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407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link

Allandale25 said:
^ Agree with all of the above, Mark. Only slight change is that I'd put the 2022 cost closer to $2.2B since that's what has been published at the moment. I do agree it could go up. The $5.3B is what IBI Group quoted for the full Missing Link/CP included/changes to the York Sub.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Fixed my post.
 
^ Speaking of the $2.2B (noted in the Metrolinx Capital Project Group Board reports), I can't recall if someone posted here a breakdown of what that will cover for the as described by Metrolinx "Kitchener Extension".

A friend watched the video (posted here before) of this presentation given to Waterloo Region Council last year. The presenters verbally said at the beginning of the presentation (according to my friend) the $2.25 billion breaks down as follows: "$1.45 billion for the freight bypass, $500 million for electrification between Bramalea and Kitchener, and $300 million for a new track between Georgetown and Kitchener."
 
Allandale25 said:
^ Speaking of the $2.2B (noted in the Metrolinx Capital Project Group Board reports), I can't recall if someone posted here a breakdown of what that will cover for the as described by Metrolinx "Kitchener Extension".

A friend watched the video (posted here before) of this presentation given to Waterloo Region Council last year. The presenters verbally said at the beginning of the presentation (according to my friend) the $2.25 billion breaks down as follows: "$1.45 billion for the freight bypass, $500 million for electrification between Bramalea and Kitchener, and $300 million for a new track between Georgetown and Kitchener."
Click to expand...
Great tidbit!

Good to know the breakdown of $2.25B.

That makes the economic case even better!

So this is the fully sunk incremental cost of Kitchener all-day 2-way GO service (excluding trainset and operating costs). For the minimum possible Freight Bypass (2 starter tracks) to free-up Brampton.
 
Allandale25 said:
^ Speaking of the $2.2B (noted in the Metrolinx Capital Project Group Board reports), I can't recall if someone posted here a breakdown of what that will cover for the as described by Metrolinx "Kitchener Extension".

A friend watched the video (posted here before) of this presentation given to Waterloo Region Council last year. The presenters verbally said at the beginning of the presentation (according to my friend) the $2.25 billion breaks down as follows: "$1.45 billion for the freight bypass, $500 million for electrification between Bramalea and Kitchener, and $300 million for a new track between Georgetown and Kitchener."
Click to expand...
seems cheap....but I guess it is missing whatever "incentive" CN want to/can extract for agreeing to move.
 
mdrejhon said:
So this is the fully sunk incremental cost of Kitchener all-day 2-way GO service (excluding trainset and operating costs). For the minimum possible Freight Bypass (2 starter tracks) to free-up Brampton.
Click to expand...

I think for the "full sunk costs" for the entire Kitchener Corridor to get "all-day, two-way", it would have to include the cost of the Union-Bramalea stretch ($1.534B accordinging to the Capital Group reports to the Metrolinx Board). Also, if you want include the historical Georgetown South Project (I think it was $1B?) and the work done between Georgetown and Bramalea in the around 2005-2008 (not sure how much that was for, or if CN picked up any of it) as part of GO Transit Rail Improvement Plan (GO TRIP), you could get the total cost since 2005.
 
Allandale25 said:
I think for the "full sunk costs" for the entire Kitchener Corridor to get "all-day, two-way", it would have to include the cost of the Union-Bramalea stretch ($1.534B). Also, if you want include the historical Georgetown South Project (I think it was $1B?) and the work done between Georgetown and Bramalea in the around 2005-2008 (not sure how much that was for, or if CN picked up any of it) as part of GO Transit Rail Improvement Plan (GO TRIP), you could get the total cost since 2005.
Click to expand...
GTS was $1.3B I believe.
 
TOareaFan said:
seems cheap....but I guess it is missing whatever "incentive" CN want to/can extract for agreeing to move.
Click to expand...

Good point. I wonder if they've built that in and buried it in one of the categories? Also, I wonder if some kind of trade is being made. GO gets the Bramalea to Georgetown tracks for a reduced cost and there is some kind of split on the Bypass investment. Saw this recently article in the Globe: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ore-than-doubled-on-tax-gain/article37709456/

Wonder if CN has incorporated any kind of Bypass investment in this: "CN has already said it plans to extend a major hiring spree into this year, and on Tuesday chalked out a record annual capital budget of $3.2-billion, with $800-million to expand its capacity."
 
TOareaFan said:
seems cheap....but I guess it is missing whatever "incentive" CN want to/can extract for agreeing to move.
Click to expand...

The Capital listing that has appeared in the Capital report for the last couple of Board meetings has shown two line items for the Kitchener line - one titled "Kitchener" for $1.534B, with an in-service date of 2025.
The same chart has a second line titled "Kitchener Extension" for $2.250B with an in-service date of 2024.

There is a third item for "Network Infrastructure" for $4.493B which is footnoted as including "Electrification and Signals".

I can well imagine that the full Kitchener line, with the enabling bypass, will account for $3.784B which is the total of the two lines. I wonder if there is double counting for electrification or if (as I suspect) the Kitchener electrification is an additional amount within the $4.493B line item.

There is also this division into Packages 1 to 3 which further obscures the route by route accounting.

Call me a curmudgeon, but ML's explanation of its capital listing is such a hand-faster-than-eye accounting that I just don't trust it, period.

- Paul
 
^It appears in the text writeup in those reports, and in some of the other Board documents. Somewhere there was a separate document outlining the 3-package strategy. Basically, they are accounting for items by category across all routes. That makes it very difficult to get an itemized cost breakdown for any one route.

- Paul
 
The 13.5 billion has been modified and prodded by additional line-items including the federal pitch-ins for certain elements (e.g. the Conservatives offered a partial funding for SmartTrack before Trudeau was elected).

The Kitchener and Bypass are huge separate line-items outside of the existing 13.5 billion announced by the GO RER initiative a few years ago and, if the libs are reelected, is supposedly to begin electrification construction in 2020.

The early 2020s will be a huge construction boom.
 
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