datamouse
Active Member
Correct, although after an election it's all open even if it's less than a year.
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denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
Member Bio
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2008
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- 7,452
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- Downtown Toronto, Ontario
Because of the political disruption.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Because thankfully, the case for BD to STC is far stronger.
AoD
AoD
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
Because the LRT plan is no longer supported by the provincial government. Heck, the Liberals campaigned on the Bloor-Danforth subway extension in this spring's election saying they still plan on making sure the subway is built. It would be foolish for the Liberals to just agree to a return of the LRT at this point. The MPPs (especially the Scarborough MPPs who are all Liberal) know there has been too much flip flopping on the Scarborough transit file. City Council voted in favour of the subway plan. The provincial government has put forward the $1.4 billion for it and the federal government has put forward over $600 million. The subway is coming whether we like it or not and mayoral candidates like Olivia Chow are incredibly foolish to think the LRT plan can magically come back. Karen Stintz is right when she says Metrolinx should say the LRT plan is dead and the subway plan has the green light.
Forget the LRT, bring on the subway and let's move on to other projects like the DRL. Case closed.
howl
Active Member
From a landuse planning point of view the main difference between LRT and subway is that LRT tends to spread new development out over a larger area while a subway will concentrate the same number of people in a few high-density locations. With the subway going to the STC I suspect there will be a lot more very tall condo's and office buildings replacing all that asphalt. The mall itself might even be replaced by a more urban "lifestyle" centre that replicated a real urban community. With the subway there is the opportunity to create a whole new city centre. That in-itself might be worth staying with the subway.
am29
Active Member
+1
the subway would be huge for STC as a business and urban center. STC has been losing company offices to Markham CC and this subway will be a huge boost to the business sector of Scarborough. Without the amalgamation STC would be just as booming as Markham, Mississauga, Brampton, North York etc. There's a lot of land in Scarborough that can be developed but since the cost of having land in Toronto makes it too expensive for developers based on how much they can profit off it. Hopefully the ECT and the BD extension to STC can really spur the economy in Scarborough back into motion.
aquateam
Active Member
+1
It's pretty ridiculous when people, especially Stinz of all people, say that it's a "done deal" and they need to move on.
So, to them, it wasn't a done deal when:
-the EA for the LRT was complete
-the order for the LRT vehicles was made, with significant cancellation penalties
-$85 million in preliminary design work for the LRT was done
-City council made a stunning 2/3rds majority vote to reaffirm the binding master agreement for LRTs with metrolinx and abandon Rob Ford's subway plan
but somehow a 24-20 vote, tacked on to a number of contradicting and ridiculous resolutions about which transit pet-projects individual councellors "recommend" to metrolinx, overrides all that. The subway doesn't even have an EA done yet.
The master agreement was the only legally binding document, and it requires a 2/3rds majority to reopen. Officially, the city is committed to LRT, and the only official statement otherwise was the following approved motion:
•“That City Council support the extension of the Bloor Danforth Subway Line from Kennedy Station to the Scarborough Town Centre and north to Sheppard Avenue.â€
which is functionally meaningless. At no point in the motion did they ask for the LRT project to be cancelled or recast.
To say that this debate is over because the liberals campaigned on subways is pretty misleading, since it was only Mitzie Hunter who campaigned on it. In contrast, future Mayor Chow has the LRT as a direct plank of her platform. I can't see the liberals going against the will of the new city council, especially since they have a signed contract for LRT.
Solid Snake
Active Member
In the end, it's who writes the cheque. In this case, it's the province and as soon they decided they were switching to Subway, then it became a done deal. The Murray plan is pretty clear that it's
a)Subway to STC via SRT alignment (if possible)
b)Subway to Sheppard Avenue East via McCowan Rd.
aquateam
Active Member
To call anything Murray does as a "plan" is a bit of a stretch. Between the SRT alignment and the London HSR it's pretty clear that he's winging it as he goes along. I agree that at this point it depends on what the province decides to do, though.
What I think is the most likely scenario a couple months from now:
-EA for subway options is completed - finds SRT option technically impossible because of the curve radii. Meanwhile, it up-estimates the cost for the city's preferred alignment by a couple hundred million
-New city council is elected, with Chow as mayor. Faced with a shortfall that the city would have to cover, plus sunk costs, plus an electoral mandate to go back to the LRT proposal, the subway is nixed. Transit levy goes to gravy.
What I think is the most likely scenario a couple months from now:
-EA for subway options is completed - finds SRT option technically impossible because of the curve radii. Meanwhile, it up-estimates the cost for the city's preferred alignment by a couple hundred million
-New city council is elected, with Chow as mayor. Faced with a shortfall that the city would have to cover, plus sunk costs, plus an electoral mandate to go back to the LRT proposal, the subway is nixed. Transit levy goes to gravy.
andrewpmk
Senior Member
I don't think it is likely that Chow will be elected because it is unlikely that the Ford vote will be as high as the polls claim, and that vote will go to Tory. Even if Ford manages to get out of rehab and stay out of jail for the next few months, he will have no campaign to speak of and once people start paying attention to the race in September his support will slide to single digits. I think that Tory will probably have a stronger campaign because he will have an easier time raising money from business types who dislike Chow. My guess is that about 70% of the population hates Chow and 30% likes her, so there has to be vote splitting to get Chow elected. LRT, bike lanes, etc. are unpopular among the majority of the population. All the other candidates will probably drop out of the race. Assuming Tory wins, my guess is we will get Scarborough subway + nothing on Sheppard (Tory is against the Sheppard LRT).
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1overcosc
Active Member
Except the province wants Sheppard East LRT. Keep in mind, the province is in control now. The Liberals have a majority, and they have the massive dedicated fund. Tory won't affect didly squat if Wynne doesn't agree with him. Wynne will probably be receptive to negotiating SmartTrack to fit into the GO RER plan, but she's not going to change course on already approved project. Sheppard East gets LRT, Finch West gets LRT, Scarborough gets subway. Those aren't changing. Wynne is making it very clear that now's the time to build, not flip-flop as Toronto has pointlessly done for decades.
ehlow
Senior Member
. Please let the next 4 years be full of transit building.datamouse
Active Member
That's untrue. Council made a clear motion to amend the MA to remove the LRT and replace it with a subway as well as to fund it. The MA is currently being negotiated to deal with issues such as sunk costs.
It was also much more than just Mitze Hunter touting the subway. During the by-elections he had the full backing of the Liberal Party and the subway was a well known part of the party platform in last week's election.
dunkalunk
Senior Member
I honestly think this is the most sensible option in both the short and long term. Once the UPX is electrified, the vehicles that were used for the UPX could then be shifted to service on the Stouffville Line to Agincourt while the SRT is shut down.
The line could then be converted to electric and the SRT guideway to STC retrofitted to allow the running of the same electrified EMUs. Finally, the electrified UPX would be extended with the same vehicles to Scarborough (now renamed the Scarborough-Pearson REX).
In the very long term, the Bloor-Danforth alignment would be converted to operate the REX vehicles for a direct transfer to the B-D at Victoria Park Ave and to eliminate the duplication of service caused by running the parallel REX line to the subway.
In the end, replacing the SRT with a REX line is a far better deal than a subway for Scarborough, as it would cost far less, can be delivered quicker, and would be quicker with only be 10 stops into Downtown Toronto compared to 22 with a transfer at Bloor-Yonge.
salsa
Senior Member
Are you kidding me? Chow's latest approval rating is 64%.