2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[Northern Light]

If anyone has a good argument for shutting down Billy Bishop I would love to hear it.

Lets not go there again.

There's an entire thread here at UT devoted to this very subject. All 340 pages of it.

Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport | ?m | ?s | Ports Toronto | Arup

Matt Elliott has a column in today's Star on the future of the Island Airport.......... https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/07/26/jets-at-billy-bishop-airport-pierre-poilievre-might-be-winging-it-but-toronto-islands-need-to-change.html any TLDR for those who arent subscribed?

urbantoronto.ca

Suffice to say there are plenty of credible arguments for closing it; and many for keeping it; feel free to read through them all.

 

[adma]

Of course Chow's pledge to close Billy Bishop will only be an Achilles' heel for her campaign if one of her opponents makes it an issue. I would think this would be a perfect issue for Anthony Furey to raise but he strikes me as one of these timid "conservatives" who is afraid to take on any issue that may have a tinge of "controversy" to it. They think it is much safer to just sit on the fence. Who else will make this an issue?

Conversely, Furey making it an issue could well toxify the issue.

 

[SashaLemon]

Just leave it be. Don't close it, don't extend it. Is that a controversial opinion?

 

[Northern Light]

Just leave it be. Don't close it, don't extend it. Is that a controversial opinion?

Probably not a viable one.

Its likely a choice between extend and close; but go look at the thread I linked for all the detail on the why and wherefore; lets not clog this thread up w/this topic.

 

[Northern Light]

While I don't think all of the below is fair (some of it is); its existence certainly speaks to Brad's Challenges {seen on my FB feed)

Above this was the following caption:

With this photo to the right:

 

[Rainforest]

No sympathy for Mr. Bradford, but surprised that someone bothered to create a poster against a guy who polls in single digits and seems to be reliably stuck there.

It is going to be Chow vs Saunders, isn't it? Perhaps Matlow, or Hunter, or Bailao can make gains and approach the 2-nd place, but not Bradford.

 

[afransen]

I wonder if some of the folks failing to gain traction will drop out and endorse one of the dark horses in the race. It really is a shame that Doug struck down ranked choice ballots.

 

[christiesplits]

I wonder if some of the folks failing to gain traction will drop out and endorse one of the dark horses in the race. It really is a shame that Doug struck down ranked choice ballots.

With less than a month before the election, I anticipate we'll start to see radio and TV ads for the bigger campaigns. This is where fundraising prowess can make a big difference.

I'm on the fence about whether or not we see candidates drop out, especially since we're past the point where names can be taken off the ballot. When Pantalone was far behind the polls in 2010, he didn't drop out. Likewise for Hall, Nunziata and Jakobek in 2003.

The two exceptions might be Matlow and Bradford, both sitting councillors, who could have something to gain by endorsing the winning candidate. For instance, does Matlow get promised the gig of Deputy Mayor by Chow, and likewise for Bradford if he endorses Bailao? If they endorse the wrong candidate, they could lose their preferred committee roles, such as no longer Bradford chairing the planning committee.

One hypothetical (and pretty out there) scenario is Saunders, sitting in third place, endorsing Bailao, at the behest of Doug Ford. Bailao isn't the ideal mayor for Ford, but it's a much better option than Chow. Saunders could be promised a blum gig at a government agency for stepping aside.

 

[Pacer]

I wonder if some of the folks failing to gain traction will drop out and endorse one of the dark horses in the race. It really is a shame that Doug struck down ranked choice ballots.

As the ballots are already printed, the idea will likely not have that much effect of a running candidate endorsing another. It's actually a reason for most to stay in now.

Your absolutely right about ranked choice, as we'd actually get a consensus candidate as our mayor. First past the post should not be our process anymore.

 

[Admiral Beez]

A Facebook friend was railing about Olivia Chow this morning, because they heard Chow say she would work to close the Island airport. Could this be an Achilles’ heel in her campaign? Or a boost?

Your FB friend’s frustration aside, has June 2023 mayoral candidate Chow made a campaign promise to close the airport? When I Google such I find news from back in 2015 that Chow wanted to limit expansion of the airport for jets. I‘m a big fan of flying from Billy Bishop, but I think the omission of jets is reasonable.

At this point I’m assuming the winner will be Chow. In the latest poll, Chow’s got a ~35% lead over everyone else, nearly as much as the next three candidates Bailao, Saunders and Furey combined. Unless Chow does something dumb she’s got this locked. And with the power of incumbency she’ll be our mayor until she no longer wants it - unless she does a Tory and plucks a youngster from the staff room.

 

[PinkLucy]

Your FB friend’s frustration aide, has 2022 mayoral candidate Chow made a campaign promise to close the airport? When I Google such I find news from back in 2015 that Chow wanted to limit expansion of the airport for jets.

At this point I’m assuming the winner will be Chow. In the latest poll, Chow’s got a ~35% lead over everyone else, nearly as much as the next three candidates combined.

I couldn’t find documentation. It was during a press event down near there. Bailao noted she supported keeping the airport open. Chow said she didn’t. So neither one may have it as a platform but we’re responding to questions.

 

[christiesplits]

My prediction is that the polls remain relatively static and that Chow is mayor on June 26.

People seem really tuned out this by-election, even among people I know who are fairly worldly and follow politics. I'm sure it will be similar on election day. People will be thinking about vacations, getting their kids to summer camp, and enjoying a cold one in the backyard or patio. The voter turnout will be dismal.

 

[adma]

I'm on the fence about whether or not we see candidates drop out, especially since we're past the point where names can be taken off the ballot. When Pantalone was far behind the polls in 2010, he didn't drop out.

But Rocco Rossi and Sarah Thomson did, and their names remained on the ballot. (As did Susan Fish in 1991.)

 

[afransen]

Your FB friend’s frustration aide, has June 2023 mayoral candidate Chow made a campaign promise to close the airport? When I Google such I find news from back in 2015 that Chow wanted to limit expansion of the airport for jets. I‘m a big fan of flying from Billy Bishop, but I think the omission of jets is reasonable.

At this point I’m assuming the winner will be Chow. In the latest poll, Chow’s got a ~35% lead over everyone else, nearly as much as the next three candidates Bailao, Saunders and Furey combined. Unless Chow does something dumb she’s got this locked. And with the power of incumbency she’ll be our mayor until she no longer wants it - unless she does a Tory and plucks a youngster from the staff room.

Seems to be entirely on the basis on name recognition. Her campaign has been very underwhelming.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

My prediction is that the polls remain relatively static and that Chow is mayor on June 26.

People seem really tuned out this by-election, even among people I know who are fairly worldly and follow politics. I'm sure it will be similar on election day. People will be thinking about vacations, getting their kids to summer camp, and enjoying a cold one in the backyard or patio. The voter turnout will be dismal.

As much as I want to see Ana Bailao win this race, I have come to accept that Olivia Chow is going to be the likely winner. What bothers me is if Chow wins this race, it was not based on a singular, popular issue or campaign promise or a series of issues; she will become mayor of one of the biggest cities in North America based on her name and how much she tells everyone she loves her city. Her campaign overall has been nothing special or inspiring. It’s just sort of… there. Good on the NDP for coming together to back one candidate despite the candidate being rather weak.

And while I have accepted that she’ll probably become mayor, my gut feeling tells me she’ll be in office until 2030 but her time as mayor will go from high popularity to problematic to residents begging for a change in leadership. She seems like a very nice woman with a heart of gold and that’s great. Heck, I would vote for her if this was an election on niceness. However, I have a tough time seeing Toronto truly thriving long-term with her in charge. She has only sat in opposition, and she has supported some pretty hard left leaning political solutions to problems and issues. I will be optimistic that Toronto will succeed under Mayor Olivia Chow but I have my doubts. We will see.

I do wish Mitzie Hunter and Brad Bradford had backed Ana Bailao a few weeks ago. One paper, Bailao is the ideal candidate to become the next mayor of Toronto with a great amount of cash fundraised and a good team of advisors and volunteers, yet her campaign hasn’t grown the way they wanted. It’s too bad she didn’t have something to focus on… something that would be popular with voters. Unless something big happens within the next two weeks, I think Ana Bailao will come in second to Olivia Chow.