Rehabilitation team: EllisDon Facilities Services, Bombardier

Mobilinx

• Equity providers: Astaldi, John Laing, Hitachi-Ansaldo, Amico, Transdev
• Constructors: Astaldi, Hitachi-Ansaldo, Amico, Bot
• Design team: IBI, Hitachi-Ansaldo, Daoust Lestage, Morrison Hershfield, Exp Services, Arcadis
• Operation, Maintenance and Rehabilitation team: Transdev, Hitachi-Ansaldo, Astaldi

Teams have been invited to respond to the RFP and will begin preparing proposals that detail how they will deliver the project. Upon evaluating the proposals received, IO and Metrolinx expect to select a preferred proponent, followed by contact award with the successful proponent in 2019...."

----

Some of these stakeholders are well connected with the PCs. I suppose it'll likely end up a PC-preferred consortium over a Liberals-preferred one, though.

 

[Neutrino]

I read "Mobilinx" as "Moblinx." Makes sense I guess with the real estate developer interests around transit.

 

[Allandale25]

Good column here: https://globalnews.ca/news/4584489/...7TIXv2hzAJto9cyaXiqOdtl_vWH-ajY9056loZy2Sq9v8

 

[KevinT]

Shouldn't these last few posts have been in the "Hamilton LRT (Metrolinx/City of Hamilton, Planned)" thread?