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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%
  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%
  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%
  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%
  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
There is currently a mayoral debate on CP24 focussing on housing. Joe Cressy is moderating.
 
Just saw a bit at the beginning. Fair sense of camaraderie which was nice for a change instead of the typical loud talking over each other.
 
Matt Elliott did play by play of the Housing Debate on Twitter:


My thoughts: (Based on Matt's play by play)

Far too much snark and too little substance.

Saunders seems clueless; Bradford like he's lighting everything on fire, Bailao seems obtuse.

Matlow and Chow came closest to good answers for me; though I would have liked more depth.

One notable:

Every candidate is a home-owner. But Matlow bought his first at 36, 'and the bank is still the majority owner); Chow didn't get her 1st place til her 40s.... Neither is in the proverbial poor house, but this compares to every other candidate
getting their first home at 30 or younger.

That's a real disconnect from today's reality.

**

Edit to add, CBC also had coverage of the debate:

 
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Second. A behind the paywall column by David Parkinson of the Globe and Mail on the link between surging foreign students and high rents:


From the above:

View attachment 479270
Note that the direct issue above is Provincial/Federal; but the importance here is that there is no municipal solution to this.

This might be getting off topic, but I have a question related to international students.

If hypothetically we slashed international college/university admissions in half, would this lead to a huge shortage of service and retail workers? It appears that many of Toronto's restaurant workers, Amazon couriers, security guards, and Uber drivers are also full-time international students.
 
This might be getting off topic, but I have a question related to international students.

If hypothetically we slashed international college/university admissions in half, would this lead to a huge shortage of service and retail workers? It appears that many of Toronto's restaurant workers, Amazon couriers, security guards, and Uber drivers are also full-time international students.

Yes it would, which is exactly what we need!

Wages in these professions are starvation wages, not living wages.

But they will not rise when we sustain them with an endless 'under class' of workers who will take those jobs, and who can be treated as expendable and are, because there's more where they came from....

Its gross.

When Seattle and SF have minimum wages north of $22 per hour CAD and we're under $17 with a comparable real estate market...........you see the clear effect.

Further, its when labour costs rise that employers invest in productivity and innovation. You get automated check outs, cleaning robots, order kiosks, self-serve pop machines and more because labour costs rise and that's as it should be.

The market naturally rebalances over time, as labour demand is reduced through productivity.

Plus, for low income earners, those additional wages are immediately reinvested in the economy, in food, housing, hair cuts, a new winter coat or pair of shoes or replacing that phone with a cracked screen etc. Which is a boon to the economy and to government tax revenues.
 
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Does the mayor have any ability to control this? Seems like it would be out of their reach.

What's this? The number of foreign students admitted to Canada? No, not in a statutory or regulatory way.

What they can do, however, is use the bully pulpit to tell the people of Toronto what the link between the federal and provincial policies that drive this, and the housing crisis and low wage growth is......... and them make clear which MP/MPPs bear responsibility.

That might well change the political calculus of senior levels of government were they to do so.
 
What's this? The number of foreign students admitted to Canada? No, not in a statutory or regulatory way.

What they can do, however, is use the bully pulpit to tell the people of Toronto what the link between the federal and provincial policies that drive this, and the housing crisis and low wage growth is......... and them make clear which MP/MPPs bear responsibility.

That might well change the political calculus of senior levels of government were they to do so.

There is a real fine line here though. This can easily be turned by many people into a race issue, like we see south of the border. Bringing too much light to this topic can burn everyone.
 
There is a real fine line here though. This can easily be turned by many people into a race issue, like we see south of the border. Bringing too much light to this topic can burn everyone.

Sure, but in the most diverse major country in the world; where most of the people affected by low wages and high housing costs are visible minorities, I think there's reasonable space to make the argument, providing its expressed appropriately and with requisite nuance.

1) Its never about where the foreign students come from; its about the sheer volume of foreign students all at once, and the circumstances under which they are coming, which often don't work for them either.

2) Its never about rescinding an offer already made; if a foreign student is here, and wishes to continue their studies here, we made a deal and should abide by it; its about how many permits we issue next year, to people who are not yet here.

3) Its about being honest about the conditions people face when they come here, to them, before they come here (cost of tuition, cost of living, low wages etc.) and letting them make an informed choice about whether to apply. I expect more transparency would cut application numbers significantly.

4) Its about properly funding our colleges and universities and not making them seek out foreigners (actively recruit) solely in order to subsidize their budgets.

5) Its about saying to those same colleges and universities you cannot invite any student onto campus without the reasonable prospect of being able to offer them student housing on/adjacent to campus, should they wish it.

6) Its about disallowing any profit on student housing or meal plans, or education; its one thing to ask foreign students to pay the full cost of their education, its another to ask them to subsidize someone else's.

7) Its about disallowing full-time work by students, while in full-time studies. Its absurd, as it means under-performance and high absence rates from school for which one is paying a proverbial arm and a leg.

8) Finally we need to differentiate student types, broadly, I would put no limit on advanced graduate students coming here. That's a situation that is generally win-win for student and country. I'm less enthused with high levels of under-grads; though I certainly don't wish to unduly cap worthwhile student exchange. But I'm deeply concerned by the issue at Community Colleges which often lack any or any significant student housing, and which frankly don't provide the education quality to justify the sums extracted from foreign students.
 
New Mainstreet poll.

Chow - 35%
Bailao - 16%
Saunders - 12%
Matlow - 10%
Furey - 9%
Bradford - 6%
Hunter - 5%
Brown - 2%


Still an outlier on Bailao, but off 5 since Quito's previous effort.

Mostly consistent except for the distinct rise for Furey and Hunter coming back down again as compared to recent polls.
 
New Mainstreet poll.

Chow - 35%
Bailao - 16%
Saunders - 12%
Matlow - 10%
Furey - 9%
Bradford - 6%
Hunter - 5%
Brown - 2%

While we are still a month until Election Day, I don't think there is any reason to think Olivia Chow isn't going to win this. I'm not happy about a Mayor Olivia Chow... but I've accepted it at this point.
 

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