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Baby, we got a bubble!?

TrickyRicky

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For all the talk of foreign money, speculative investment etc. I think it’s really hard to see too much price deflation when money is so free. The government attempted to place an artificial lending barrier and that is working; however, they can and will remove these barriers if prices fall too much. A recession will help do the trick whenever that happens. Interest rate increases will help but they are tied to the other factors. Basically we need to deflate but a long period of stagnation works as well as a sharp correction.

Whatever the final outcome I just can’t get past the idea that no middleclass family should be servicing 500k in debt based on 2019 incomes. 500 k is a mind boggling amount of debt for regular people regardless of the short-term month-to-month carrying costs of that amount today
 

Yoshimura

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Any predictions as to where everyone sees the Toronto real estate market in 5 years?
 

steveintoronto

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Any predictions as to where everyone sees the Toronto real estate market in 5 years?
Lower, but no crash. You wouldn't think it from all then hype, and this includes Oz linked a few posts above, but more markets stabilize over time when overvalued than crash.

It's just that crashes get more attention. Think plane crashes. And yet it's by far the safest way to travel. In Toronto's case, the lack of housing will persist, especially rental, but the control will be tighter financing conditions, and people voting with their feet to buy elsewhere.
 

Eug

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So, how long do we have to wait before we declare it a soft landing?

Prices peaked in July of 2017 with an index of 254.93, and then fell 7.4% to 236.07 in Dec. 2017. Since then in the last year and a half, they've increased at about the rate of inflation.

187034


In any case, in less than 6 months, this thread will be a full decade old! Prices in Toronto have settled at just over double what they were when this thread started.

Nov 2009: Index at 119.21
Apr 2019: Index at 244.56
 

TheKingEast

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Seems like it. 2017 was the peak right around when all of the policies came out (ie: stress test). This is a good thing. Double digit gains year over year is just not sustainable.

Vancouver/BC prices are tanking though.
 

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