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2019 Canadian Federal Election

mjl08

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#1
Taking a page from 2015, I figured it was time to start a thread for the 2019 federal election in October

If the 2015 fixed election date was any indication, it will be a very long campaign.

There are many early story lines. Free trade, carbon tax, refugees. Can Scheer make an impression on Canadians? Will Singh win the Burnaby by-election and get his party out of its funk? Is Maxime Bernier and the PPC a real threat?

In 2015, the Liberals won all 25 seats in Toronto. Most of the Liberal incumbents have been nominated for October, with Borys Wrzesnewsky, MP for Etobicoke Centre, indicating that he will retire.

Ted Opitz, former MP for Etobicoke Centre, is plotting a comeback and running for the Conservatives to replace Wrzesnewsky. Meanwhile, I’ve heard from Dipper sources that former Davenport MP Andrew Cash, who lost in 2015, is seeking his party’s nomination again.
 

Videodrome

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#2
My early predictions:

-The NDP gets wiped out
-The BQ fails to win a seat
-The Beauce Boyz don't make much of a dent in the CPC vote
-The Liberals increase their majority
 

MTown

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#3
My early predictions:

-The NDP gets wiped out
-The BQ fails to win a seat
-The Beauce Boyz don't make much of a dent in the CPC vote
-The Liberals increase their majority
That is some decent material for some wagers.
 

Videodrome

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#4
The Liberals might lose some seats they somehow flipped in 2015, but the NDP collapse will cancel that out.
 

lead82

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#5
I too agree that the NDP will collapse under Singh. They have lost their way and frankly are no longer needed in federal politics. The Liberals have gone left of centre. The big question is how the carbon tax plays out in suburban Canada. I think it will not go down well and may cost the Liberals many votes in 905 area and even 416. The trade will be a non issue as USMCA is basically a done deal - even Democrats will likely approve it.

The refugee problem may calm down with US having split party rule.

I'm hoping the Green Party picks up more seats and become a protest vote for Liberals who want more action on environment/sustainability policies but don't like the Liberal approach.
 

mjl08

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#6
One of the challenges for the NDP is that in the last two decades there has been a constant strategic vote in place among left-of-centre Canadians to vote for the party most likely to defeat the Conservatives. In only a few cases, the 2011 federal election and the 2018 provincial election, has this worked in the favour of the NDP. In both cases, the respective Liberal federal and provincial parties were in disarray and wildly unpopular.
 
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mjl08

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#8
Former mayoral candidate Saron Gebresellassi is running for the Parkdale High Park NDP nomination.
 

ErieHall

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#9
My theory is that since the Liberals have regained Quebec they will form at least minority governments in perpetuity until somebody else manages to break through in Quebec. Everything else is just noise.
 
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#11
Being an NDP candidate in any part of the country is a loss right now. Just look at the by-election result this week.
Though if I may qualify that, even at its best, the NDP only managed well behind in the teens in Leeds-Grenville--so while the optics are admittedly bad, the NDP could afford to offer basically a paper campaign there. (And they managed only *1%* in the Vaughan byelection but months before the Orange Crush.)

You may be correct in that under the present circumstance there's no "guaranteed" seat out there and they may even be reduced to save-the-furniture mode; but remember how, in their 1993 nadir, the NDP proved (even if a bit by accident) more efficient furniture-savers than the PCs.