Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[sixrings]

Wait is the new pro subway argument that we've gone this far and it will cost so much to cancel it and revert to LRT. Why didn't cancelling fees mean anything when we were cancelling LRT contracts?

 

[Rainforest]

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That just proves the LRT option has sufficient capacity, i.e. subway is not mandatory to handle the demand. That's a common knowledge anyway.

Doesn't mean the subway extension is not desirable. It is popular, it is affordable, so it will be built.

 

[steveintoronto]

Wait is the new pro subway argument that we've gone this far and it will cost so much to cancel it and revert to LRT. Why didn't cancelling fees mean anything when we were cancelling LRT contracts?

There's rumour of more 'hidden' reports yet to be released but applied for under FOI by some journalists.

There's also the problem for Ford that as he starts slashing Metrolinx brass further (which I actually agree with, but not by him) more reports will 'accidently' see the light of day. And then there's the civic election on the horizon.

And of course, contrary to at least one poster's claim, no committed funding. What's been committed so far is contingent on the City coming up with one third. The Province, contrary to Ford's Pharts, would like nothing better than to pull that commitment back. And then the Feds will too, or more likely, push a more rational proposal, along with private capital.

 

[steveintoronto]

That just proves the LRT option has sufficient capacity, i.e. subway is not mandatory to handle the demand. That's a common knowledge anyway.

Doesn't mean the subway extension is not desirable. It is popular, it is affordable, so it will be built.

And pigs fly...

 

[Rainforest]

You missed the other option. We can plan for a subway, including discussions of various restructurings to make it possible (like McGuinty's promise to upload the subway capital to the province for accounting purposes) AND continue to abuse the SRT as is until some structural engineer orders it closed to be replaced by buses via a cobbled together BRT.

In short, after 12 years of the subway option being on the table, through 3 mayors and 3 premiers, nobody has actually stepped forward with full funding. We're already 3 years past the original deadline; every politician at the table is clearly asking themselves if they can delay spending outside of their current term and the answer thus far has been yes they can.

I do hope that changes and Line 2 gets uploaded to the province, new signalling system, new rolling stock, and the extension. I'm certainly not banking my personal livelihood on it coming through anytime soon though.

I trust your knowledge and experience, but in this particular case, would be very surprised if SSE construction doesn't begin within a few years.

Funding commitments exist, from the provincial, federal, and municipal governments. Any shortcomings are affordable for the provincial government. All three major political parties are on-board (NDP may be only reluctantly on board, but still).

The recent elections winner promised subways all over the place. While there is no doubts he will fail to build the majority of them, it doesn't seem likely he will fail right on the very first item from his list.

The scope may be in question. He promises to build with 3 stops, plus Sheppard for full measure, but might end up building only SSE, and with only one or two stops. Nothing at all would be a highly surprising outcome though.

 

[Rainforest]

And pigs fly...

Well noone can prevent you from dreaming about this project cancellation.

And of course, contrary to at least one poster's claim, no committed funding. What's been committed so far is contingent on the City coming up with one third. The Province, contrary to Ford's Pharts, would like nothing better than to pull that commitment back. And then the Feds will too, or more likely, push a more rational proposal, along with private capital.

The Feds will not push anything at all. In any case, they will let the Province and the City sort it out, and then the Feds come up with their contribution (or not).

The Province consists of 8+ million people and of course they all would like different things. However, the official position of the Province is what the current premier wants, whether his persona is likeable or not.

Of course no law of physics prohibits him from promising 3 or 5 or 7 subway lines and failing to build each and every of them; but it's not likely and would consitute a massive failure on his part. So, let's wait and see.

 

[steveintoronto]

That just proves the LRT option has sufficient capacity, i.e. subway is not mandatory to handle the demand. That's a common knowledge anyway. Doesn't mean the subway extension is not desirable. It is popular, it is affordable, so it will be built.

Any shortcomings are affordable for the provincial government.

So let's see...A Premier who campaigned on tax cuts, slashing the deficit and debt, not catering to "the elites"...and you think it likely that the Tooth Fairy is going to pledge to fund $Bs in extra costs, let alone the City's share, to build a subway when you yourself admit: "That just proves the LRT option has sufficient capacity, i.e. subway is not mandatory to handle the demand. That's a common knowledge anyway."

And the rest of the Province will accept that? OK...bring it on. lol...and the knives. The Palace Coup is arriving at Queen's Park Station before it's even scheduled.

Can you make it wait long enough for me to run out and get the popcorn?

 

[OneCity]

May 2017

6 in 10 Torontonians (Not Scarborough residents) Approve the subway

What I also find interesting is that only 20% disapprove. Ive also seen Kouvalis quoted recently stating hes never seen support ever favour the transit City LRT plan.

Anyhow you know what I think of polls take them with a grain. But the ones that are actually being used repeatedly by winning candidates are worth paying far greater attention too instead of those feeding bias political journalists narrative.

The democratic numbers are more of an eye-opener when you see 99% winning Politicians with subway support after Scarborough had a non stop transfer LRT propaganda blitz for over a decade in our local Metroland and City Left media. Because of this ongoing narrative I can see why some posters are so misled from the realm democratic reality. And contrary to what some here want to believe and to what those other polls imply this subway line is the closest thing to a guarantee weve ever seen. The reality the support is overwhelming with 99% local political support from all levels and political stripes, Mayor, Premier and even all runners up for both.

 

[micheal_can]

Yes, but a) custom-made small cars will cost more to purchase, b) small cars will limit the capacity.

And c) the city will have re-hash the same subway vs LRT (vs some new technology?) debate 25 or 30 years from now, when the new SRT cars become old again.

Hence, my preference is to build the subway and be done with it. The funding is aligned right this time.

A) You mean like how all of the streetcars and current subway cars are all a unique gauge?

B) You know you can make them longer... that is how trains work.

C) So, our kids or grand kids can whine about it then. The system is good, they just need new cars. What if we never replaced the CLRV and the ALRV cars?

It is probably cheaper to just replace the current cars with new cars that are the same size.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Refurbishing isn't cheap, either. Large new Mark cars will require a significant rebuild of the Ellesmere-Midland curve.

It's still more cost effective than spending 2 billion for the LRT.

That's a fraction of the Sheppard Line even at about 50,000 per day.

no...the sheppard line gets 50,000 Passengers per day, that's a sum of all users. @Rainforest is using the metric of PPHPD -- Passengers per hour per direction/Passengers per hour Peak direction. The TTC usually classifies a corridor that has upwards of 10k PPHPD to be justified for a subway (I think all their metrics should be completely lowered to compensate for growth) while it really should be 6-7K PPHPD (because they vastly overstate the capacity of a Flexity). Based on these metrics (which are probably overly optimistic), the Scarborough corridor is justified in having a subway.

 

[rbt]

Funding commitments exist, from the provincial, federal, and municipal governments. Any shortcomings are affordable for the provincial government. All three major political parties are on-board (NDP may be only reluctantly on board, but still).

Partial commitments exist; signals, rolling stock, etc. (roughly $2.5B IIRC) remain without funding commitments and for the timelines that have been discussed these are starting to become critical path items.

Either way, current provincial borrowing limits to maintain our credit rating + a recession will constrain choices. It'll take some very clever manoeuvring to sell Ontario conservatives on a GTA oriented capital program spending spree over something like an HST cut; and that's assuming Ford's first budget is balanced and not starting from a negative position.


I have no read on Ford at all; but other than Oosterhoff I've not seem much excitement over capital works for non-urban MPPs. I would be far more confident if Ford's first budget put ~$5B into a trust account under the cities control for this project.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Partial commitments exist; signals, rolling stock, etc. (roughly $2.5B IIRC) remain without funding commitments and for the timelines that have been discussed these are starting to become critical path items.

Either way, current provincial borrowing limits to maintain our credit rating + a recession will constrain choices. It'll take some very clever manoeuvring to sell Ontario conservatives on a GTA oriented capital program spending spree over something like an HST cut; and that's assuming Ford's first budget is balanced and not starting from a negative position.


I have no read on Ford at all; but other than Oosterhoff I've not seem much excitement over capital works for non-urban MPPs. I would be far more confident if Ford's first budget put ~$5B into a trust account under the cities control for this project.

Wasn't the ATC conversion of Line 2 covered by the provincial funding of 5 billion dollars before the election, and the new rolling stock for line 2 likely being covered by PTIF or some equivalent?

 

[Rainforest]

Partial commitments exist; signals, rolling stock, etc. (roughly $2.5B IIRC) remain without funding commitments and for the timelines that have been discussed these are starting to become critical path items.

Either way, current provincial borrowing limits to maintain our credit rating + a recession will constrain choices. It'll take some very clever manoeuvring to sell Ontario conservatives on a GTA oriented capital program spending spree over something like an HST cut; and that's assuming Ford's first budget is balanced and not starting from a negative position.

I have no read on Ford at all; but other than Oosterhoff I've not seem much excitement over capital works for non-urban MPPs. I would be far more confident if Ford's first budget put ~$5B into a trust account under the cities control for this project.

Fair enough; let's see where it goes.

I would think that signals alone for a 6.5 km section of line cannot cost $2.5B or anything close to that. So, that's probably the cost of converting the whole BD line to the new signal system. That cost isn't really mandatory for the subway extension.

They just don't want to build the new section with old signal system and then re-do together with the rest of line, but technically they can do exactly that if they decide they can't afford the new signals.

 

[Rainforest]

So let's see...A Premier who campaigned on tax cuts, slashing the deficit and debt, not catering to "the elites"...and you think it likely that the Tooth Fairy is going to pledge to fund $Bs in extra costs, let alone the City's share, to build a subway when you yourself admit: "That just proves the LRT option has sufficient capacity, i.e. subway is not mandatory to handle the demand. That's a common knowledge anyway."

And the rest of the Province will accept that? OK...bring it on. lol...and the knives. The Palace Coup is arriving at Queen's Park Station before it's even scheduled.

Can you make it wait long enough for me to run out and get the popcorn?

All your speculations, that don't contradict any laws of physics, but aren't based on facts.

 

[JSF-1]

They just don't want to build the new section with old signal system and then re-do together with the whole line, but technically they can do exactly that if they decide they can't afford the new signals.

I would prefer we don't make the same silly mistake New York did when they extended the Q up 2nd Avenue.