GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[crs1026]

I would expect the gap between the 'agreement in principle' announcement for the bypass and the formal executed legal agreement to be more than two months, and to have neither progress updates nor hard deadlines .... because that's how negotiation works. So the bypass is the one initiative I would cut ML some slack on right now. I do have confidence it is now on the to-do list, because it stands in the way of progress on the kitchener service - very hard to back away from.

The Backgrounder to the GTHA report

http://movethegtha.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AreWeThereYet_Backgrounder.pdf

focuses on funding, which is an obvious important step and sign of commitment. By the GTHA's tally, there is now funding for 592 of 1395 kms of the proposed transit reflected in the Big Move and subsequent amendments. Their agenda is increasing the envelope, which is great. The statistic that grabs me is - by their tally, we have added only 52 kms of completed transit since 2008. Lots is in progress, but has been for a very long time. It's not unreasonable to expect that projects which have been 'launched' would have firm completion metrics. Some may only be launched in spirit.

As a wise man once said - trust, but verify.

- Paul

 

[steveintoronto]

So the bypass is the one initiative I would cut ML some slack on right now. I do have confidence it is now on the to-do list, because it stands in the way of progress on the kitchener service - very hard to back away from.
- Paul

I'm the largest advocate of the Missing Link possible, contingent on not taking the CN only "freight bypass" seriously. Without any release of details what-so-ever, or even an *outline* of what the "Agreement in Principle" is, everything remains conjecture. Meantime, "stands in the way of progress on the Kitchener service" remains an excuse for not doing much else along that corridor. That makes sense *if* there is indeed progress on discussions toward a binding agreement. So far, nothing. And the hold-up is....let me guess: Funding.

From the first paragraph of the parent report your linked addendum is subsidiary to:

A report released on August 16, 2016 by Move the GTHA reveals a $30 billion capital funding gap to build our rapid regional transportation network, plus billions more needed for operations, maintenance and rehabilitation.

http://movethegtha.com/2016/08/16/are-we-there-yet/

Not quite the position espoused by others. And the promises keep on coming. What's interesting in the pdf (which I won't quote, as my reader is a lesser Adobe version that doesn't re-format) is the pointing out of how little the Feds have actually committed, contrary to hype. What little the Harper regime put on the table has now been withdrawn, and there's no knowing of what is forthcoming from the present regime. Some is, but far from being enough to finance a "Freight By-Pass"...let alone "The Missing Link".

Swampland still for sale! I'm optimistic it will sell, so get your offers in now folks! Need the money for my spaceship, getting a grant from the Feds to help finance it....

 

[rbt]

The statistic that grabs me is - by their tally, we have added only 52 kms of completed transit since 2008. Lots is in progress, but has been for a very long time.

That's not really surprising. This was, and possibly still is, the RER spending plan. Big capital spending begins in 2017 so it's not at all surprising that little is currently considered "finished".

 

[crs1026]

The interesting thing with that graph is, it's far more plausible to assume additional funding after 2021 than before. Yet according to the press releases all the projects have projected timelines around 2022-2023. Therein lies the fiction that bugs some of us (well, me, anyways...) .... the likely timeline is further to the right than the political level or ML are admitting. Sure, things slip.... but are we being honest from the beginning about how long things will take?

@Drum's comment has merit here too.....if the bypass is pursued as a priority, what part of this spending is deferred to accommodate it?

- Paul

 

[rbt]

Yet according to the press releases all the projects have projected timelines around 2022-2023.

Check the red "revenue" line. That uptick starting 2023 will represent launch of RER for this funding plan. Shifting it 6 months in either direction doesn't make much difference. Actually, I'll be amazed if Metrolinx hit within 24 months of target even with infinite funding, but I expect Liberals (if in power) will follow that spending schedule anyway.

Also, it's important to note this represents cashflows. Some spending comes a little bit after contract completion which frequently happens after launch. UPX wasn't actually finished for something like 8 months after launch.

That said, I agree the 2023 timeline on all-day frequent Kitchener service is very optimistic if the bypass is a pre-requisite. MTO is to launch the HSR EA this fall right? I wouldn't be surprised if the bypass appears in that package and comes from non-GTHA revenue via the MTO budget. The HSR feasibility study shows they'll be handling track chunks through (Guelph, Acton, and Pearson connection) so the bypass would be just another chunk.

 

[Allandale25]

Very well written. Thanks for sharing that perspective.

I would expect the gap between the 'agreement in principle' announcement for the bypass and the formal executed legal agreement to be more than two months, and to have neither progress updates nor hard deadlines .... because that's how negotiation works. So the bypass is the one initiative I would cut ML some slack on right now.

As a wise man once said - trust, but verify.

- Paul

 

[steveintoronto]

MTO is to launch the HSR EA this fall right?

"Launch?" The *report* is due November, there's absolutely no guessing what it will contain.

I suspect a complete climbdown, but we'll soon find out. This Lib MPP claims October:

Ontario government wants high-speed rail proposal by October, MP says
CBC News Posted: Feb 09, 2016 3:50 PM ET Last Updated: Feb 09, 2016 4:19 PM ET

The Ontario government wants to see a proposal completed for a Toronto-to-Windsor high-speed rail project by October, according to a London-area MP.

The governing Liberals have been consulting with various stakeholders along the Toronto-to-Windsor corridor this month, as they map out what the proposed rail project could look like.

Karen Vecchio, the newly elected MP for Elgin-Middlesex-London, was at a stakeholders meeting held in London on Tuesday afternoon.
[...]
Jeff Casello, an associate professor at the University of Waterloo, believes it is definitely possible for the province to establish high-speed rail between Toronto and Windsor.

"Is it feasible? It absolutely is. And if you ask me is it necessary, I think it absolutely is necessary as well," he told CBC News in a telephone interview on Tuesday.

But he said what gets built will depend on what the province wants to spend.

"I think the province needs to start thinking about, you know, what are the levels of investment they want to make and what's the level of quality of service they want to operate," he said.

In October, the provincial government appointed David Collenette as its special adviser for high-speed rail.

Collenette, who was at the Tuesday meeting in London, has been tasked with looking at economic development opportunities, as well as with looking at the experience of high-speed rail in other places around the world. The government says he will also give advice on possible financing models for this project.

The government says the rail project will be part of the $130 billion the province is spending on infrastructure over a 10-year period.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/winds...ed-rail-proposal-by-october-mp-says-1.3440700

The Law of Diminishing Reality takes hold (apologies to Diminishing Utility)

Edit to Add: And here it is diminishing already:
Dec 10, 2014

[...]In an interview earlier this week, Del Duca distanced himself from the cost and fare estimates included in First Class Partnership's report, saying a four to six year-long environmental assessment process, beginning in 2015, would provide more insight into costs and other project specifics. The provincial government is now proposing the high speed rail line could end in Windsor rather than London.[...]

http://www.therecord.com/news-story...-london-high-speed-rail-line-unusually-easy-/

Environmental assessment ordered for Ontario high-speed rail
Route would connect Windsor, London, Kitchener-Waterloo and Toronto
CBC News Posted: Dec 05, 2014 11:37 AM ET
[...]
The province has ordered an environmental assessment for a high-speed rail line connecting Windsor, London, Kitchener and Toronto.

• High-speed rail to Toronto for as low as $10? Liberals say yes
  
  
• Kitchener high speed rail proposal: a reality check
  
  
• Liberals promise high speed rail in Kitchener within 10 years
  

The environmental assessment would determine the most appropriate route, examine technology options for the future railroad and determine what effect the route could have on the environment.

“There’s huge upside here,” Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca said Friday. “There’s huge economic development potential here by using high speed rail and the technology involved to physically link all of Southwestern Ontario to Toronto, in terms of job creation.”

While Del Duca was keen to extol the economic bonanza a Windsor-Toronto high-speed link would bring, he wasn't so keen on committing to an exact date for when the trains could actually be running.

"In the next four to six years we’re going to do the work to put us in a position to make the decision about how long it will take to get the trains running," he said.

"Nothing can be done until the environmental assessment has been completed."

Del Duca's latest comments suggest a less specific timeline than the one his predecessor alluded to before the June 12 election.

Glen Murray, who was transportation minister at the time, a London to Toronto high-speed train would cost between $2 to 3 billion and would take a decade to complete.

Del Duca did not say how much the assessment would cost, but he said the project has been budgeted. Consultations for the environmental assessment will begin in early 2015.[...]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitch...ordered-for-ontario-high-speed-rail-1.2861890

I'd say the train is going to be late, if it ever comes at all...

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Construction on south Exhibition station platform, including accessibility ramp is 95% done. North side is close too. From looking at the progress I'd say opening is only a few days away. (All pictures of south side)

 

[EastYorkTTCFan]

I took a ride on 4423 the other day to the exhibition grounds and you can see a bit of the retaining wall from the TTC side of it.

 

[cplchanb]

Construction on south Exhibition station platform, including accessibility ramp is 95% done. North side is close too. From looking at the progress I'd say opening is only a few days away. (All pictures of south side)

Thats a temporary structure right?

 

[steveintoronto]

Thats a temporary structure right?

lol..time will tell.

 

[nfitz]

Thats a temporary structure right?

Yes - they still have to rip up the entire eastern part of the platform. It's no where near done, let alone 95%.

Presumably they will shift the platform to the west, use this new temporary ramp, and then rip up the east, and rebuild that, including the permanent ramp.

And then in a few years, probably rip up the building at the south end of the stairwell, with the new proposal to extend the streetcar tracks from Exhibition through there to Dufferin loop, across the new Dufferin bridge.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Yes - they still have to rip up the entire eastern part of the platform. It's no where near done, let alone 95%.

Presumably they will shift the platform to the west, use this new temporary ramp, and then rip up the east, and rebuild that, including the permanent ramp.

And then in a few years, probably rip up the building at the south end of the stairwell, with the new proposal to extend the streetcar tracks from Exhibition through there to Dufferin loop, across the new Dufferin bridge.

My understanding is that the eastern platform was the temporary platform. The new western part was re-built so the trains can now be "centered" on the platform in relation to the Ex entrance, and it is my understanding that this will be the permanent arrangement as to allow easier access to the trains.

The station is scheduled to be completed in 2017, and with construction now moving at a good pace this actually seems decently reasonable.

 

[drum118]

My understanding is that the eastern platform was the temporary platform. The new western part was re-built so the trains can now be "centered" on the platform in relation to the Ex entrance, and it is my understanding that this will be the permanent arrangement as to allow easier access to the trains.

The station is scheduled to be completed in 2017, and with construction now moving at a good pace this actually seems decently reasonable.

That is correct for the eastbound platform.

The westbound was shifted years ago to allow for the building of the 5th track and will be wider in the west than before.

The new platforms is to have snow melting system.

Don't see any platforms being extended to Dufferin St once a new Dufferin streetcar track is built on it, since there will be no stop there. The EX will be the stop. Moreso, no room for the westbound. If a stop is added at Dufferin, it will be an east-west to allow interchange with the new west line going to the Humber and that is decades off.

As for completion, I will believe once I see it done since it years late now.

 

[nfitz]

The new western part was re-built so the trains can now be "centered" on the platform in relation to the Ex entrance, and it is my understanding that this will be the permanent arrangement as to allow easier access to the trains.

Then why the wooden ramp?