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2019 Canadian Federal Election

Jasmine18

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I think getting 39% popular vote while holding 55% of the seats was a good enough reason for electoral reform. But at 30-32%, which polls are currently showing both the Conservatives and Liberals at, is most likely to end up with a minority government.
It should but we never had an election with two parties at 30 percent so it will get wild.
 

Northern Light

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Is it?

Last election it was commonly accepted that Mulcair campaigned to the centre and Trudeau to the left. In general, throughout the Western world I believe we're witnessing a trend where the Left has arguably abandoned many lower-case L liberal values it once espoused, while at the same time various Conservative pundits and politicians escaping the populism on the right have taken up the cause of free speech and civil liberties and found a new base of support in the political center.

Personally, I don't feel that my lower-case liberal values are best represented by the Liberal party anymore (as ironic as that reads). At the same time however, the above societal trends haven't yet coalesced at the party level here in Canada, so the Conservative Party remains as foreign and out-of-touch as it always has (@kEiThZ articulated whats wrong with the current Conservatives in the Trudeau thread). That leaves me, and I am willing to bet many other centrists, at a loss over who to vote for this election.

I'm sure whichever political faction is able to create a coalition between small-c conservatives, red tories, and liberal centrist voters, will win a future election.
I'll stick by my statement which was a disabusal of the notion that the Scheer conservatives now occupy the centre; and the Liberals are somehow on the extreme left.

I find both statements of those notions to be unsupportable.

All parties are proposing running deficits throughout their terms; I don't consider that to be a good idea; but it means there is no material policy differentiation here.

The Liberals are mostly proposing rhetorical flourish, stability of public policy, a few modest enhancements to social spending. Which sounds centre-right in my books.

The Conservatives are clearly proposing cuts/rollbacks of some description based on their platform; though for the most part they are unclear on which programs/transfers and how much of a cut.

They are far more focused on tax credits which while betraying sound fiscal principals, aren't truly centrist as most only give money back to those that already have it.

They don't propose anything substantive on the environment/climate change file or poverty reduction/equal opportunity.

That doesn't strike me as centrist in Canadian political terms.

There are many things on which Trudeau and Liberals can rightly be called out; including but not limited to lack of fiscal discipline, hypocrisy, willful failure to deliver platform promise (electoral reform); and too many photo-ops over substance.

But what they can't be called out for is governing from the left, their rhetoric notwithstanding.

Nor can Conservatives in their current federal conception be called the mainstream centre.
 

Hopkins123

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Scheer has to be the only Centrist, because they way I view it there's four parties to the Left of him and one to the Right. It leaves a large void in the middle and political stability may be a driving factor for voters in these final 72 hours.
 

jje1000

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Not really. Harper and Scheer have views that many would paint as 'far right'. In practice I agree they were essentially centre (at least in the case of Harper) - Trudeau has, overall, been pretty firmly in the centre.
Trudeau is definitely on the left socially (especially with some heavy equity pushes that some might consider passing the NDP), but a neoliberal economically. Whether that's left of centre or right of centre depends, IMO.
 

syn

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Trudeau is definitely on the left socially (especially with some heavy equity pushes that some might consider passing the NDP), but a neoliberal economically. Whether that's left of centre or right of centre depends, IMO.
You can certainly point to certain social issues to paint either party as left or right, but I was referring to their overall governance. Take away the labels, put a list of things they've done and they're a lot more a like than many would care to admit.
 

BurlOak

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Trudeau is definitely on the left socially (especially with some heavy equity pushes that some might consider passing the NDP), but a neoliberal economically. Whether that's left of centre or right of centre depends, IMO.
Imagine if Harper would have disqualified any organization from summer jobs grants unless they signed a document that they were Pro-Life.
 

BurlOak

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All parties are proposing running deficits throughout their terms; I don't consider that to be a good idea; but it means there is no material policy differentiation here.
That's like saying Scheer getting a parking ticket is equivalent to Trudeau breaking the Ethics Act 13 times.
This is how I see the deficit - true, they all stay in deficit for 4 years.
210223
 

jje1000

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Surprisingly high numbers for a minority? Or in line with the norm?

Personally a minority government would be best considering the current crop of leaders.

Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals.
Support for a minority government—now the likely outcome—is at 40 per cent, with some voters in every party hoping there’s no majority
by Aaron Hutchins Oct 17, 2019
Even Liberal supporters aren’t all completely sold that they want Justin Trudeau to win a second majority government.

When presented with a hypothetical scenario in which the Liberals win the most seats on Election Day, nearly one-quarter of Liberal partisans (22 per cent) said they’d rather Team Trudeau win a minority of the seats in Parliament, according to a poll done by Innovative Research Group for Maclean’s. Another six per cent of Liberal supporters said they didn’t know if they preferred a Liberal majority of minority. Among Conservative backers, 12 per cent would prefer their party to win a minority, with four per cent unsure.

As a whole, 40 per cent of Canadians polled by Innovative said they’d rather the election end with a minority government, compared to 43 per cent who said they’d like a majority government. (The other 17 per cent are still unsure.)
“There are some voters within the base of every party that would be happy to see their party have a minority because they’re not completely sold on everything their party wants to do—which I think is healthy,” says Greg Lyle, the president of Innovative Research. “Leaders don’t get a blank cheque, even from their own people.”
 

Northern Light

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That's like saying Scheer getting a parking ticket is equivalent to Trudeau breaking the Ethics Act 13 times.
This is how I see the deficit - true, they all stay in deficit for 4 years.
View attachment 210223
Your allusions are specious as always.

Your charts only slightly better.

You manged to neither place the absolute deficit numbers, nor the debt to GDP ratio; such that the chart, assuming it is otherwise accurate (I won't even bother checking), is somewhere between misleading and useless.

On top of which, you have done nothing to identify whether those numbers are realistic. (hint, the Conservative numbers are not, for the simple reason, that even their base would find the required cuts to achieve them deeply offensive).
 

BurlOak

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Your allusions are specious as always.

Your charts only slightly better.

You manged to neither place the absolute deficit numbers, nor the debt to GDP ratio; such that the chart, assuming it is otherwise accurate (I won't even bother checking), is somewhere between misleading and useless.

On top of which, you have done nothing to identify whether those numbers are realistic. (hint, the Conservative numbers are not, for the simple reason, that even their base would find the required cuts to achieve them deeply offensive).
You have got to be kidding me. There are no numbers on the graph so of course it's just a representation. Trudeau hasn't costed his pharmacare promise or others so it's impossible to accurately plot this. There is also the fact that based on history, Trudeau's estimate could be off by 290%.
Conservative fiscal plan gets a triple pass from former budget watchdog
Although this link may not be accurate, since it talks about "cuts" (it is a Star link after all so they have to find a way of skewing the truth), but these are those fictitious cuts were spending actually goes up - not real cuts as was done by Chretien in the 1990's.
 

Northern Light

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You have got to be kidding me. There are no numbers on the graph so of course it's just a representation. Trudeau hasn't costed his pharmacare promise or others so it's impossible to accurately plot this. There is also the fact that based on history, Trudeau's estimate could be off by 290%.
Conservative fiscal plan gets a triple pass from former budget watchdog
Although this link may not be accurate, since it talks about "cuts" (it is a Star link after all so they have to find a way of skewing the truth), but these are those fictitious cuts were spending actually goes up - not real cuts as was done by Chretien in the 1990's.
Perhaps you'd like to examine the party's actual document?????

210237


That's from here: https://cpc-platform.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/CPC_Platform_Costing.pdf

Kindly note: line 3 more than 14B in unspecified reductions.

That is neither fiscally sound, nor reasonable, nor politically viable.

Amusing as well in that it takes the plan beyond the life of the government in order to reach balance in a fictional second term. (unless the fixed date election law is being repealed).

That's before considering deferred investment in infrastructure, or the mystery money from better tax law enforcement.

Also from the article you posted:

"In an interview Friday, Page said the Conservatives have put forward a different type of spending plan than their main national rivals, the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens. Where those parties are heavy on government spending, Page said, the Conservatives are looking to make “pretty significant” cuts. "

***



What Page did not assess was the political viability of implementing said cuts.
 

syn

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Imagine if Harper would have disqualified any organization from summer jobs grants unless they signed a document that they were Pro-Life.
Imagine if Trudeau would've denied citizenship to someone based on their cultural dress.

Imagine if Trudeau would've created a barbaric cultural practices hotline to target immigrant communities.

Just imagine....
 

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