Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[TheTigerMaster]

Whatever decision we make on the SSE, I’m sure it will be the stupidest plan we can think of. Toronto would have it done no other way

And the one-stop subway plan is bloody moronic and if it gets built future generations will rightfully despise us. We deserve it.

And, no Doug, private developers are not paying for your subwa, you big dummy. But we elected this worthless clown, so what does that say about us? You get the government you deserve...

 

[OneCity]

Whatever decision we make on the SSE, I’m sure it will be the stupidest plan we can think of. Toronto would have it done no other way

And the one-stop subway plan is bloody moronic and if it gets built future generations will rightfully despise us. We deserve it.

And, no Doug, private developers are not paying for your subwa, you big dummy. But we elected this worthless clown, so what does that say about us? You get the government you deserve...

As long as they build it with stops it will be a great decision in the long run. Connected Centre and never has to be debated again decades from now.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

We need to wait for the budget now

 

[OneCity]

We need to wait for the budget now

Should get interesting with not only receiving design clarity here but there is a very strong expectation that the Sheppard subway design is funded.

 

[nfitz]

As long as they build it with stops it will be a great decision in the long run. Connected Centre and never has to be debated again decades from now.

We need to wait for the budget now

Toronto and TTC have already made the design decisions to build this with only one stop, and that process is still moving forward.

Despite Doug Ford's promise that this would be 3 stations, he's done nothing to actually change the current process. When (if!) they make an uploading decisions, this could already tendered for construction.

Other than design details, the real clarity will be the cash flow. The $3.35 billion (listed as $3.560 now in the TTC's 2019-2028 budget - not sure what that extra $210 million comes from) was based on a 2023 opening date. The current budget shows the big spending continuing through 2027, with another $52 million in 2028 and $3 million after 2028. They keep talking about a 2026 opening, but that smells like a 2027 opening to me.

Presumably the project wouldn't cost more than the earlier $3.35 billion, simply on price escalation (using 4% rule of thumb) from 2023 to 2027. That alone could push the price tag to $3.9 billion ... possibly $4.1 billion depending on the source of that other $210 million cost.

If they restore the $1 billion they cut to go from 3 stations to 1 stations, inflate that (adding another $170 milion) you are at $5.3 billion ... though that would still assume a 2027 opening ... with the province getting involved, that would surely add another 3-4 years .... so over $6 billion.

A great man once said that transit delayed is transit denied!

 

[syn]

The SRT is crumbling, we need a replacement:

Want to upgrade it to Mk 3 vehicles? No, okay how about LRT + extension? Oh, don’t like LRT? Okay, how about a three-stop subway extension? Okay, that’s too expensive, how about one-stop plus EELRT plus Smarttrack? Oh, Smarttrack was a scam and EELRT isn’t ever being built? Okay, how about a three-stop extension with the private sector paying? Oh, nobody wants to pay... [to be continued]

This thing is gonna be a legendary study in decision paralysis in the future. This whole thing is so embarrassing, shameful and disgraceful. Massive metro systems have been built in the time it’s taken us to debate this matter.

Idk how Toronto has gotten to be as successful as we are, because we certainly don’t deserve it. Montreal should’ve alphas been Canada’s premier city. You see what they’re doing over there while we run around like a bunch of hapless idiots? Thanks, René Lévesque.

Toronto was a visionary place at one point (and still is in many ways). It's actually not that long ago that the Sheppard and Eglinton Subway lines were under construction - amalgamation, political interference and an ineffective taxation system have robbed Toronto of it's momentum when it comes to public infrastructure.

 

[syn]

Toronto and TTC have already made the design decisions to build this with only one stop, and that process is still moving forward.

Despite Doug Ford's promise that this would be 3 stations, he's done nothing to actually change the current process. When (if!) they make an uploading decisions, this could already tendered for construction.

Other than design details, the real clarity will be the cash flow. The $3.35 billion (listed as $3.560 now in the TTC's 2019-2028 budget - not sure what that extra $210 million comes from) was based on a 2023 opening date. The current budget shows the big spending continuing through 2027, with another $52 million in 2028 and $3 million after 2028. They keep talking about a 2026 opening, but that smells like a 2027 opening to me.

Presumably the project wouldn't cost more than the earlier $3.35 billion, simply on price escalation (using 4% rule of thumb) from 2023 to 2027. That alone could push the price tag to $3.9 billion ... possibly $4.1 billion depending on the source of that other $210 million cost.

If they restore the $1 billion they cut to go from 3 stations to 1 stations, inflate that (adding another $170 milion) you are at $5.3 billion ... though that would still assume a 2027 opening ... with the province getting involved, that would surely add another 3-4 years .... so over $6 billion.

A great man once said that transit delayed is transit denied!

It could actually approach $5 billion for just the one stop.

I believe all of these numbers are based on old estimates.

 

[OneCity]

Toronto and TTC have already made the design decisions to build this with only one stop, and that process is still moving forward.

Despite Doug Ford's promise that this would be 3 stations, he's done nothing to actually change the current process. When (if!) they make an uploading decisions, this could already tendered for construction.

Other than design details, the real clarity will be the cash flow. The $3.35 billion (listed as $3.560 now in the TTC's 2019-2028 budget - not sure what that extra $210 million comes from) was based on a 2023 opening date. The current budget shows the big spending continuing through 2027, with another $52 million in 2028 and $3 million after 2028. They keep talking about a 2026 opening, but that smells like a 2027 opening to me.

Presumably the project wouldn't cost more than the earlier $3.35 billion, simply on price escalation (using 4% rule of thumb) from 2023 to 2027. That alone could push the price tag to $3.9 billion ... possibly $4.1 billion depending on the source of that other $210 million cost.

If they restore the $1 billion they cut to go from 3 stations to 1 stations, inflate that (adding another $170 milion) you are at $5.3 billion ... though that would still assume a 2027 opening ... with the province getting involved, that would surely add another 3-4 years .... so over $6 billion.

A great man once said that transit delayed is transit denied!

I fully expect Ford is about to explode heads of those that want him to fail on subway expansion. Unlike the ability to overrule Rob at the City level no one has power to stop this Provincial admin from moving forward with subways should they choose. And they will. The Citys inability to fund or agree on transit plans will no longer be an issue shortly. Capital upload is happening, design funding will continue and financing is going to be available.

Also never thought id see the day, but interesting to see you have finally realized we are not building LRT here as you applied similar logic for years the LRT would be built as it was still under contract. Both the Provincial Liberals and Conservative want Sheppard as a subway and are heavily supported locally. Its coming as well and the City and TTC wont stop it so long as the DRL moves forward

 

[syn]

In Fords 1st 4 months, he got agreement on the connected Eglinton-Scarborough LRT - the best transit plan we have seen in 30+ years. (Yes, better than the DRL to Pape). In less than a year after that, Council took the transit file away from Ford and proudly wears the debacle we are in (along with the Provincial Liberals who quietly pulled the strings).

You mean the plan that doubled the cost (based on a very conservative estimate) and used up all available transit funding?

Ford didn't propose a transit plan, he proposed a 'let's get this out of the way of cars' plan. That's exactly why it failed.

Ford's unwillingness to work with anyone, along with his addictions and criminal behaviour, are why council was forced to take control.

It's kind of amazing that you're virtually never willing to Ford accountable for anything.

 

[OneCity]

You mean the plan that doubled the cost (based on a very conservative estimate) and used up all available transit funding?

Ford didn't propose a transit plan, he proposed a 'let's get this out of the way of cars' plan. That's exactly why it failed.

Ford's unwillingness to work with anyone, along with his addictions and criminal behaviour, are why council was forced to take control.

It's kind of amazing that you're virtually never willing to Ford accountable for anything.

This happens far too often here.

@BurlOak was talking directly about the transit plan Ford supported and I fully agree it was far superior to Millers. Its completely fine you disagree here but then you go on to make make accusations and take things completely outside of the transit plan being discussed

I dont like many things the Fords have done personally and politically but there are many things I do like politically as do many others do in this Province and we shouldn't have to defend his personal life or associated with any other associated political smears when debating single issues. Its not helpful

Maybe David Miller is some perfect human but his transit plan politics were really bad in my view and have led to an unfortunate aftermath. Again you can disagree. But Im also sure well never see accountability here as some like to claim the LRT scheme was falsely touted as "evidence-based" at the time many on council were working against Ford.

Within Scarborough the local/Provincial NDP support the subway, basically all local/ Provincial Liberals, and all local/Provincial Conservatives. Doing better on transit in Scarborough isnt even a Ford specific item. The overwhelming political support from the other parties even with a Ford in power speaks for itself.

If anything Rob showed he could compromise with the Province based on an expert report for this specific line by connecting it better. Again you dont have to like the plan or the extra costs but I feel there is a cost to doing things right. The political fight that was taken up is far more important to the people who actually live here than anyones flawed personal life and shouldnt have to be debated because you dont agree with a specific issue

 

[nfitz]

I fully expect Ford is about to explode the usual heads of those that want him to fail on subway expansion. Unlike the ability to overrule Rob at the City level no one has power to stop this Provincial admin from moving forward with subways should they choose. And they will.

I hope you are right, because I've been in favour of the province uploading the capital infrastructure of the subway ever since it was proposed by Katherine Wynne's government. The upcoming amounts just for maintenance are massive and hard to achieve with the city's limited financing capabilities.

And while I do want Doug Ford to succeed on this, my fear is that he is too ignorant to actually understand the numbers on this, and just how much it is going to cost the provincial treasury. I suppose it might proceed if the Ministry staff (who are quite clearly the architects of this) manage to keep the numbers away from their political masters. However the transparency of the process that the city has put in place, makes it unlikely that even a grossly incompetent fool would like Doug Ford would not figure the implications.

However, I do have a habit of overestimating people - with any luck, Doug Ford is even stupider than I give him credit for and does upload the subway! Though even then I don't think it will get the line opened on schedule in 2026 or 2027 ...

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Toronto and TTC have already made the design decisions to build this with only one stop, and that process is still moving forward.

Despite Doug Ford's promise that this would be 3 stations, he's done nothing to actually change the current process. When (if!) they make an uploading decisions, this could already tendered for construction.

Other than design details, the real clarity will be the cash flow. The $3.35 billion (listed as $3.560 now in the TTC's 2019-2028 budget - not sure what that extra $210 million comes from) was based on a 2023 opening date. The current budget shows the big spending continuing through 2027, with another $52 million in 2028 and $3 million after 2028. They keep talking about a 2026 opening, but that smells like a 2027 opening to me.

Presumably the project wouldn't cost more than the earlier $3.35 billion, simply on price escalation (using 4% rule of thumb) from 2023 to 2027. That alone could push the price tag to $3.9 billion ... possibly $4.1 billion depending on the source of that other $210 million cost.

If they restore the $1 billion they cut to go from 3 stations to 1 stations, inflate that (adding another $170 milion) you are at $5.3 billion ... though that would still assume a 2027 opening ... with the province getting involved, that would surely add another 3-4 years .... so over $6 billion.

A great man once said that transit delayed is transit denied!

If Doug is a one term premier that is no longer his problem. Right now the contract hasn't been tendered, so let's wait for the budget right?

 

[lenaitch]

I dont like many things the Fords have done personally and politically but there are many things I do like politically as do many others do in this Province and we shouldn't have to defend his personal life or associated with any other associated political smears when debating single issues. Its not helpful

Part of the Praetorian Guard?

 

[robmausser]

David Miller wasn't dropped from outer space.
He knew that SRT was Mark I since 1985.
Sheppard was known to be a subway in 2002, a year before Miller was elected, and 5 years before he came up with Transit City.
The fact is he knew what these were, and still planned the wrong things. His plan had to consider the existing conditions - it's not that they were being done in parallel and somehow he was shut out from the loop.
As I said before, if he just tried to do 1 thing right - we would be much better off.
Instead, he tried to do a half dozen things half assed - and then the funding was cut so only 1 is actually started at this time.

Im in no way defending Miller or saying that he is not at fault.

All I am saying is that had the proper plans been done before him, Transit City would have been a much better option and worked a lot better.

He was aware of the past, but you cant change it. You can only work with what you are given in the present.

 

[robmausser]

The outcome of Transit City is positive overall: we are certainly getting the Eglinton line built, and very likely getting Finch West as well. Eglinton light rail is very essential for the midtown, it badly needs an east-west transit line with protection against the traffic congestion. Eglinton buses are just unusable at times.

At the same time, it is fair to say that Transit City plan was a) based on light rail only, ignoring without a good reason any other modes, and b) the cost estimates were seriously low-balled. A better balanced plan that includes some subways, some light rail, and some BRT, supported by better-quality cost estimates, could be executed more smoothly.

Perhaps David Miller and his team thought that by composing their plan of light rail lines only, they will limit the debate about technology choices (any group that wants another mode, could be told that their corridor is getting light rail because all other corridors are getting light rail as well). Didn't work that way.

Anyway, I prefer to commend Miller for what he accomplished, instead of complaining about what he didn't.

This is usually the way things go anyways. You have a very ambitious plan for Transit and then reality kicks in and at the very least something good does come out of it. Its generally never as good as the ideas on paper, but when do ideas ever transpire to reality in a perfect way?