I disagree, Council has been quite clear in that it supports a subway given the named stipulations.
You disagree that council has failed to be clear?
Well, I suppose, but given that 24-hours later, the province clearly announced that the city wouldn't get the $1.8 billion, then it's hardly clear at all!
Until the Sept 30 deadline hits any lack of funding from upper levels of government doesn't change Council's position.
There's no deadline in the decision. There's simply a request that the money be provided by that date. I don't think there's anything in the decision stopping the city manager from signing a deal if the money appears after that date. However the way it's phrased, even if the province only ponied up $1.7 billion, and the feds provided $50 trillion it would still have to go back to council. And if within a year, it would require a 2/3 vote to change, as council has already dealt with it.
The demand for $1.8 from the province is legally needed but really it would be beyond dumb to think that everything would fall apart if say the feds provided the extra money. Sure Council would have to pass a new motion but do you really think council would say no to money it doesn't need to provide?
Oh, sure they would. But what are the chances the feds are going to do this? In the city manager's report, if the province provided $1.8 billion, they would still be looking for $378 million from the feds. Presumably then, if the province only provides $1.4 billion, they are looking for $778 million from the feds. At the same time the city is only providing $378 million? (all $ are 2010). The city expects the feds to pay 30% while the city is only paying 15%?
I doubt the feds will deliver anything. I certainly don't expect them to delivery more than the city. I expect the real outcome of this is that the province provides $1.4 billion, and if the city really wants it, they'll have to find the other $1.156 billion themselves. But I doubt they'll ever get the 2/3 vote to approve that.
Politically the Liberals are in real tough spot after the by elections. In Scarborough-Guildwood they didn't just support a subway they made it the central issue of the campaign. Campaigning like that even after saying they'd only provide $1.4b will look terrible if the subway gets scrapped. Liberal support in all Scarborough ridings will plummet unless they can perfectly shift the blame and shifting the blame will be tough if it's over $1.4 vs. $1.8 since like I said they knew this when they campaigned for the by-election.
I doubt that will be a factor. Surely proceeding with cancelling the LRT and then providing a sweet deal for Toronto as well, much, much better than the 1/3 they are providing Ottawa and Waterloo for their new rapid transit will be a much bigger target on the Liberals after the gas plant cancellation.
I think Stintz had backed herself into a corner, and unless there's an unlikely very large pile of cash from the feds, I don't know how she'll get out of it.
I still wouldn't be surprised that if at the end of the day, they simply don't end up spending $300 million or so, for newer SRT vehicles and adjust the Ellesmere-Midland tunnel to cope with them and leave the current stations alone (including Kennedy).
