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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Anyone else hearing wispers of large offensive Northwest of Kherson?

Russia is in major trouble. If your Putin I don't even know what you do at this point, you're on the verge of total collapse.
 
Bjays92 said:
Anyone else hearing wispers of large offensive Northwest of Kherson?

Russia is in major trouble. If your Putin I don't even know what you do at this point, you're on the verge of total collapse.
Click to expand...

Snihurivka appears to be under Ukrainian control (according to some sources), this is ~38km from Kherson. (north east of it)

If this is the case, it would be a major breach of Russian fortifications, and could divide RU forces into two in that area.

Difficult to get corroboration; working on it.
 
Bjays92 said:
Anyone else hearing wispers of large offensive Northwest of Kherson?

Russia is in major trouble. If your Putin I don't even know what you do at this point, you're on the verge of total collapse.
Click to expand...

Northwest Kherson was wrapped out today. They are approaching the city now. See my posts earlier. And yes, they are screwed.

Russians have two options:

1) Flee across the Dnipro river at Nova Kakhovka.

2) Flee south across the Ingulets River.

The first option saves the forces they have and moves into open plains where they can fight the Ukrainians much more effectively. The second option traps them with no resupply on the West bank. They are Russian and Putin has given them idiotic orders not to withdraw. You know what they are going to pick.

They will go south. The Ukrainians will nibble away and the noose will get tighter and tighter. Eventually they will run out of fuel, ammo and food (in that order). And when they do you're either going to see a lot of people die or a lot of people surrender. You're also going to see the largest transfer of weapons, made by an enemy force, in the history of modern warfare.

They could cross the Dnipro at the dam and I'll be wrong. But given their choices this war, I'm not betting on it.....
 
kEiThZ said:
Northwest Kherson was wrapped out today. They are approaching the city now. See my posts earlier. And yes, they are screwed.

Russians have two options:

1) Flee across the Dnipro river at Nova Kakhovka.

2) Flee south across the Ingulets River.

The first option saves the forces they have and moves into open plains where they can fight the Ukrainians much more effectively. The second option traps them with no resupply on the West bank. They are Russian and Putin has given them idiotic orders not to withdraw. You know what they are going to pick.

They will go south. The Ukrainians will nibble away and the noose will get tighter and tighter. Eventually they will run out of fuel, ammo and food (in that order). And when they do you're either going to see a lot of people die or a lot of people surrender. You're also going to see the largest transfer of weapons, made by an enemy force, in the history of modern warfare.

They could cross the Dnipro at the dam and I'll be wrong. But given their choices this war, I'm not betting on it.....
Click to expand...
Not that I'm rooting for Russia, but refusing to withdraw from the west bank of the Dniper is idoitic. Even with all their logitical failures, poor equipment and weak personale, they could be faring much much better if they simply employed sound battlefield tactics.

In fact that seems to be a pattern with expansionist authoritarian/fascist regimes. Were they not micromanaged by the ego of inexperienced indisposible leaders, their successes may have been significantly more. I guess for that we should be thankful.
 
Bjays92 said:
Not that I'm rooting for Russia, but refusing to withdraw from the west bank of the Dniper is idoitic
Click to expand...

It is. But then so was pulling out the bulk of their forces from the East and sending them to the South to get trapped. They didn't even pulling out when they saw the Ukrainians popping bridges. They moved even more to the right bank.

Bjays92 said:
In fact that seems to be a pattern with expansionist authoritarian/fascist regimes. Were they not micromanaged by the ego of inexperienced indisposible leaders, their successes may have been significantly more. I guess for that we should be thankful.
Click to expand...

Authoritarians have two big delusions:

1) I know better than the generals.

2) Holding ground means I'm winning.
 
1664958899271.png


From:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1577494986781868033
 
An interesting story posted over in the General Railway Discussions thread by @dowlingm has some tangential implications as it pertains to the war in Ukraine.

Canada has just had some of its most successful wheat and canola growing seasons, ever.

Enough so to offset a great deal of losses to the world market due to the war.

However, we're apparently having a hell of a time getting it to market, as the railways are log jammed with insufficient rollingstock and capacity to move it all, with CP 3 weeks behind on pick-ups.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

BNN Bloomberg – Canada Business News, TSX Today & Interest Rates

Get the latest Canadian business news, TSX updates, interest rates and Bank of Canada coverage. Explore stock market investing and get expert financial insights on investment portfolio strategies.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca

The U.S. it seems, also had a good year for production, but their logistical challenge is apparently a bit different, apparently they normally move a sizable amount of grain via barge down the Mississippi which is currently too dry/shallow in spots for barge traffic.
 
Northern Light said:
An interesting story posted over in the General Railway Discussions thread by @dowlingm has some tangential implications as it pertains to the war in Ukraine.

Canada has just had some of its most successful wheat and canola growing seasons, ever.

Enough so to offset a great deal of losses to the world market due to the war.

However, we're apparently having a hell of a time getting it to market, as the railways are log jammed with insufficient rollingstock and capacity to move it all, with CP 3 weeks behind on pick-ups.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

BNN Bloomberg – Canada Business News, TSX Today & Interest Rates

Get the latest Canadian business news, TSX updates, interest rates and Bank of Canada coverage. Explore stock market investing and get expert financial insights on investment portfolio strategies.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca

The U.S. it seems, also had a good year for production, but their logistical challenge is apparently a bit different, apparently they normally move a sizable amount of grain via barge down the Mississippi which is currently too dry/shallow in spots for barge traffic.
Click to expand...

Could it not be airlifted?
 
Richard White said:
Could it not be airlifted?
Click to expand...

In a word; 'No'.

First and foremost, it would not be workable from a cost perspective. Grain is just not shipped by air, at least in any volume.

Second, the logistical capacity isn't there to do it.
 
You'd transport grain via truck long before you even considered by air (which is never)

You know how many planes you'd need to empty a single industrial silo?
 
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