amnesiajune
Senior Member
Calm down, Reddit Hivemind. The PCs had a huge lead at this point in the 2014 election cycle too, and look how well that worked out.
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Calm down, Reddit Hivemind. The PCs had a huge lead at this point in the 2014 election cycle too, and look how well that worked out.
Cobra
Senior Member
With the poll stating that Conservatives and Liberals are dead even in Toronto, Wynne might have to overdo it on the transit file to secure Toronto as transit is the #1 issue in the city and other urban centers. I predict a new package deal on transit to get reelected as despite all the projects going on right now, she would be beaten if she doesn't announce more. Like the Feds, she will target urban votes and with the Federal Government Infrastructure Program covering 50% of capital costs of the following: Public Transit projects, Social housing & Green Infrastructure, she will have more cash to cover more *new* projects as it's in Ottawa's interest to keep Wynne in power.
Assuming the ship has sailed for projects already under construction, this list of projects that are planned but unfunded will get that subsidy from the Federal Government. Some of those projects are part of the Big move project from Metrolinx and having this Federal subsidy will free more funds to be reinvested in new projects. In fact, most (if not all) of the LRT projects are paid 100% by Queen's Park and with the Federal Liberals needing to keep Wynne put, it gives both parties the opportunity to help each other which includes accepting the LRT projects under the Big move to be funded as well by Ottawa as they are shovel ready. I saw the skepticism on the thread but the Infrastructure program IS HAPPENING. The Infrastructure bank is being set up and Ottawa's already planning to fund up to $189B of new infrastructure. Ottawa needs to spend it to stimulate the economy and secure the next cycle of urban votes while the province needs more money to fund more new infrastructure in the vote rich urban areas.
Expect the Federal Liberals to help her sell this new wave of project based on their program as the question of "how will you pay for all of this" will come up. She can't/won't campaign on raising taxes and implementing new revenue tools (most likely if she wins), she will need to use that program as a crutch to make her numbers stick and not be required to go even more further into debt. At this point, copying what the Feds did is her only way out which if we recall, got them elected over the other parties promising to balance the budget and cut. This might work on rural/suburb areas but cities massively rejected that...even Calgary! Her only hope are Ontario's Urban areas votes. If going in further debt to undertake massive infrastructure investments to stimulate the economy gives her a chance to win, she will go all in and hope cities will do the same and hammer that the PC will stop everything.
The $189B Infrastructure Fund is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Now's the time to take full advantage of it even if it means to go into debt while the interest rates are very low. A PC Government would be a disaster as if they cut back on spending,, they would be ineligible to have access to those funds.
Potential Package deal for reelection (New unfunded projects)
Toronto
O-Train LRT Phase II: Ottawa
Dundas Street Rapid Transit: Mississauga
Brampton LRT: Yep, they will be getting it back
Ion Phase II: Tri-City Area
HSR Ontario Ottawa-Kingston-GTA-London-Windsor: This is a huge way to capture the vote along the corridor. I expect both the Province and Federal Government to partner on this which will help Wynne.
Hamilton: Some or the remaining lines of the BLAST Network with the T line being on top after the A & B Line
Assuming the ship has sailed for projects already under construction, this list of projects that are planned but unfunded will get that subsidy from the Federal Government. Some of those projects are part of the Big move project from Metrolinx and having this Federal subsidy will free more funds to be reinvested in new projects. In fact, most (if not all) of the LRT projects are paid 100% by Queen's Park and with the Federal Liberals needing to keep Wynne put, it gives both parties the opportunity to help each other which includes accepting the LRT projects under the Big move to be funded as well by Ottawa as they are shovel ready. I saw the skepticism on the thread but the Infrastructure program IS HAPPENING. The Infrastructure bank is being set up and Ottawa's already planning to fund up to $189B of new infrastructure. Ottawa needs to spend it to stimulate the economy and secure the next cycle of urban votes while the province needs more money to fund more new infrastructure in the vote rich urban areas.
Expect the Federal Liberals to help her sell this new wave of project based on their program as the question of "how will you pay for all of this" will come up. She can't/won't campaign on raising taxes and implementing new revenue tools (most likely if she wins), she will need to use that program as a crutch to make her numbers stick and not be required to go even more further into debt. At this point, copying what the Feds did is her only way out which if we recall, got them elected over the other parties promising to balance the budget and cut. This might work on rural/suburb areas but cities massively rejected that...even Calgary! Her only hope are Ontario's Urban areas votes. If going in further debt to undertake massive infrastructure investments to stimulate the economy gives her a chance to win, she will go all in and hope cities will do the same and hammer that the PC will stop everything.
The $189B Infrastructure Fund is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Now's the time to take full advantage of it even if it means to go into debt while the interest rates are very low. A PC Government would be a disaster as if they cut back on spending,, they would be ineligible to have access to those funds.
Potential Package deal for reelection (New unfunded projects)
Toronto
- Relief Line Long: Downtown Toronto & North York
- Waterfront LRT (Including the Reset): Downtown Toronto & Etobicoke
- Crosstown West: Etobicoke
- Bloor-Danforth Subway Extension (including Crosstown East): Scarborough (1 more station: Sheppard): The current price tag doesn't take into account the Federal Infrastructure program. Once shovel ready, Queen's Park will submit it and get the Feds to pay half. With the extra funds saved by the province, pushing the extension to Sheppard-McCowan is a very real possibility. After the tolls backstabbing job, they owe Tory and he's in need of rescuing in this file. The ridership drastically dropped when Sheppard got cut. Adding Sheppard would bring the ridership up and get more support.
- Sheppard West: North York
- Sheppard East: Scarborough: The LRT being cancelled is a no brainer. It's under the old deal where the Feds contributes only $333M. Cancelling it and resubmitting it as it's shovel ready would boost the funding to half the cost. The Liberals being starved for votes will make it a subway to meet Line 2 at McCowan instead of STC
O-Train LRT Phase II: Ottawa
Dundas Street Rapid Transit: Mississauga
Brampton LRT: Yep, they will be getting it back
Ion Phase II: Tri-City Area
HSR Ontario Ottawa-Kingston-GTA-London-Windsor: This is a huge way to capture the vote along the corridor. I expect both the Province and Federal Government to partner on this which will help Wynne.
Hamilton: Some or the remaining lines of the BLAST Network with the T line being on top after the A & B Line
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OneCity
Senior Member
The Liberals will do anything and everything, at any cost to retain power. Unfortunately for us they are the only party that is even somewhat committed to investing in infrastructure to this point. A few expensive promises and some scare tactics to get the teachers and public sectors workers to continue to fear the Conservative cuts (as Hudak did that for them last election) and Im not sure its the runaway people think.
Hydro is a big black eye for the Liberals right now, but ive never seen a Liberal party enter an election without ugly open wounds in recent years. While taxes are always big, infrastructure investment is huge right now so I would think the only way Brown wins is to commit to turn the Conservative party on its head and commit to investing. Im not expecting any major investment but Im pretty sure he is prepared to move in this direction as the usual bitching and moaning about scandals and taxes doesn't resonate when compared to the alternative of job cuts and lack of investment.
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rbt
Senior Member
Hydro seems to be fixable (as far as the next election is concerned). The bulk of the bill is for payments on capital investments and currently those payments are on a time-scale well below 30 years.
So, obvious solution (which worked for Miller), is to drag out all payments for 30 years and chop the bills by 20%. Of course, in the 2030's we'll be making payments on both very old debt and newer debt but that'll be a problem for whomever is in charge then.
nfitz
Superstar
Why not, the problem today is that the decisions 40-50 years ago didn't address life cycle costs of nuclear once they reached the rehabilitation stage.
Cobra
Senior Member
Unless the PC and Brown outspend Wynne on Infrastructure, I don't see how he's going to win. I could see him not cancelling anything funded, but good luck telling urban areas that they won't get their unfunded projects because we need to balance the books and cut the gravy train.
OneCity
Senior Member
In all likelihood Brown will be taking the Ford plan and advice of DRL, SSE, and Sheppard subways. Whether or not he'll be sincere about funding the unfunded lines with 25% of the cost remains unknown, but I expect they will. The Conservatives are fully aware of the support in Toronto for this line-up of projects and they also know they have a decent window to get back in this election.
On top of their "Responsible Government" spiel, this infrastructure promise will likely be their sugar to attempt to sway the undecided Toronto Voter that normally chooses Left in fear of nothing being done and for those that don't think they need the votes. They do. For those that think all our projects are getting cancelled again, Im telling you this is a unique time and that's highly unlikely to happen
I would still expect the Liberals to double down further if they want power and as of right now I don't see Tory losing the next election to Ford. But a more investment leaning Conservative platform would be a huge turn of events and provide some promise for the future.
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OneCity
Senior Member
http://www.cp24.com/news/neethan-shan-wins-ward-42-byelection-in-scarborough-1.3283980
When an "NDP" Politician from an area not receiving a transit stop (so far) under current plans says there should be no further discussion and to start building, I think the ones continuing to make noise need to reflect a bit. If this doesn't tell them they are wasting everyone time, nothing will.
In any event as the man says its time to shut up and get shovels in the ground.
When an "NDP" Politician from an area not receiving a transit stop (so far) under current plans says there should be no further discussion and to start building, I think the ones continuing to make noise need to reflect a bit. If this doesn't tell them they are wasting everyone time, nothing will.
In any event as the man says its time to shut up and get shovels in the ground.
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Palma
Senior Member
Cut back on daycare (I meant kindergarten) to star at 4 years of age instead of 3. Of course PC cant reveal that till after they get elected
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
He doesn't necessarily need urban GTA areas to win.
OneCity
Senior Member
Maybe. But I would argue ignoring the urban areas is not a good strategy for a party that keep getting its ass kicked amongst extensive scandal in the opposition. This will be a slightly different Conservative platform IMO
Cobra
Senior Member
It's so bizarre to have Progressive-Conservatives being today so anti-infrastructure spending. Historically, Progressive-Conservatives tends to spend on such endeavors, however, the Federal Conservatives (who gutted out the word "Progressive") have been setting the tone and in Ontario, Harris.
Usually, PC would gut expensive social programs before attacking infrastructure spending. I don't know, it's hard to envision the PC under Brown running on cutting on public transit projects when there are so many other stuff they can cut from the Liberal era such as the green policies. Smartest thing to do is to get everything shovel ready and submit them under the Federal Infrastructure programs. That will put pressure on the PC to approve them. Saying no to transit in the GTA is a sure way to defeat. As always, the NDP is clueless...
Usually, PC would gut expensive social programs before attacking infrastructure spending. I don't know, it's hard to envision the PC under Brown running on cutting on public transit projects when there are so many other stuff they can cut from the Liberal era such as the green policies. Smartest thing to do is to get everything shovel ready and submit them under the Federal Infrastructure programs. That will put pressure on the PC to approve them. Saying no to transit in the GTA is a sure way to defeat. As always, the NDP is clueless...
OneCity
Senior Member
This is exactly what I believe the PC platform will be as well. There is minimal appetite for Mike Harris type Politics even outside Toronto, should be interesting to see what the Liberals promise in terms of infrastructure if this is the case.
TOareaFan
Superstar
QP also spent $1.3B on the GTS project and netted virtually no meaningful GO service out of it......not sure the value of a GO/ML v TTC battle over who can do things better....no matter who is planning/delivering these things it will never be enough (or fast enough) to satisfy folks.
robmausser
Senior Member
Because of the GTS we will be seeing all-day 2-way service between Union and Mount Pleasant by the end of the year. The issue is a shortage of engineers, trains, and scheduling. But it wouldn't have happened without GTS.
As well as increases on the Barrie Line and Milton Line, and forthcoming Barrie all-day service, which all require the use of the GTS to get to union.
Not to mention the UPX, as well as grade separation that was required for electrification, GO RER, Smarttrack.
Just because a project doesn't yield immediate results doesn't mean it was not worthwhile or needed.
None of the aforementioned can happen without the GTS work that took place.
I could imagine your actually justified anger if Metrolinx came out and said that they couldn't do any of the above because they didn't plan for the Georgetown South corridor to handle all the new projects.