2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[Northern Light]

It's sad, but voters don't care about detailed policy - they want catchy soundbites that don't challenge the brain.

I know you tend to view things this way; but while there certainly are lots of people who neither can nor will read full platforms, I think a majority of those who actually vote are in fact interested in public policy.

But, wrongly may I suggest, they hope the media right read the platforms for them and provide key highlights and insights.

That the media can't be bothered doing that, by and large, is a shame.

 

[PinkLucy]

I wish I could believe that people are interested, but conversations I hear and questions I am asked when working at the polling stations leads me to believe otherwise. For example, at the last municipal election, I was asked how anyone could be expected to know who to vote for when the ballot doesn’t show parties. There were many more examples.

 

[christiesplits]

A Toronto Star article from a few days ago.

Polls show John Tory would easily win the Toronto election. So why are his protégés struggling?

The candidates aligned most closely with John Tory’s regime are not consistently leading polls in this mayoral byelection.

www.thestar.com

Tory confirmed that he's giving advice to Bradford and Bailao, but says he won't be endorsing a candidate.

I still think it's very possible that Tory endorses a candidate last minute, especially if either Bradford or Bailao are in the single digits, and one of them is sitting second, or neck-and-neck with Chow.

It should be noted that last October Tory endorsed candidates Siri Agrell, Grant Gonzales and Mark Grimes, who all lost. However, in a tight race, the "Tory Bump" could make the difference.

 

[adma]

I think it was foolish to think this was going to be a Chow vs Saunders race (as someone here recently posted). I do not think he has any wide appeal besides a small right wing base. I can certainly see a Chow vs a centre candidate like Bailao. If the majority want to "stop" Chow, they will probably find a 'comfortable' candidate to rally behind, and Bailao, being safe and bland, could be that alternative.

Though one thing to keep in mind that Mainstreet's tended to have its thumb on the Bailao scale relative to other pollsters--in part because they reportedly *are* Bailao's pollster...

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Though one thing to keep in mind that Mainstreet's tended to have its thumb on the Bailao scale relative to other pollsters--in part because they reportedly *are* Bailao's pollster...

Are you applying Mainstreet is just making Ana Bailao look more competitive? That they are faking numbers?

 

[adma]

Are you applying Mainstreet is just making Ana Bailao look more competitive? That they are faking numbers?

Put it this way: out of all the pollsters, Mainstreet has *consistently* shown Bailao conspicuously higher than the rest, which they claim is due to the kind of weighting they do. So, while I wouldn't discount the likelihood that they're "onto something", there's still an element of cum grano salis about this...

 

[Fresco]

Some people claim that polling companies are just as politically biased as news media are

 

[tiffer24]

Olivia Chow continues to hold a commanding lead over the other candidates for Toronto mayor, according to a new poll released on Saturday morning.

Among decided voters surveyed by Liaison Strategies, Chow has 29 per cent of support. She leads in all city boroughs and age demographics. It is consistent with other recent polls by Mainstreet Research and Forum Research that also have Chow as the front-runner in the mayoral race. As a result, her rival candidates have tried to discredit her, especially during this week’s first major debate.

"Trend lines are always more important than any individual snapshot. The story of the election continues to be the steady gains by Olivia Chow week after week,” David Valentin, the principal at Liaison Strategies, said in a news release.

Chow is significantly ahead of Mark Saunders, who came in second with 17 per cent of support, according to the poll. He is followed by Mitzie Hunter, who saw an increase of three percentage points from last week’s poll, garnering 15 per cent support. Meanwhile, Matlow’s numbers continue to decline. Last week, he placed third with 15 per cent of support but has dropped to the fourth spot this week with 11 per cent.

Brad Bradford is fifth with 10 per cent of support, followed by Ana Bailao with eight per cent. It is the stark opposite of Friday’s Mainstreet Research poll, which had Bailao as the runner-up behind Chow.

https://www.cp24.com/news/another-poll-shows-chow-leading-race-for-toronto-mayor-1.6407198

 

[Northern Light]

Olivia Chow continues to hold a commanding lead over the other candidates for Toronto mayor, according to a new poll released on Saturday morning.

Among decided voters surveyed by Liaison Strategies, Chow has 29 per cent of support. She leads in all city boroughs and age demographics. It is consistent with other recent polls by Mainstreet Research and Forum Research that also have Chow as the front-runner in the mayoral race. As a result, her rival candidates have tried to discredit her, especially during this week’s first major debate.

"Trend lines are always more important than any individual snapshot. The story of the election continues to be the steady gains by Olivia Chow week after week,” David Valentin, the principal at Liaison Strategies, said in a news release.

Chow is significantly ahead of Mark Saunders, who came in second with 17 per cent of support, according to the poll. He is followed by Mitzie Hunter, who saw an increase of three percentage points from last week’s poll, garnering 15 per cent support. Meanwhile, Matlow’s numbers continue to decline. Last week, he placed third with 15 per cent of support but has dropped to the fourth spot this week with 11 per cent.

Brad Bradford is fifth with 10 per cent of support, followed by Ana Bailao with eight per cent. It is the stark opposite of Friday’s Mainstreet Research poll, which had Bailao as the runner-up behind Chow.

https://www.cp24.com/news/another-poll-shows-chow-leading-race-for-toronto-mayor-1.6407198

From this poll, the standout discussion points are:

Bailao back down in single digits, so the 21% in the recent Mainstreet poll seems to be the outlier.

Mitzi......in the hunt? (groan, I know, I couldn't help myself) ...15% and 3rd overall. There is definitely a positive trendline around her campaign numbers.

Matlow sliding is not entirely a surprise in as much as the numbers of other candidates are rising and it has to come from somewhere.......he really has very little time to get a positive vibe around his campaign.

Bradford up to 10% seems a bit suspect to me, his campaign really seems to be floundering.

 

[W. K. Lis]

In the 2014 election (Tory, Ford, and Chow), the voter turnout was 54.67%. (45.33% "undecided")

In the 2018 election (Tory, Keesmatt), the voter turnout was 40.9%. (59.1% "undecided")

In the 2022 election (Tory, Penalosa), the voter turnout was 29.17%. (70.83% "undecided")

I'm assuming that this 2023 mayoralty by-election will have a large voter turnout.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Put it this way: out of all the pollsters, Mainstreet has *consistently* shown Bailao conspicuously higher than the rest, which they claim is due to the kind of weighting they do. So, while I wouldn't discount the likelihood that they're "onto something", there's still an element of cum grano salis about this...

Quito Maggi says it all here:

 

[Northern Light]

Quito Maggi says it all here:

View attachment 478804

Quito says a lot of things; some merit greater weighting than others..........

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Quito says a lot of things; some merit greater weighting than others..........

I doubt he would put his reputation on the line. If Mainstreet’s current polling data is incorrect, that will be shown on June 26th if Olivia Chow wins big and Ana Bailao barely makes a dent. He’ll have to admit his company got this really wrong. Or if the data continues to show Bailao has some growing momentum whereas other polling organizations don’t, if Bailao wins this race then Mainstreet will be looked at as the company who got this completely right, much like how they got the 2015 federal election right. They were the only polling company which correctly predicted a Liberal majority.

 

[adma]

I doubt he would put his reputation on the line. If Mainstreet’s current polling data is incorrect, that will be shown on June 26th if Olivia Chow wins big and Ana Bailao barely makes a dent. He’ll have to admit his company got this really wrong. Or if the data continues to show Bailao has some growing momentum whereas other polling organizations don’t, if Bailao wins this race then Mainstreet will be looked at as the company who got this completely right, much like how they got the 2015 federal election right. They were the only polling company which correctly predicted a Liberal majority.

Still, the "legal jeopardy" part is weird.

 

[rdaner]

Don’t know if it has been mentioned yet here but one of the candidates floated an idea to redone all ground level units on main streets to live/work units. Great idea!