GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[Allandale25]

The most troubling aspect of this though is that even in these forums, some take every announcement as proof of the project happening, when in practice, in many cases, it's anything but. People are gullible, and the politicos play on that. Not a *single word since* on the "partnership" with CN for the "freight by-pass as per the K/W corridor. I read that article, and thought: "Well, duh". How can one not be cynical? (gist) "We've got everything in place and planned, except the cash". Hey, I'm building a rocket ship to Jupiter. Honest. The money's coming.

Go ahead and call me gullible or one of the people in this forum who thinks the bypass is going to happen. As I've said before, I assume they would have to be preparing various documents right now to get the tender ready for bypass and Bramalea to Kitchener improvements.

If they want the service they announced in June of 2016 to operate by 2024/2025, some progress will need to be made before 2016 is done. It's only been two months since the announcement of the Agreement in Principle between Metrolinx and CN Rail.

If I'm the only one in this forum who is optimistic and thinks this project is going to happen that's fine. This project does have political support which should help. If it turns out that after the 2018 provincial election a different government changes priorities, that's life.

Pre-construction work and progress happens behind the scenes all the time at the Province, Metrolinx, and the freight railways that the vast majority of us as forum members don't have access to and there can be long gaps between public updates. Even if some people do have access or are employees, people sometimes have to be careful what they post. That's also a reality. I'm going to consistently posting this viewpoint as I'm sure others will post their healthy scepticism with a dash of cynicism. Will be a fun ride to 2024.

 

[steveintoronto]

Here's a release from Mississauga Council a full year prior: (albeit this was the more comprehensive one that included CP)

[...]
Study and Business Case: Constructing the Missing Link

The study by IBI Group cost $84,000 and was shared evenly between the partnering municipalities City of Mississauga, City of Toronto, Town of Milton and City of Cambridge, City of Kitchener, City of Waterloo and the Region of Waterloo. The study recommends municipalities develop a process and work with Metrolinx, CN and CP to apply for funding from the Government of Canada.

Once approved, the study will be forwarded to Provincial and Federal Governments for consideration. It will also be shared with Metrolinx, CN and CP railways and the municipalities sponsoring the study.

Background
About the Missing Link
The Missing Link is a proposed new rail corridor that would link the CN bypass line at Bramalea with the CP line through-route near the Milton-Mississauga border. The Missing Link proposes the separation freight from passenger services on the GO Transit Milton and Kitchener lines.

The bypass would have three major benefits
•Provide an alternative to the challenge of widening the Milton and Kitchener GO Rail corridors
•Remove heavy freight from the Milton and Kitchener GO Rail corridors;
•Free up inner parts of the Milton and Kitchener GO Rail corridors for two-way service on the outer ends of these lines including new service to Cambridge and expanded service to Kitchener and Waterloo Region.

For more information read:
Feasibility Study and Business Case of Constructing the Missing Link

http://www.mississauga.ca/portal/cityhall/pressreleases?paf_gear_id=9700020&itemId=5200012q

How long are we expected to wait after these announcements to hear *anything*...let alone something? Don't you think the Feds would be all over this with announcements of their own if it was going to happen? Note that there were *no federal reps* at the K/W announcement sans CP? Curious perhaps?

[...]The province will seek support from the federal government to build the new rail corridor, a government news release said. It secured the deal with CN through Metrolinx, the regional transportation authority for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, which controls GO Transit operations.
[...]
Although Sandals told the Mercury Tribune that the deal announced Tuesday puts the province on schedule to deliver two-way, all-day GO trains to Guelph and Kitchener by 2024, this isn’t specified in the government news release. Instead, the release just says the deal brings two-way, all-day train service “one step closer.”[...]

http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-s...-door-for-two-way-all-day-go-service-by-2024/

"One step closer". But nothing in writing. Hey...

 

[Allandale25]

Here's a release from Mississauga Council a full year prior: (albeit this was the more comprehensive one that included CP)

I'm making a distinction between what Mississauga Council released, which is essentially a request, and what the Province announced with Metrolinx and CN Rail present. The CN Rail bypass that only benefits the Kitchener Line only and had the funder present, the Mississauga study release did not have the funder present. There are clear differences. CN or CP did not show up to any public meeting or event related to that Mississauga-led study.

How long are we expected to wait after these announcements to hear *anything*...let alone something? Don't you think the Feds would be all over this with announcements of their own if it was going to happen? Note that there were *no federal reps* at the K/W announcement sans CP? Curious perhaps?

No need for federal reps at this point. If you've been reading articles related to the 2016 budget and the overall infrastructure plan, my sense is that the first budget and year for the new government has been about getting funding out the door quickly and for things that have been studied or related to state of good repair (IE see the money the TTC got). Future budgets will look at longer term projects and ones with completed studies, which the bypas would fit into.

In terms of how long to wait, it's been two months. I would think by at least the end of 2016 there's tender update. Also, the commitment made by the government is in writing. It's on a Provincial website. What we're debating is the extent of something in writing for this project and I understand you're not satisfied with what's currently available.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

Show me a single report from Metrolinx PRIOR to Smarttrack that shows a Liberty Village, St.Clair, Lawrence, Unilever, Gerrard, and Finch stations.

The 50+ stations report came out after smarttrack was incorporated into GO RER, as a way to best see how additional stations would fit the GO RER network.

Electrification and GO RER concepts came before Smarttrack, but without any planning for the stations downtown that the city is paying for. Full stop.

You may like to blow smoke and say "oh well they would have done it anyways" but the truth of the matter is that there is 0 evidence indicating that they were going to.

We don't have to agree to disagree, this isn't an opinion piece, you are factually WRONG.

If you look at these slides from September 2015 (after SmartTrack and Tory was elected, mind you), stages 1 and 2 of the additional stations analysis was complete. The station analysis was in stage 3 (the 50+ list), and the document indicates that they were still in the midst of integrating SmartTrack stations into their analysis, aka SmartTrack was external to their evaluation prior to that point.

The stage 1 analysis included the initial 120+ station list, which was generated using key site and network considerations (outlined in 17-18). Site considerations included connectivity, surrounding land use, and technical feasibility. Being in Tory's election platform was not a criteria.

You will see that Liberty Village, St.Clair, Lawrence, Unilever, Gerrard, and Finch stations were part of the initial 120+ list for GO RER. Downtown station planning was not some separate thing like you are suggesting. I don't know why you are so eager to construe this as something Tory came up with.

 

[steveintoronto]

The CN Rail bypass that only benefits the Kitchener Line only and had the funder present

*WHAT* "funder? You completely miss the point. It needs FED money. The Province doesn't have funding, or they would have announced it.

my sense is that the first budget and year for the new government has been about getting funding out the door quickly

Then where is it?

I would think by at least the end of 2016 there's tender update.

Errr...without funding?

Also, the commitment made by the government is in writing. It's on a Provincial website.

Then by all means, quote it or post reference.

 

[mdrejhon]

Government funding nitpicks and blather nonwithstanding -- progress is what's currently important. Get the route studied. Surely some funding can be done to get to the next step -- even if the actual project construction needs federal funding. Make it a 2018 election promise if need be, but get it shovel ready before then!

Get the plans as close to shovel-ready as possible. Know what the dependancies are (Hydro relocations, possible expropriations etc).

The more progress there is, the more likely the project is funded.

Count me as one of those who will see the beginnings of a Bypass eventually happen, but it will take a little longer -- like 2030, 2040, 2050, who knows? -- a well federal-accelerated CN-side-at-first bypass will be complete by sometime during the 2030s, or even more optimistically the late 2020s, rather than 2025. It can be Canada's Apollo Mission, accomplished well before 2050 if all levels of governments sets their minds to it. But at the current pace, it can slowly accelerate to a 2030 grand beginnings (Kitchener freed, not Milton).

The optimist viewpoint assumes that we'll only begin with CN-side bypassing element (frees Kitchener / Brampton / HSR), long before handling CP-side bypassing (frees Milton and North Toronto). The CN side bypassing can be completed far sooner. And night freight can still happen on Kitchener to service legacy customers (under new electrified-line freight safety rules, e.g. covered buckets under catenary). You only need enough bypassing to make Kitchener electrification and passenger-priority acceptable -- not complete 24/7 freight ban.

 

[steveintoronto]

I don't know why you are so eager to construe this as something Tory came up with.

It isn't clear for either end of the arguement. Just because it "appeared on an earlier study" means nothing.
Why is the City on the hook for a good chunk of cash "by October" if it's completely provincial? Riddle me that!

Edit to Add: Please explain this if it is 'all Metrolinx':

[...]
New details on the cost of SmartTrack were also released Tuesday. The province has agreed to pay for $3.7 billion in infrastructure related to RER that is considered “foundational” to Tory’s plan.

But incremental costs — including construction of the six new stations, which Metrolinx estimated at between $700 million and $1.1 billion, as well as the Eglinton West LRT line, estimated at between $1.5 billion and $2.1 billion — would be paid by the city, the federal government and other sources of funding such as development charges. The city would also have to pick up the tab for operating the Eglinton West LRT line.

During last year’s federal election campaign, then-Liberal leader Justin Trudeau pledged to contribute $2.6 billion to SmartTrack. A spokesman for federal Infrastructure Minister Amarjeet Sohi told the Star in an email: “We remain committed to the funding announced for this project during the campaign.”

For SmartTrack to proceed, Metrolinx said the city needs to commit all necessary funding by Nov. 30.

Although Metrolinx and the city have reached an agreement on some of the stations for SmartTrack, the two parties have not yet agreed on what fares to charge for SmartTrack service.[...]

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...ocations-of-four-new-toronto-go-stations.html

 

[drum118]

Go ahead and call me gullible or one of the people in this forum who thinks the bypass is going to happen. As I've said before, I assume they would have to be preparing various documents right now to get the tender ready for bypass and Bramalea to Kitchener improvements.

If they want the service they announced in June of 2016 to operate by 2024/2025, some progress will need to be made before 2016 is done. It's only been two months since the announcement of the Agreement in Principle between Metrolinx and CN Rail.

If I'm the only one in this forum who is optimistic and thinks this project is going to happen that's fine. This project does have political support which should help. If it turns out that after the 2018 provincial election a different government changes priorities, that's life.

Pre-construction work and progress happens behind the scenes all the time at the Province, Metrolinx, and the freight railways that the vast majority of us as forum members don't have access to and there can be long gaps between public updates. Even if some people do have access or are employees, people sometimes have to be careful what they post. That's also a reality. I'm going to consistently posting this viewpoint as I'm sure others will post their healthy scepticism with a dash of cynicism. Will be a fun ride to 2024.

Just because there is Agreement in Principle between Metrolinx and CN Rail which we have yet to see and understand what is to happen, 2024 will be a footnote in this process. I am sure CN will retrain running right on the existing corridor so trains can service the new yard in Milton. The bypass will require trains to back in/out of that yard off the new bypass if built, causing longer time on line and tying up traffic on it.

At the same time, there is no Agreement in Principle between CP Rail and CN Rail for this bypass and until there is, its only a dream to see CP relocated off its current line.

Even if such a thing takes place, service between Milton and Cambridge will have to be on 3 tracks requiring all overpass bridges to be rebuilt at great cost as well the new 2 tracks on Metrolinx dime.

 

[steveintoronto]

The more progress there is, the more likely the project is funded.

That's doublespeak, MD. Without funding, all the brilliant designs are meaningless.

"Build it and they will come!". Worked great for UPX. Oddly, the funding model hasn't worked out the way intended. You give Metrolinx and QP far more credit than they deserve. I'm on record as considering this regime the least bad of the alternatives. That doesn't mean they perform as well as they should. Not even close...I watch in complete envy as I see US, Aussie, UK, European and other progressive nations far ahead of us. It starts with accountability and doable projections with funding in place.

 

[steveintoronto]

Just because there is Agreement in Principle between Metrolinx and CN Rail which we have yet to see and understand what is to happen

I was thinking about that, and I know what the come-back from other posters is going to be: (gist) "Well it's confidential, and the parties agreed to keep it that way".

Classic! So what politicos do *is wave the agreement to the public* to (ostensibly) prove the existence of an Agreement in Writing...not "In Principle" which is meaningless.

Perhaps I've been involved in politics and dealing with politicos a lot longer than some here. But I do have some swampland for sale, real cheap, we can do an agreement right here in this forum. You don't trust me?

 

[Allandale25]

*WHAT* "funder? You completely miss the point. It needs FED money. The Province doesn't have funding, or they would have announced it.

Then where is it?

Errr...without funding?


Then by all means, quote it or post reference.

We don't know yet if it needs Federal funding or not. I would agree it's likely but we're both only speculating at this point and you haven't produced any evidence. We both at this point only have viewpoints.

Your position is that because the Feds weren't there and haven't announced funding since June 2016 that this project may never happen. My position is that progress has been made by getting CN Rail to come to the Agreement in Principle and when a better understanding of the budget is known, the Province will likely ask for finding. How much will the Federal share be? Neither of us knows right now.

Where is the money? I would assume they have a rough idea and the study will nail down a specific figure. That's the point of doing a study.

Here's the announcement in writing on a Provincial website: https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2016/06/ontario-expanding-go-rail-service-to-waterloo-region.html

 

[mdrejhon]

That's doublespeak, MD. Without funding, all the brilliant designs are meaningless.

Hamilton LRT.

Studied heavily 2006-2015 under city fnding, with fancy plans, now funded 2015, begins construction 2019, target operational 2024.

The link above goes to a page that has documents, thousands of pages, city-funded, filled with hundreds of diagrams, like this Year 2011 image (and there are hundreds of these images), that helped make Hamilton LRT relatively shovel ready, and won $1 billion for Hamilton in May 2015... Heck, the 2011 plans page even illustrated exactly which lots probably will need to be expropriated! (It's changed since, due to the minor alignment change to median LRT)

I understand your skepticism, and things will take longer. Yes, we thought our LRT would have been built by 2015. But look at how Hamilton unexpectedly got a 1 billion shocker. All because Hamilton did all that stuff.

Funds is now beginning to be spent (I think it just recently surpassed >$10M spent, over 1% of the Hamilton LRT budget) -- pre-construction surveying & under-road mapping is already occuring, as is corridor canvassing / community connectors, preparations for expropriations (mostly a meter of frontyards in most places), public consultation sessions. Actual work is being done, funded from the LRT fund! I think first digging will likely ramp up to 2018+ for prep like utility relocations, with full-throttle construction 2019+ (add/subtract a year, give or take).

The City Hall circus sideshow (the 'reaffirmation') is already well on its way to likely being a vote of 11-of-15 this coming September or October. Behind the scenes, it's treated fully as a done-deal. Even if that sideshow fails, they would have to raise a "STOP WORK" motion to stop the monies being spent, and then refund Metrolinx of the monies already being spent -- Hamilton LRT is currently at full throttle behind the scenes.

The 407 Rail Bypass needs to be researched to at least the same exacting shovel-ready level as these surprisingly extensive 2011 Hamilton LRT plans -- all completely funded by the municipal tax dollar. Hamilton, alone, spent many millions of municipal dollars on studying LRT -- yet four municipalities only spent $80,000 on that pre-pre-feasibility reportette on the Bypass. Steve, I understand your skepticism, I really do, Steve. But, currently, it actually doesn't really matter who funds the detailed studies, before Federal funds the construction. Just get the detailed study funded ASAP -- whatever level of government(s) it takes to accelerate the study.

Thanks to all that constant studying that Hamilton did on LRT, Ontario granted a 100% funding -- shocking a council that was already half-hearted about it.

From what I can see, almost half of the Big Move Projects had some municipal funding beginnings to help accelerate it to being funded by other levels of government. I dare you to research ... I've already researched Hamilton LRT for you above.

 

[steveintoronto]

We don't know yet if it needs Federal funding or not.

And I don't know yet if my rocket to Pluto has enough gas.

I would agree it's likely but we're both only speculating at this point and you haven't produced any evidence. We both at this point only have viewpoints.

So now you agree you're "speculating". That's exactly the point I was making.

Where is the money? I would assume they have a rough idea and the study will nail down a specific figure. That's the point of doing a study.

Now you're really going in circles and prevaricating.

Here's the announcement in writing on a Provincial website: https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2016/06/ontario-expanding-go-rail-service-to-waterloo-region.html

"Announcement"? You claimed the 'agreement' was on the website.

Allandale25 said: ↑
Also, the commitment made by the government is in writing. It's on a Provincial website.

I've viewed that over ten times prior. OK, here's my sales slip for the swampland. I'll send you the account number for you to electronically deposit your payment to by personal message. I wouldn't cheat you, honest. I've just announced it, so that means it's going to happen.

[...]
Kitchener-Waterloo MPP and NDP finance critic Catherine Fife said Tuesday's announcement was a start, but there's still a long way to go before the needs of commuters are met.

"The key is connectivity – getting people to their jobs in Kitchener-Waterloo in the morning and home again," Fife said in a release.

"To do that, Waterloo Region needs two-way GO service. While today's agreement-in-principle helps, without a funding commitment for a bypass that will cost billions, without a proposed route, without an environmental assessment, without a commitment from the federal government, there is little reason to believe that the premier's promise to deliver all-day, two-way GO rail by 2024 is any more solid that the previous promise to deliver all-day, two-way GO rail by 2019."[...]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitch...e-kitchener-toronto-wynne-announces-1.3634285

But don't worry! If we all hold hands and click our heels together, we can get back to Kansas...

 

[Allandale25]

And I don't know yet if my rocket to Pluto has enough gas.

So now you agree you're "speculating". That's exactly the point I was making.

I was speculating on the level of potential funding from the Feds not on whether the project will go forward.

Now you're really going in circles and prevaricating.

Given the scale and complexity of the project I think a detailed study to refine the budget makes sense. Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

"Announcement"? You claimed the "Agreement" was on the website.

Announcement of the Agreement. You implied that there were nothing in writing. I provided a link. We disagree on the trustworthiness what we do have in writing.

 

[drum118]

I was thinking about that, and I know what the come-back from other posters is going to be: (gist) "Well it's confidential, and the parties agreed to keep it that way".

Classic! So what politicos do *is wave the agreement to the public* to (ostensibly) prove the existence of an Agreement in Writing...not "In Principle" which is meaningless.

Perhaps I've been involved in politics and dealing with politicos a lot longer than some here. But I do have some swampland for sale, real cheap, we can do an agreement right here in this forum. You don't trust me?

Agreement with words and a handshake is one thing, but the written and sign agreement is something different. Until there is a sign agreement in detail, everything is talk only.

At the same time, you don't go out and start buying land when you don't know if there will be agreement nor you know the final EA approve route. Some land could be bought at the connection point.

The money to build this Halton-Peel Bypass has to come from some where in the approved funding for all the projects, which projects will get drop because of this bypass now??? How is that going to effect the "BIG" picture???

The time it will take to build the bypass, will mean the building of other projects will be done that may have save some money if the bypass was built first. You can stop building or planning project that will be in service by 2024 on the hope of this bypass and to do this will only put us further behind than we are now.