2019 Canadian Federal Election

[Midtown Urbanist]

According to 338 projections, this NDP surge has killed the Green Party's chances to gain more than 2 seats. Basically the outcome I wanted least. That is disappointing, hoping for a pleasant surprise tomorrow though.

Liberals seemed to have a last minute surge as well. I guess voters are having late realization that as much as they are disappointed with Trudeau, they don't want Conservatives to govern.

Looks like we are heading towards Liberal minority. This election will be interesting at least because many many many ridings across the country are going to be hotly contested.

 

[Admiral Beez]

According to 338 projections, this NDP surge has killed the Green Party's chances to gain more than 2 seats.

Agreed. The Greens peaked way too soon. I’m still voting them though, as I can’t have Bill Morneau win uncontested, and the local Dipper is useless.

 

[Jonny5]

Mulclair had 19.7% support off of Laytons 30% the previous election. Signh getting 18% (if even) and that being spun into a positive by the NDP is a joke. It's a disaster to go backwards even more.

 

[Richard White]

According to 338 projections, this NDP surge has killed the Green Party's chances to gain more than 2 seats. Basically the outcome I wanted least. That is disappointing, hoping for a pleasant surprise tomorrow though.

Liberals seemed to have a last minute surge as well. I guess voters are having late realization that as much as they are disappointed with Trudeau, they don't want Conservatives to govern.

Looks like we are heading towards Liberal minority. This election will be interesting at least because many many many ridings across the country are going to be hotly contested.

I'm curious how Papineau plays out.

 

[BurlOak]

Interesting - if you consider only the people likely to vote, the CPC has ~34% to 33% lead over Liberals.
I wonder if that will play an effect.
Looking at the last row - it's clear that the biggest demographic opposed to the CPC are the people who don't really follow what's going on.
Maybe also interesting, the 4.7M who voted in the advanced polls (out of likely about 15M Canadian who will vote) is pretty close to the 36% polling rate of this group (i.e. people didn't really lie about whether they voted in the advanced polls).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1185957195671732224

 

[PinkLucy]

I know plenty of people who closely follow what's going on and always have. Not one of them is voting for the Conservatives. One in particular has made some public statements that given the lies promoted by the CPC's regarding changes to the GST by both the Liberals and NDP, a capital gains tax on primary residence (both of which are deliberate falsehoods), and the probable hiring of Warren Kinsella to discredit the PPC, despite being a life-long, card-carrying Conservative party member, they will not be voting for this iteration of Conservatives.

Your statement is spurious at best and bordering on trolling. Stick to the facts.

 

[Jasmine18]

I know plenty of people who closely follow what's going on and always have. Not one of them is voting for the Conservatives. One in particular has made some public statements that given the lies promoted by the CPC's regarding changes to the GST by both the Liberals and NDP, a capital gains tax on primary residence (both of which are deliberate falsehoods), and the probable hiring of Warren Kinsella to discredit the PPC, despite being a life-long, card-carrying Conservative party member, they will not be voting for this iteration of Conservatives.

Your statement is spurious at best and bordering on trolling. Stick to the facts.

Frankly, regardless of party, I find even intelligent people when they really follow a party and become highly partisan and become blind to reality.


This was a very negative election by the liberals and conservatives...

What has Trudeau offered in this election? Doing things differently? or fear-mongering non-stop... ?

 

[Richard White]

What I find most amusing is how people buy into the idea of tax cuts being a good thing.

They win votes for the CPC but people fail to realise you need a certain amount of taxes otherwise things that matter are cut. Cutting taxes everywhere only leads to service cuts elsewhere.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Agreed. The Greens peaked way too soon. I’m still voting them though, as I can’t have Bill Morneau win uncontested, and the local Dipper is useless.

I've made up my mind and will do the same in my riding. They were never in contention in my riding, but all the options disappoint me and I'd rather give my support to boost the Green's nationwide popular vote.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I've made up my mind and will do the same in my riding. They were never in contention in my riding, but all the options disappoint me and I'd rather give my support to boost the Green's nationwide popular vote.

My thinking is a strong % of the national popular vote for the Greens will help strengthen the push for Trudeau to keep to his 2015 promise of electoral reform.

 

[PinkLucy]

And to take more action on climate change initiatives.

 

[christiesplits]

My prediction:

CPC - 143
LIB - 132
BQC - 32
NDP - 27
GRN - 3
IND - 1 (JWR)
PPC - 0

 

[lenaitch]

Interesting - if you consider only the people likely to vote, the CPC has ~34% to 33% lead over Liberals.
I wonder if that will play an effect.
Looking at the last row - it's clear that the biggest demographic opposed to the CPC are the people who don't really follow what's going on.
Maybe also interesting, the 4.7M who voted in the advanced polls (out of likely about 15M Canadian who will vote) is pretty close to the 36% polling rate of this group (i.e. people didn't really lie about whether they voted in the advanced polls).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1185957195671732224

It's a pretty jagged line between "have not voted and not likely to vote" and "people who don't really follow what's going on".

 

[Jasmine18]

A bad outcome would be...

Tories win more seats and the popular vote (like by a decent margin)

NDP, Liberals and Green have to combine to get to 170

Tories will spend the next 18 months pushing they been robbed from power and political discourse getting much worse in this country,

 

[Richard White]

A bad outcome would be...

Tories win more seats and the popular vote (like by a decent margin)

NDP, Liberals and Green have to combine to get to 170

Tories will spend the next 18 months pushing they been robbed from power and political discourse getting much worse in this country,

I doubt a coalition would last very long.