2022 Municipal Election: Council Races

[Northern Light]

In a squeaker......Saxe has edged Di Pasquale:

 

[Northern Light]

Horvath claims Hamilton in a squeaker.

* 1 poll still to report, but mathematically, pretty sure she has this.

 

[DSC]

This may provide reasonable grounds to have the election voided and a by-election held.

Given the amount of people in that riding it is fair to say there are going to be alot of angry voters.

Judging by these numbers it is not a fair election.

The municipal elections are run according to Ontario law and, whether it is 'fair' or not, the law says that if a candidate dies BEFORE the election the vote continues without them if there is more than one other candidate.

Is the law fair? I am not sure but if it is to be changed that should not be retroactive.

 

[Northern Light]

A couple of additional observations as I turn in for the night.

Council will now be ~25% visible minority. I believe the most diverse Council ever elected; though only about about 1/2 as diverse as the City as a whole.

Ideally the above, as with sex/gender counts is something we ought not to need to take note of, as Councillors should be elected on their merits; however, it is worth noting where Council's composition has been wildly out of line w/the broader community.

Council will be 40% female. Pretty sure that's also a high-water mark.

 

[DopeyFish]

we all knew tory was going to win... that's what happens when you follow rob ford, people will just vote for stability

but still happy about a lot of the rest. really surprised mark grimes was defeated. this ward is all over the map politically and it's been so, so long since we've had a progressive.

 

[Jonny5]

The municipal elections are run according to Ontario law and, whether it is 'fair' or not, the law says that if a candidate dies BEFORE the election the vote continues without them if there is more than one other candidate.

Is the law fair? I am not sure but if it is to be changed that should not be retroactive.

I would make one note of caution here: you are talking about one article in a long and complex Act which simply describes a procedure to follow for a particular circumstance. It does not preclude the possibility that some other part of the Act, or some other Act entirely, or even the Charter if you want to open a can of worms, could be invoked to legally challenge the validity of the election itself. I have no idea if this is possible, and if it is possible I don't know a challenge could succeed, but the point is this short clause describing a procedure does not all by itself have the legal heft to be an absolute ironclad guarantee this election would be legally valid.

EDIT: That being said, I consider a challenge here unlikely here mostly because of cost and time and also the value of the position is kind of low. On the other hand, if Doug has a buddy in the area who would want to run for the position, maybe he finds a part of the Act that legally allows the result to be nuked.

 

[Richard White]

The municipal elections are run according to Ontario law and, whether it is 'fair' or not, the law says that if a candidate dies BEFORE the election the vote continues without them if there is more than one other candidate.

Is the law fair? I am not sure but if it is to be changed that should not be retroactive.

Either way I can see this going to Superior Court. With such low vote totals for the remaining candidates there would be grounds for voiding the election.

A case can be made that the election is not representative of the wards residents given the circumstances.

 

[adma]

Re the matter of voided ballots in Scarborough North, one can roughly "infer" from the difference btw/mayoral and council tallies.

So, the total number of council votes was 10,403, a little over half of which went to Jamaal Myers.

The total number of mayoral votes 14,892. So if we subtract one from the other, that's 4,489, vs 5,315 for Jamaal Myers.

That's a very crude barometer--but it's also a reminder that only a fraction of the votes is cast in advance; plus, don't discount the likelihood that a lot of Lai voters (even those who shared her Chinese ancestry, and perhaps her right-of-centre politics) did default to Myers as the most viable e-day option remaining.

Elections are a funny thing.

 

[mjl08]

Heartbreaker for Chiara Podovani. She ran a very impressive campaign.

Nice to see Grimes gone.

 

[DSC]

Either way I can see this going to Superior Court. With such low vote totals for the remaining candidates there would be grounds for voiding the election.

A case can be made that the election is not representative of the wards residents given the circumstances.

I disagree, the law is quite clear. It may be 'unfair' though that is clearly a matter of opinion.

 

[mjl08]

@ShonTron: Will you be making poll result maps, similar to what you did in 2018?

The map of University-Rosedale will be interesting. I suspect Saxe won the more affluent areas of the ward, like Rosedale, Yorkdale and The Annex. I'm guessing Di Pasquale's stronger areas were Christie Pits, Harbord Village and Little Italy, where voter turnout was likely lower.

 

[Towered]

Horvath claims Hamilton in a squeaker.

View attachment 434593

* 1 poll still to report, but mathematically, pretty sure she has this.

I'm very surprised it was so close. I assumed Horwath would have a cakewalk since Hamilton was always her support base as NDP leader.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Either way I can see this going to Superior Court. With such low vote totals for the remaining candidates there would be grounds for voiding the election.

A case can be made that the election is not representative of the wards residents given the circumstances.

A vote for Lai would be same as "declining" to vote, "voiding" your vote, or "leaving it blank".

 

[Bayer]

@ShonTron: Will you be making poll result maps, similar to what you did in 2018?

The map of University-Rosedale will be interesting. I suspect Saxe won the more affluent areas of the ward, like Rosedale, Yorkdale and The Annex. I'm guessing Di Pasquale's stronger areas were Christie Pits, Harbord Village and Little Italy, where voter turnout was likely lower.

Happy for Saxe, the only candidate who knocked on my door (twice actually!). I see her as progressive but pragmatic. We shall see. Disappointed in Tory's huge majority and in the minuscule turnout.

 

[PinkLucy]

I'm very surprised it was so close. I assumed Horwath would have a cakewalk since Hamilton was always her support base as NDP leader.

Her opponent is active in the community and known; it was never a cakewalk.