Rainforest
Senior Member
It should be painfully obvious to everyone here that 14,000 pphpd is not going to happen for this extension. As we all know, internal Metrolinx communications make it abundantly clear that their planners don't think this thing will have ridership anywhere near acceptable levels for subway. It wasn't until political tampering that the 14,000 number came up. The 9,000 number is more believable.
On this point, I tend to agree with you. We do not know for sure, but 14,000 is the peak ridership of BD subway somewhere in East York, where it accumulates lots of feeder routes from the east. I would be surprised if just STC plus north-eastern Scarborough can generate so many riders by themselves.
However, 9,000 pphpd is not bad for a subway. I am sure that the existing subway just out of Kipling or Downsview stations carry less than that.
And with 15 min all day two way GO coming, I would not be at all surprised if 2031 ridership dips below 9,000.
15 min all day two way GO coming is a big IF. Everybody talks about it, but nobody has provided the design to prove that it is technically possible, given the downtown space limitations.
Furthermore, a train every 15 min (4 per hour) times 2,000 riders per train, provides a capacity of 8,000 pphpd. Some of that will be consumed by Markham, some by north-western Scarborough (too far for the McCowan subway), and some by southern Scarborough (south of Eglinton and irrelevant for the McCowan subway). Some will be consumed by the increased transit modal share (people who previously did not use transit at all), and some by new residents. As a result, the GO line may slice no more than 1,000 - 1,500 pphpd from the McCowan subway's ridership.
It should also be obvious to everyone here that this project will not be within the $3.05 Billion budget. Metrolinx is warning of cost overruns of 50%.
As preliminary work has continued on this line we've already seen the cost spike significantly.
Anyways when the EA is completed we'll begin to see the extent of the overruns. It's then that I'm expecting Council to swiftly kill the extension.
If the spike is really dramatic, they might kill the project. But if the spike is moderate, they are more likely to shorten the subway to STC (which will require adjustments to the Sheppard LRT routing).