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2022 Municipal Election: Council Races

toaster29 said:
Sad and close night, but Nunziata got 47% of the vote. That's a significant amount, much higher than Asuma Malik, Gord Perks, Saxe, and Crawford. I guess because the alternative was 1 person as opposed to a few, it hurts a little more? But I wouldn't say someone getting 47% of the vote is indicative of not having support of her community. If we are going to talk about people candidates squeaking by, those 4 . Especially Malik, Cressy got over 55% of the vote in 2018, so to lose almost 20%, not great for "progressives" there.
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Though Cressy had name-familiarity incumbent advantage in '18. Plus when all is said and done, with all the condos Spadina-FY isn't *that* much of a natural progressive slam dunk; so the open-ward leakage is to be allowed for...
 
In case anyone was wondering about the biggest winners and those who got the lowest % of the vote (while still winning) in Toronto:

RankCouncillor% of Vote
1Josh Matlow84.65%
2Paul Ainslie76.52%
3Jaye Robinson74.22%
4Paula Fletcher74.02%
5James Pasternak73.53%
6* (tie)Stephen Holyday72.28%
6* (tie)Jennifer McKelvie72.28%
8Shelley Carroll71.79%
9Alejandra Bravo70.72%
10Mike Colle70.31%
11Anthony Perruzza61.30%
12Michael Thompson55.25%
13Brad Bradford54.71%
14Jamaal Myers** 51.09%
15Nick Mantas48.89%
16Chris Moise48.48%
17Frances Nunziata47.61%
18Amber Morley46.44%
19Jon Burnside44.68%
20Lily Cheng41.72%
21Vincent Crisanti41.07%
22Ausma Malik36.55%
23Gord Perks35.48%
24Dianne Saxe35.37%
25Gary Crawford35.07%
 
toaster29 said:
In case anyone was wondering about the biggest winners and those who got the lowest % of the vote (while still winning) in Toronto:

RankCouncillor% of Vote
1Josh Matlow84.65%
2Paul Ainslie76.52%
3Jaye Robinson74.22%
4Paula Fletcher74.02%
5James Pasternak73.53%
6* (tie)Stephen Holyday72.28%
6* (tie)Jennifer McKelvie72.28%
8Shelley Carroll71.79%
9Alejandra Bravo70.72%
10Mike Colle70.31%
11Anthony Perruzza61.30%
12Michael Thompson55.25%
13Brad Bradford54.71%
14Jamaal Myers**51.09%
15Nick Mantas48.89%
16Chris Moise48.48%
17Frances Nunziata47.61%
18Amber Morley46.44%
19Jon Burnside44.68%
20Lily Cheng41.72%
21Vincent Crisanti41.07%
22Ausma Malik36.55%
23Gord Perks35.48%
24Dianne Saxe35.37%
25Gary Crawford35.07%
Click to expand...
Lol people on Politics Twitter will be shocked Matlow is that popular.
 
toaster29 said:
In case anyone was wondering about the biggest winners and those who got the lowest % of the vote (while still winning) in Toronto:

RankCouncillor% of Vote
1Josh Matlow84.65%
2Paul Ainslie76.52%
3Jaye Robinson74.22%
4Paula Fletcher74.02%
5James Pasternak73.53%
6* (tie)Stephen Holyday72.28%
6* (tie)Jennifer McKelvie72.28%
8Shelley Carroll71.79%
9Alejandra Bravo70.72%
10Mike Colle70.31%
11Anthony Perruzza61.30%
12Michael Thompson55.25%
13Brad Bradford54.71%
14Jamaal Myers**51.09%
15Nick Mantas48.89%
16Chris Moise48.48%
17Frances Nunziata47.61%
18Amber Morley46.44%
19Jon Burnside44.68%
20Lily Cheng41.72%
21Vincent Crisanti41.07%
22Ausma Malik36.55%
23Gord Perks35.48%
24Dianne Saxe35.37%
25Gary Crawford35.07%
Click to expand...

Great post, not laying this on you for homework, LOL, but would be interested to see this expressed as percent of eligible voters, as oppose to % who showed up.

Given how the turnout was overally, presumably we'd be looking at some councillors elected with under 15% support. But would even Matlow have a majority?
 
Northern Light said:
Great post, not laying this on you for homework, LOL, but would be interested to see this expressed as percent of eligible voters, as oppose to % who showed up.

Given how the turnout was overally, presumably we'd be looking at some councillors elected with under 15% support. But would even Matlow have a majority?
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100% of the votes in a turnout of less than 50% still isn't a "majority". Doubt any of the wards got that much turnout (I haven't seen ward-by-ward breakdown yet).
 
I'm disappointed that the city didn't at least include Cynthia Lai's total votes and put an asterisk next to them. Will the ballots be counted as "spoiled" or "rejected" when the City Clerk releases the official results?
 
A councillor as terrible as Holyday getting over 72% is downright disturbing.

What's the point in anyone (including me in 2026 ;) ) in running against him with that kind of baked in automaton support?
 
Towered said:
A councillor as terrible as Holyday getting over 72% is downright disturbing.

What's the point in anyone (including me in 2026 ;) ) in running against him with that kind of baked in automaton support?
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But you're no Yanuziello though; you're the exciting, vibrant candidate that many of those old fogies kids went clubbing with back in a day! With a well planned campaign, you're a shoe-in!
 
Northern Light said:
But you're no Yanuziello though; you're the exciting, vibrant candidate that many of those old fogies kids went clubbing with back in a day! With a well planned campaign, you're a shoe-in!
Click to expand...
If nothing else, my campaign could at least make for a fantastic performance art project with an undertone of surrealism! I should get some local social media influencers to follow me around and vlog the whole thing ;)
 
Holyday nearly lost in 2018 against Campbell so I wouldn't say he has a "lifetime lock". Yanuziello got almost exactly the same vote percentage as NDPer Erica Kelly got in 2018 (10%). I have no doubt it would have been close had John Campbell decided to run again, the Carnvale vote probably went to that New Blue candidate, so it would have been a similar race, although with the leftward trend in the City (not saying Campbell was "left" by any means, but much more moderate than Holyday) might have pushed it in the Campbell direction. Anyway, a strong centrist candidate can win in Ward 2, especially as more condos pop up along Dundas West (near Royal York), Humbertown, along the 427 (Eva, East Mall/Gibs), the North-west corner of Six-points redevelopment condos, etc.

Also, the Clerks official declaration of the results has been released on the City website, and there's not even an asterisk beside Jamaal Myers name, no mention of Lai anywhere, no mention of spoiled ballots. This is not transparent.
 
toaster29 said:
Holyday nearly lost in 2018 against Campbell so I wouldn't say he has a "lifetime lock". Yanuziello got almost exactly the same vote percentage as NDPer Erica Kelly got in 2018 (10%). I have no doubt it would have been close had John Campbell decided to run again, the Carnvale vote probably went to that New Blue candidate, so it would have been a similar race, although with the leftward trend in the City (not saying Campbell was "left" by any means, but much more moderate than Holyday) might have pushed it in the Campbell direction. Anyway, a strong centrist candidate can win in Ward 2, especially as more condos pop up along Dundas West (near Royal York), Humbertown, along the 427 (Eva, East Mall/Gibs), the North-west corner of Six-points redevelopment condos, etc.

Also, the Clerks official declaration of the results has been released on the City website, and there's not even an asterisk beside Jamaal Myers name, no mention of Lai anywhere, no mention of spoiled ballots. This is not transparent.
Click to expand...
Don't forget about the possible riding/ward redistribution that could happen. See link.

Currently...
Toronto.jpg


Propose...
20-city-of-toronto.jpg
 
toaster29 said:
Holyday nearly lost in 2018 against Campbell so I wouldn't say he has a "lifetime lock". Yanuziello got almost exactly the same vote percentage as NDPer Erica Kelly got in 2018 (10%). I have no doubt it would have been close had John Campbell decided to run again, the Carnvale vote probably went to that New Blue candidate, so it would have been a similar race, although with the leftward trend in the City (not saying Campbell was "left" by any means, but much more moderate than Holyday) might have pushed it in the Campbell direction. Anyway, a strong centrist candidate can win in Ward 2, especially as more condos pop up along Dundas West (near Royal York), Humbertown, along the 427 (Eva, East Mall/Gibs), the North-west corner of Six-points redevelopment condos, etc.

Also, the Clerks official declaration of the results has been released on the City website, and there's not even an asterisk beside Jamaal Myers name, no mention of Lai anywhere, no mention of spoiled ballots. This is not transparent.
Click to expand...
Of course, it could be said that thanks to Doug Ford (who endorsed neither), Holyday was *forced* into nearly losing against John Campbell. Still, it's true that Holyday could be vulnerable to a centrist--trouble is that on a council level, you can't get much less complacent than Etobicoke Centre as represented by *a* Holyday...
 
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