Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

For some odd reason, I believe the professionals who've published many studies that reference the poll.

For some odd reason, I believe that authors of a research study ought to disclose their methodology, rather than expect the riders to rely solely on the authors' reputation.

Leger, btw, publish the methodology for their 2011 poll which didn't show as much support for the LRT as the 2014 one. Both polls were part of the same running series.

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http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/future_of_transit_in_toronto_report_ii_eng.pdf

The 2011 survey looks more informative, and I have no issues with its methodology.

More on the 2011 survey:

1) It is about subways vs LRT in general, not specifically about the Kennedy - STC corridor. Thus, results of the 2011 survey don't prove or disprove the 2014 one.

2) The results of 2011 survey look intuitively correct, and indicate that the public is open to both modes: subways or LRT.

3) My favorite statement from that survey is: "82% agree that Toronto should have a mix of subways, light rail, streetcars and buses, depending on the number of people living in the neighborhoods". I pretty much subscribe to this statement.

 

[Rainforest]

Travelling 30+ km using local services (rather than some type of express service) is unusual.

What they're asking for is subway. What they really want is much more frequent GO service and integration (transfers from bus services; yes, they want transfers).

Conceptually, that's correct.

In practice, GO / RER isn't up to the task of supporting intra-416 travel today. Meanwhile, SRT is at its last leg, and needs to be replaced anyway.

So, we can either replace it with the subway and make a large portion of Toronto transit riders happy. Or, we can spend 70% or 80% of the subway costs to revert to the light rail plan, and leave those riders resentful and unwilling to support transit investments elsewhere in the city.

 

[steveintoronto]

For some odd reason, I believe that authors of a research study ought to disclose their methodology,

They did. That's what's posted, and the 2014 one used the same methodology. You then went on to discuss it.

3) My favorite statement from that survey is: "82% agree that Toronto should have a mix of subways, light rail, streetcars and buses, depending on the number of people living in the neighborhoods". I pretty much subscribe to this statement.

The numbers don't even come close to justifying the SSE.

In practice, GO / RER isn't up to the task of supporting intra-416 travel today.

Perhaps that's because RER doesn't exist yet? Exactly zero astronauts have died on their way to Jupiter. Btw: There is no "Practice (sic)."

 

[Rainforest]

They did. That's what's posted, and the 2014 one used the same methodology. You then went on to discuss it.

Noone seems to be able to find the exact question asked in 2014, and that exact formulation matters.

The numbers don't even come close to justifying the SSE.

That's one of the busiest corridors in the city outside downtown.

 

[micheal_can]

Conceptually, that's correct.

In practice, GO / RER isn't up to the task of supporting intra-416 travel today. Meanwhile, SRT is at its last leg, and needs to be replaced anyway.

So, we can either replace it with the subway and make a large portion of Toronto transit riders happy. Or, we can spend 70% or 80% of the subway costs to revert to the light rail plan, and leave those riders resentful and unwilling to support transit investments elsewhere in the city.

Or, get new cars and refurbish the line. Maybe even extend it too....

 

[steveintoronto]

That's one of the busiest corridors in the city outside downtown.

I see. So you should be all for an audit to prove that then. Where's reference to your claim?

 

[Rainforest]

I see. So you should be all for an audit to prove that then. Where's reference to your claim?

Current peak ridership of SRT: 4,500 pphpd; and TTC has to run parallel express bus because SRT cannot handle all peak demand.

Forecast subway ridership for one-stop plan: 7,000 pphpd (in the SSE docs).

Forecast subway ridership for the 2013 three-stops plan: 14,000 pphpd (in the SSE docs as well). Honestly I think the latter number may be overestimated, but even if the real number is 10,000 or 11,000, that shows the potential of the corridor.

 

[Rainforest]

Or, get new cars and refurbish the line. Maybe even extend it too....

Refurbishing isn't cheap, either. Large new Mark cars will require a significant rebuild of the Ellesmere-Midland curve.

 

[micheal_can]

Refurbishing isn't cheap, either. Large new Mark cars will require a significant rebuild of the Ellesmere-Midland curve.

You could have new small cars to take into account the curve.

 

[Rainforest]

You could have new small cars to take into account the curve.

Yes, but a) custom-made small cars will cost more to purchase, b) small cars will limit the capacity.

 

[Rainforest]

Yes, but a) custom-made small cars will cost more to purchase, b) small cars will limit the capacity.

And c) the city will have re-hash the same subway vs LRT (vs some new technology?) debate 25 or 30 years from now, when the new SRT cars become old again.

Hence, my preference is to build the subway and be done with it. The funding is aligned right this time.

 

[steveintoronto]

Current peak ridership of SRT: 4,500 pphpd; and TTC has to run parallel express bus because SRT cannot handle all peak demand.

Forecast subway ridership for one-stop plan: 7,000 pphpd (in the SSE docs).

Forecast subway ridership for the 2013 three-stops plan: 14,000 pphpd (in the SSE docs as well). Honestly I think the latter number may be an overestimate, but even if the real number is 10,000 or 11,000, that shows the potential of the corridor.

That's a fraction of the Sheppard Line even at about 50,000 per day.

 

[Rainforest]

That's a fraction of the Sheppard Line even at about 50,000 per day.

? pphpd means per hour, per direction

Sheppard subway is about 5,500 pphpd, certainly less than the forecast for SSE (even in the 1-stop configuration of the latter).

 

[steveintoronto]

? pphpd means per hour, per direction

Sheppard subway is about 5,500 pphpd, certainly less than the forecast for SSE (even in the 1-stop configuration of the latter).

 

[rbt]

So, we can either replace it with the subway and make a large portion of Toronto transit riders happy. Or, we can spend 70% or 80% of the subway costs to revert to the light rail plan, and leave those riders resentful and unwilling to support transit investments elsewhere in the city.

You missed the other option. We can plan for a subway, including discussions of various restructurings to make it possible (like McGuinty's promise to upload the subway capital to the province for accounting purposes) AND continue to abuse the SRT as is until some structural engineer orders it closed to be replaced by buses via a cobbled together BRT.

In short, after 12 years of the subway option being on the table, through 3 mayors and 3 premiers, nobody has actually stepped forward with full funding. We're already 3 years past the original deadline; every politician at the table is clearly asking themselves if they can delay spending outside of their current term and the answer thus far has been yes they can.

I do hope that changes and Line 2 gets uploaded to the province, new signalling system, new rolling stock, and the extension. I'm certainly not banking my personal livelihood on it coming through anytime soon though.