Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

A) You mean like how all of the streetcars and current subway cars are all a unique gauge?

Yes.

B) You know you can make them longer... that is how trains work.

Not so easily; there are constraints on the station length.

C) So, our kids or grand kids can whine about it then. The system is good, they just need new cars. What if we never replaced the CLRV and the ALRV cars?

Locals (downtowners) love their streetcars, thus the city keeps them and buys new cars as needed. That makes perfect sense.

Not exactly the case with SRT.

It is probably cheaper to just replace the current cars with new cars that are the same size.

Probably true, but that limits the capacity somewhat. You still can get more than the current SRT capacity, simply by having more trains and running them more frequently. But, not much more capacity, as both the frequency and the length of trains will be constrained.

 

[micheal_can]

Yes.

Not so easily; there are constraints on the station length.

Locals (downtowners) love their streetcars, thus the city keeps them and buys new cars as needed. That makes perfect sense.
Not exactly the case with SRT.

Probably true, but that limits the capacity somewhat. You still can get more than the current SRT capacity, simply by having more trains and running them more frequently. But, not much more capacity, as both the frequency and the length of trains will be constrained.

You do know that it is more expensive to get a car that is TTC gauge than standard gauge?

You know, station platforms can be extended.

The SRT has been the punching bag of politicians. Just imagine if it were embraced?

Frequency is limited because they have to be controlled by humans and not ATC as they are designed. Why not run the line as it should be?
Are the trains the longest that can run with the current platform lengths?

 

[JSF-1]

Kennedy's single track layout also bottlenecks the entire line. We can get all the new trains we want and kick the operators out, but even then you may only be able to get at most 1 or 2 more trains on the line because of Kennedy. To truly fix the SRT with new vehicles Kennedy station would need to be dealt with.

 

[micheal_can]

Kennedy's single track layout also bottlenecks the entire line. We can get all the new trains we want and kick the operators out, but even then you may only be able to get at most 1 or 2 more trains on the line because of Kennedy. To truly fix the SRT with new vehicles Kennedy station would need to be dealt with.

So, with new trains, and the upgrades to Kennedy Station, would that cost less than $3 billion?

 

[44 North]

The TTC usually classifies a corridor that has upwards of 10k PPHPD to be justified for a subway (I think all their metrics should be completely lowered to compensate for growth) while it really should be 6-7K PPHPD (because they vastly overstate the capacity of a Flexity). Based on these metrics (which are probably overly optimistic), the Scarborough corridor is justified in having a subway.

If you flip through old docs somewhat chronologically it would seem the justification for meeting 6-car subway tech went from 20kpphpd, to 15, to 10, then basically down to unknown. Pretty sure the amendment to extend to Vaughan had no numbers offered. It did early on, was quickly rejected. Then some years later was backroom greenlit no questions asked. In other words SSE is safe in terms of justification for a subway. Whether that subway is better than another alternative offering more length, more stations, more land value uplift, with service frequency better than a Line 2 extension I guess is more the argument.

But agreed, converting rolling stock to MkIII would be less expensive than the odd plan to use low-floor Flexity LRVs. I'm a firm believer that we could've ripped out the LIM part and simply ordered a variant of the Movia (e.g T1/TR). Could be identical to what we have on Lines 1,2, and 4, just narrower by 50cm.

Probably true, but that limits the capacity somewhat. You still can get more than the current SRT capacity, simply by having more trains and running them more frequently. But, not much more capacity, as both the frequency and the length of trains will be constrained.

Pretty sure the capacity offered by a vehicle upgrade would be more than sufficient. The original proposal for upgrading Line 3 wasn't merely a small station expansion and re-working Ellesmere curve. Rather involved the real-deal in terms of station expansion, termini improvement, and subsequent massive capacity upgrade. Would be like 20kpphpd at least, which I'm sure could be achieved with the 35yo computerized signalling used today. And all this for less than the price of converting to LFLRVs.

 

[JSF-1]

So, with new trains, and the upgrades to Kennedy Station, would that cost less than $3 billion?

Possibly? I really can't answer that question. Even when the TTC was looking into upgrading the line to MK.II trains back in 2006 I don't recall them ever getting far enough into the plan to examining the Kennedy situation. I do know that Kennedy is a really big thorn in the SRT's side and any attempt to increase service or extend the line would have to overcome that obstacle. Kennedy wasn't designed to be an ICTS station but an LRT station, and the bigger Mk. II and now Mk.III would not be able to handle the curve into the station.

 

[44 North]

Possibly? I really can't answer that question. Even when the TTC was looking into upgrading the line to MK.II trains back in 2006 I don't recall them ever getting far enough into the plan to examining the Kennedy situation. I do know that Kennedy is a really big thorn in the SRT's side and any attempt to increase service or extend the line would have to overcome that obstacle. Kennedy wasn't designed to be an ICTS station but an LRT station, and the bigger Mk. II and now Mk.III would not be able to handle the curve into the station.

They certainly did get far enough that Kennedy was very much examined and a solution offered. The terminus built in the 80s was quick and dirty and grossly insufficient, which was well known going into any expansion plan long before '06. The docs are available, and they're not all that old. Unfortunately the upgrade project got pushed aside for other projects that were more politically popular. Unfortunate, but does make a bit of sense. Shiny new lines elsewhere, or upgrade a line that already exists. Most higher-level pols would choose the former.

 

[OneCity]

The SRT has been the punching bag of politicians. Just imagine if it were embraced?

The SRT has punched itself:

• the alignment goes thru a ghost town on the rail corridor
• most stops are hidden and placed in location that are not walkable
• there's a forced transfer that disconnects Scarborough Centre from the City main infrastructure

The only place the RT sells itself as is around the City Centre itself. The poor maintenance wasn't the only issue as the shabby line really sold itself.


Where as the McCowan subway could:

• provide far more central stop locations on Lawrence and possibly Eglinton
• revitalize the tired Eglinton-Brimley-Danforth corners to allow density become a very walkable urban area
• provide rapid access to Scarborough's major hospital and begin transform the near by area and south corners
• provide a quick connect for the busy Lawrence bus routes that currently force commuters off on the RT and a stop later at of again Kennedy or force them to detour direct to Kennedy station
• provide a seamless connection from Downtown to Scarborough Centre

Most residents would have been content atleast eliminating the transfer to connect the Centre as in improved connection to the City. That opportunity was lost a handful of times, we are now moving on with full support and this current corridor albeit the most expensive will be easily embraced for the long term future and will be amazing for the area if the stops are added back in by the Province.

 

[rbt]

Fair enough; let's see where it goes.

Indeed. It's bound to be interesting either way.

I would think that signals alone for a 6.5 km section of line cannot cost $2.5B or anything close to that. So, that's probably the cost of converting the whole BD line to the new signal system. That cost isn't really mandatory for the subway extension.

They just don't want to build the new section with old signal system and then re-do together with the rest of line, but technically they can do exactly that if they decide they can't afford the new signals.

It's more than just not wanting to. They're kinda mandatory or in 2025 we may start seeing commute issues as large as exist on the SRT today. As such, I hope they're higher up in the funding priority line as sacrificing service between Kennedy and Kipling to extend service doesn't seem wise (we've done that before with the subway system and it resulted in deaths).

In 2026 the T1's will start hitting 30 years old. SRT vehicles hit 30 years old in 2015; T1s are not expected to be more reliable at old age than SRT vehicles are.

In 2025 the some parts of BD signalling will turn 50 years old and failure rates through that central portion will increase rapidly.

For reliable service on the extension, signalling needs to be funded by 2020 and rolling stock around 2021 for the entirety of Line 2. Ford's 2019/2020 budget will be telling; it should top-up federal funding to cover these items so he can declare all roadblocks out of the way.

 

[rbt]

Possibly? I really can't answer that question. Even when the TTC was looking into upgrading the line to MK.II trains back in 2006 I don't recall them ever getting far enough into the plan to examining the Kennedy situation.

The 2006 Soberman report recommended that Kennedy be adjusted for both the SRT and LRT options. IIRC (as I cannot find the report online to confirm), Kennedy re-structuring was one cost items in the $350M (2006 dollars) SRT rebuild option (back when the subway extension was $1.2B).

 

[steveintoronto]

There's also other costs besides the Line 2 ATC installation, which has hit a very recent roadblock:

[...]
For the Base Budget, the subway represents about $5 billion over ten years. This includes almost nothing for new lines (only a few small studies) and this cost is overwhelmingly just “to keep the lights on”. Note that this is separate from costs charged to the operating budget of day-to-day maintenance, costs that would remain with the City under an uploading scenario.

The list of additional items is missing one key piece: the construction of a new subway yard and carhouse at Kipling. The budget includes funding to buy the property (acquisition is already in progress), but not to build anything on it. This yard is essential to the fleet replacement on Line 2 which, in turn, is a pre-requisite to the opening of the Scarborough Subway with ATC signalling.

Leaving aside the add-ons, the Base Budget comes in at about $500 million/year for the subway including the currently unfunded portion. This would be partly offset by existing subsidies:

• Of the provincial gas tax allocation to Toronto, the City allocates about $70 million to capital projects. Taking the Base as being about 50% subway, then $35m of the provincial money might be held back.
• Similarly, the federal government gives Toronto about $160 million in gas tax annually, of which $80m could be viewed as “subway” dollars. Whether the Feds would look kindly on Queen’s Park scooping a “municipal” transit subsidy remains to be seen.

Between them, these two subsidies would reduce the annual upload to around $385 million, rather more than the $160 million the Tories cite. Moreover, the provincial component does not vanish, only the need to send money to the City as a capital subsidy. Ontario would still be on the hook for about $420 million per year.

PTIF is not much help here because the Phase 1 PTIF money is largely going to the bus fleet’s rejuvenation, and a lot of Phase 2 will probably go to the big construction projects, not capital maintenance.
[...]

https://stevemunro.ca/2018/06/04/so-you-want-to-own-a-subway-2018-edition/

[...]
This plan does not align with construction plans in various ways:

• The SSE extension service is shown as operating effective in 2023, a date long-known to be unachievable. The opening is now tentatively aimed at 2026.
• Procurement of replacement cars is shown as starting in 2026 and running through 2030. This aligns with a roughly 30-year lifespan for the T1 fleet.
• Plans for ATC on Line 2 now show this project completing in 2024, and the SSE would be built as an ATC-only facility. Therefore, a new fleet must be completely in place before the SSE can open.
• The total number of trains the TTC would have by 2031 is less than what they claim to need (69 vs 71).

Accelerating the provision of a new fleet would be challenging on the basis of a completely new tender and design, whereas resuming production of the TR trains would avoid the need for prototyping. However, this would only be possible with a sole source contract to Bombardier who are not the TTC’s favourite supplier at the moment. Moreover, the entire project would shift forward and add pressure to spending during a period when the City does not wish to incur any new debt to finance capital projects.

There is no funding in the City’s Capital Budget for these trains. The seven trains shown in the fleet plan for “SSE procurement” are not included in the SSE budget.
[...]

https://stevemunro.ca/2017/07/13/ttc-board-discovers-cost-of-bloor-danforth-subway-renovation/

 

[sixrings]

Sourcing Steve Munro is not going to win people over. These people think he hates scarborough despite working there for years

 

[steveintoronto]

Sourcing Steve Munro is not going to win people over. These people think he hates scarborough despite working there for years

I don't care what they think, I'm sourcing reference. They think everyone hates them because they're so hard done by and life is unfair. The Free Market hates them too, and yet they think Ford will be their saviour. They're in for a shock.

Subways aren't the answer, for Scarborough, the Relief Line, for Richmond Hill, or Vaughan, the latter being a massive mistake. The present subway pre TYSSE was bursting at the seams as it was, and badly in need of investment, not expansion. There's far better ways to serve regions, and doing it by bypassing the present groaning infrastructure.

 

[sixrings]

The SRT has punched itself:

• the alignment goes thru a ghost town on the rail corridor
• most stops are hidden and placed in location that are not walkable
• there's a forced transfer that disconnects Scarborough Centre from the City main infrastructure

The only place the RT sells itself as is around the City Centre itself. The poor maintenance wasn't the only issue as the shabby line really sold itself.

Yet didn't Subway advocates advocate for this same corridor to save money. So only your third point has any validity but even that is a stretch as the transfer would have been made much easier.

Where as the McCowan subway could:

• provide far more central stop locations on Lawrence and possibly Eglinton
• revitalize the tired Eglinton-Brimley-Danforth corners to allow density become a very walkable urban area
• provide rapid access to Scarborough's major hospital and begin transform the near by area and south corners
• provide a quick connect for the busy Lawrence bus routes that currently force commuters off on the RT and a stop later at of again Kennedy or force them to detour direct to Kennedy station
• provide a seamless connection from Downtown to Scarborough Centre

Most residents would have been content atleast eliminating the transfer to connect the Centre as in improved connection to the City. That opportunity was lost a handful of times, we are now moving on with full support and this current corridor albeit the most expensive will be easily embraced for the long term future and will be amazing for the area if the stops are added back in by the Province.

I thought the Eglinton East LRT was supposed to add transit and revitalization (sounds like a social welfare project which TC was critiqued on) to the Eglinton-Brimley-Danforth area. Also hasn't it been made official that they can't put in a Lawrence stop for several reasons.

 

[OneCity]

I don't care what they think

There is another thread to vent your subway displeasure, opinions and the polls you find that support your beliefs. I'll be happy to move this over and debate further over there as it seems this thread is turning back into Scarborough resident bashing and generalizations along with personal speculations against anything that has been said in a fairly straight foward, well supported political mandate on transit in this City.

Since this nonsense has become the topic I'll respond in defense as I feel that many residents here are actually tired of being told what to think by people who don't even live here, or used to live here, or have family here and as you say don't care what they think. This problem is what actually gives Politicians like Tory and Ford so much support for calling it out.

Unlike the previous Ford this one actually has alot of power and has been clear on this line. Let's actually see what he does before speculating against the tide. Cheaper connected options were already tabled and rejected so It's currently a McCowan corrdor subway from all relevant statements, support and design progress.

Also this individual well connected line to the Centre is only a small part albeit important part of a revitalization plan that is needed and will provide many benefits the RT never could for this specific line. No one ever claimed it to be the start and end to address all issues as you imply. All other needs can be addressed separately with greater focus and hopefully the majority who actually live here are better respected on the decisons in the future.