Torontovibe
Senior Member
A cautionary tale from Downunder
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
TrickyRicky
Senior Member
For all the talk of foreign money, speculative investment etc. I think it’s really hard to see too much price deflation when money is so free. The government attempted to place an artificial lending barrier and that is working; however, they can and will remove these barriers if prices fall too much. A recession will help do the trick whenever that happens. Interest rate increases will help but they are tied to the other factors. Basically we need to deflate but a long period of stagnation works as well as a sharp correction.
Whatever the final outcome I just can’t get past the idea that no middleclass family should be servicing 500k in debt based on 2019 incomes. 500 k is a mind boggling amount of debt for regular people regardless of the short-term month-to-month carrying costs of that amount today
Whatever the final outcome I just can’t get past the idea that no middleclass family should be servicing 500k in debt based on 2019 incomes. 500 k is a mind boggling amount of debt for regular people regardless of the short-term month-to-month carrying costs of that amount today
Yoshimura
Active Member
Any predictions as to where everyone sees the Toronto real estate market in 5 years?
steveintoronto
Superstar
Lower, but no crash. You wouldn't think it from all then hype, and this includes Oz linked a few posts above, but more markets stabilize over time when overvalued than crash.
It's just that crashes get more attention. Think plane crashes. And yet it's by far the safest way to travel. In Toronto's case, the lack of housing will persist, especially rental, but the control will be tighter financing conditions, and people voting with their feet to buy elsewhere.
Eug
Senior Member
So, how long do we have to wait before we declare it a soft landing?
Prices peaked in July of 2017 with an index of 254.93, and then fell 7.4% to 236.07 in Dec. 2017. Since then in the last year and a half, they've increased at about the rate of inflation.
In any case, in less than 6 months, this thread will be a full decade old! Prices in Toronto have settled at just over double what they were when this thread started.
Nov 2009: Index at 119.21
Apr 2019: Index at 244.56
Prices peaked in July of 2017 with an index of 254.93, and then fell 7.4% to 236.07 in Dec. 2017. Since then in the last year and a half, they've increased at about the rate of inflation.
In any case, in less than 6 months, this thread will be a full decade old! Prices in Toronto have settled at just over double what they were when this thread started.
Nov 2009: Index at 119.21
Apr 2019: Index at 244.56
TheKingEast
Senior Member
Seems like it. 2017 was the peak right around when all of the policies came out (ie: stress test). This is a good thing. Double digit gains year over year is just not sustainable.
Vancouver/BC prices are tanking though.
Vancouver/BC prices are tanking though.
ludetuner
New Member
So, it’s been almost 10 years since this thread was created. Within that time, i personally have bought a condo downtown, lived in it, rented it out (since I moved out of Ontario for work) and have sold the property since.
I’m considering getting back into the Toronto condo market with a 2 bed/2 bath unit that I can potentially rent out. I find that the cost per sq are a bit better with 2 bdrms.
Any further thoughts on the condo market in the GTA? The prices for and DOM for anything in Toronto still seems to be very strong and rental vacant rates are at an all time low. If you were me, would you try and get in the market?
I’m considering getting back into the Toronto condo market with a 2 bed/2 bath unit that I can potentially rent out. I find that the cost per sq are a bit better with 2 bdrms.
Any further thoughts on the condo market in the GTA? The prices for and DOM for anything in Toronto still seems to be very strong and rental vacant rates are at an all time low. If you were me, would you try and get in the market?
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Davis
New Member
As much as I would love to see them come down, my money is on prices continuing to rise over that period of time, especially for condos. Rent is so high right now it makes mortgages seem reasonable. Plus, Toronto's population is increasing faster than any other city in North America so the demand will be there.
B0ris
New Member
What do you think of this? Toronto is on 2nd place in world real estate bubble index, according to UBS.
www.ubs.com
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2019 | UBS Global
Find out the latest property prices and cost of living in global cities.
www.ubs.com
Neutrino
Senior Member
Of course Toronto is overvalued. When a wretched chipboard bungalow in Scarborough is going for a million plus, you know there's a problem.
Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
That is largely the cost of land not the property itself
Admiral Beez
Superstar
More and more condos. Expect more older dilapidated low rise retail to be sold off and developed into mid-rise modern, mass chain, retail. For example, I expect the entire retail strip on the west side of Parliament from above Callaghan Lane to Shuter to be torn out once Regent Park is fully developed. Those residing in the market value units in Regent will want higher end food and other retail, not the shabby places there now. Especially the NW corner of Dundas and Parliament, that area is crying out for re-development.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Also expect more tracks of post-war SFHs to be bought up by developers for condo construction. With east and west already packed, the Greenbelt and expensive 407 blocking northern development and the lake to the south, the only place to grow is upward.
I imagine when I'm a relatively old man, sitting in my backyard will be like viewing the towers from NYC's Central Park.
I imagine when I'm a relatively old man, sitting in my backyard will be like viewing the towers from NYC's Central Park.
Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
There are still many areas of the city like this that can be developed.
I still don't see it as being the long-term answer though. Just delaying the inevitable fight we will have with the Toronto Yellowbelt / "Stable Neighbourhoods".
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Answer to what question? We can't continue with the 1970s-90s scouring of farm and forest land to build SFHs.
Whenever I fly to Germany I note from the plane how much green space there is between towns and cities. Somehow Germany fits over 83 million people into a country with half the area of Saskatchewan but keeps its rural and agricultural areas. They do it through density. That's the answer you seek. Alternatively, we have a huge country that is sparsely populated - we don't all need to live in the Golden Horseshoe.