2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[ADRM]

most debt ridden Province of State in North America

Okay, I'll give you a shot at actually proving you know what you're talking about before assuming you don't know what you're talking about: by which measure are you asserting that this is the case?

 

[jje1000]

Okay, explain, in detail and without relying on tired conservative tropes, how it will lead to higher taxes.

Not taxes, but certainly hydro prices are continuing to go up.

Stripped of any political slant, the pure costs of the Liberal's energy policy:

http://business.financialpost.com/o...stem/wcm/a54c7399-be71-47d0-893b-95e2b9b8f2f9

And:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ntario-economy-entrepreneurs/article35454118/



And the Liberal's patchjob to salvage their popularity:

Ontario Liberals' Hydro Rate Cut Will Cost $21B In Long Run: Watchdog

Ontario's budget watchdog says the Liberal government will spend $45 billion over the life of its hydro plan to save people $24 billion on their electricity bills.

A report from the financial accountability officer says this means there will be a net cost of $21 billion to Ontarians over the approximately 30 years of the plan.

The $45 billion is mostly the cost of funding an eight-per-cent rebate that took effect on bills in January, but that assumes balanced budgets for the next 30 years.

The FAO says if the government has to fund that rebate through debt, the cost to the province could balloon up to $93 billion.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/0...ydro-rate-cut-budget-watchdog_n_16783768.html

A vote for the Ontario Tories is a vote for social conservatism whether you want to talk about it or not. They have openly homophobic members in their caucus and not even the Toronto Sun can deny that.

I think you're confusing bias with inconvenient truths.

I'll wait until their platform comes up to decide whether or not the Tories are worth voting for- there are a lot of so-con dinosaurs in the legislature- and sidelining them and redirecting party policy will not be easy.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Fine ... vote for the New Democrats, then.

Funny joke.

If this were Bob Rae NDPers, I'd consider it.

But they are not. Their current leadership is anti-Toronto, and their base is currently infatuated with playing identity politics so any change of leadership/policy in the NDP does not instill confidence.

 

[BayStBoi]

Okay, I'll give you a shot at actually proving you know what you're talking about before assuming you don't know what you're talking about: by which measure are you asserting that this is the case?

Not just in North America. Largest sub-national debt in the world.
http://business.financialpost.com/n...ower/wcm/30c38ab9-4a3f-4f39-ac95-4d9516013d89

 

[ADRM]

Not taxes, but certainly hydro prices are continuing to go up.

Stripped of any political slant, the pure costs of the Liberal's energy policy:

http://business.financialpost.com/o...stem/wcm/a54c7399-be71-47d0-893b-95e2b9b8f2f9

And:

View attachment 115736
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ntario-economy-entrepreneurs/article35454118/



And the Liberal's patchjob to salvage their popularity:

Ontario Liberals' Hydro Rate Cut Will Cost $21B In Long Run: Watchdog



http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/0...ydro-rate-cut-budget-watchdog_n_16783768.html



I'll wait until their platform comes up to decide whether or not the Tories are worth voting for- there are a lot of so-con dinosaurs in the legislature- and sidelining them and redirecting party policy will not be easy.

First off, wind and solar (two of the favourite Conservative/Sun whipping boys) account for around 10% of Ontario's power generation. And, that notwithstanding, do you like not breathing coal remnants through your lungs every day? I sure as shit appreciate that I don't have to.

If you want a genuinely balanced read on the state of the electricity system (with critiques of both Tory and Liberal policies/decisions), this Globe piece is a pretty good place to start: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...city-cost-so-much-in-ontario/article33453270/

Shockingly, the conclusions are that it's complicated and that Ontario doesn't actually have particularly high electricity prices if you're actually interested in relevant cross-jurisdictional comparisons.

If you're interested in a non-media, nonpartisan approach to the same questions, the independent Financial Accountability Office offers similar refutations (presented using more balanced language, of course) to the classic Conservative/Sun talking points: http://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/home_energy

Here's a nice encapsulation of the FAO's conclusion:
On average, Ontarians have lower home energy costs than Atlantic Canadians but higher costs than our neighbours in Quebec and Manitoba (Figure 1). Albertans spend more on home energy than Ontarians. British Columbians enjoy the lowest home energy costs in Canada. Differences across Canada in part reflect the availability and adoption of different energy sources such as electricity, natural gas and other fuels, which include heating oil.

Interestingly, and I hadn't seen this one before, the FAO also contextualizes the discussion given that Ontario is wealthier, on average, than other provinces. When you adjust to account for Ontarians' higher average after-tax income, what we pay as a percentage of our income moves us down into the middle of the pack:

The Globe article correctly notes that Manitoba and Quebec are useless comps because they generate about 98% of their power from water. Their power is cheaper because of geography, not because they've not had Liberal governments for the last decade-plus. Similarly, Alberta and Saskatchewan get shit tons of power from coal power plants. And when you look at western Europe, of course, we look like petty and provincial little children for moaning about our energy prices.

I get why some folks are upset; no one likes consistently increasing prices. And maybe I'm more inured to it because, now living in Ontario, I now pay far less for my energy than I have in any of the last three places in which I've lived. A little perspective can go a long way.

 

[ADRM]

Not just in North America. Largest sub-national debt in the world.
http://business.financialpost.com/n...ower/wcm/30c38ab9-4a3f-4f39-ac95-4d9516013d89

Yeah, except it's not true. Not including pension liabilities in an accounting of total debt is a bit like going to the bank and saying you have no debt because you paid off your most recent credit card bill, and then failing to mention that you have a $600K mortgage to pay down.

And not adjusting for differences in the size of populations and economies is just laughably transparent; Ontario has more debt than Bermuda -- what a shock! Bermuda's 65,000 inhabitants must be just rolling in it.

It should be possible to be a fiscal conservative, advocate for tighter overall spending limits, and support the gradual paying-down of the province's debt without resorting to distortions and mistruths. That's where I find myself, personally.

 

[BurlOak]

First off, wind and solar (two of the favourite Conservative/Sun whipping boys) account for around 10% of Ontario's power generation. And, that notwithstanding, do you like not breathing coal remnants through your lungs every day?

Is 10% the peak potential capacity, which is never met, or the actual amount produced.

I recalled checking a while ago near peak and renewables were producing <2%.

i think the coal is meaningless since it was phased out in +\-2015* and gas is used on the smog days anyway

*- the Liberal promise was to eliminate coal by 2007, while the PC one was for 2015 - essentially the same result just one party was honest about it.

 

[BurlOak]

Okay, explain, in detail and without relying on tired conservative tropes, how it will lead to higher taxes.

Well I think the auditor put the cost of the Liberal energy fiasco at $37B, and that was for the period of 2007 to 2015 (or thereabouts). There's also the locked in future costs. This money won't grow on trees.

 

[narduch]

And the sale of Hydro One is only going to make it worse.

The Ontario Energy Board will continue to allow them to increase prices to make share holders happy.

The Ontario Liberals really fucked Ontarians hard on this issue.

 

[jje1000]

First off, wind and solar (two of the favourite Conservative/Sun whipping boys) account for around 10% of Ontario's power generation. And, that notwithstanding, do you like not breathing coal remnants through your lungs every day? I sure as shit appreciate that I don't have to.

If you want a genuinely balanced read on the state of the electricity system (with critiques of both Tory and Liberal policies/decisions), this Globe piece is a pretty good place to start: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...city-cost-so-much-in-ontario/article33453270/

Shockingly, the conclusions are that it's complicated and that Ontario doesn't actually have particularly high electricity prices if you're actually interested in relevant cross-jurisdictional comparisons.

The issue isn't about wind or solar- it's about the amount of extra money that we paid for these energy sources. Yes- eliminating coal was necessary (when did I ever oppose that)- and yes - the electrical system was a mess even before the Liberals took power, but the issue is that the whole Liberal energy policy was flawed and we now not only have too much energy- we overpay for it as well.

From that Globe article:

The private sector would be responsible for cost overruns and other construction problems in exchange for 20-year contracts from the province. The contracts essentially guaranteed that the companies would receive a certain amount of revenue – no matter how much electricity their plants produced (though they would be paid more if the province used their electricity).

The first major wave of private power plants was fuelled with natural gas. Later plants were tied to the Green Energy Act, which provided lucrative terms for wind and solar plants in a bid to build a renewable-power industry in the province. One of the most famous deals was a sole-source contract with a Samsung-led consortium, which included locating factories building green-energy equipment in the province.

The cost of all this is passed on to ratepayers in the form of higher electricity bills. Auditor-General Bonnie Lysyk estimates that the “global adjustment charge” – the government’s term for the costs in the system above the market rate for electricity – accounts for some 70 per cent of the average electricity bill.

So the province has a massive surplus of generating capacity, but because much of it is tied up in private, 20-year contracts, Ontarians have to pay for all that electricity – whether they need it or not.

In 2015, Ms. Lysyk calculated that Ontarians had paid $37-billion more than market price for electricity from 2006 to 2014 and would pay another $133-billion extra by 2032.

Some of this cost was unavoidable: The province has to pay for fixed contracts that guarantee Ontarians have access to a steady supply of power. But there is no doubt, given the vast amount of surplus generating capacity, that the province has overpaid unnecessarily.

The main takeaway?

This -->

Auditor-General Bonnie Lysyk estimates that the “global adjustment charge” – the government’s term for the costs in the system above the market rate for electricity – accounts for some 70 per cent of the average electricity bill.

And this classic article of course, from the same Adrian Morrow:

Ontarians paid $37-billion above market for electricity over eight years, Auditor-General's report says

Ontarians have paid $37-billion more than market price for electricity over eight years and will pay another $133-billion extra by 2032 as a result of haphazard planning and political meddling, a report from the Auditor-General says. The Liberal government has repeatedly overruled expert advice – and even tore up two long-term plans from the Ontario Power Authority for the electricity system – in favour of political decisions that drove up power costs for consumers, the report says.

What’s more, Hydro One is in rough shape, with ever-increasing numbers of power outages and aging equipment “at very high risk of failing” that needs $4.472-billion worth of repairs – even as the province is selling 60 per cent of the company to the private sector.

[...]

“We found that the electricity power planning process had essentially broken down over the past decade,” Ms. Lysyk said at a Queen’s Park news conference. “The [energy] ministry has made a number of decisions about power generation that went against the OPA’s technical advice. In addition, these decisions did not fully consider the state of the electricity market or the cost impact on consumers.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...ctricity-over-eight-years-ag/article27560753/

Heck, Glenn Thibeault admitted that the way green energy was procured was flawed:

Thibeault says the implementation of the Green Energy Act has led to “sub-optimal outcomes” for consumers and to increased prices in electricity for families and businesses in Ontario.

In a speech delivered Friday to the Economic Club of Canada, the energy minister indicated that Ontario’s Feed-in-Tariff program, or FIT, has resulted in over-manipulation of the province’s energy sector and to the removal of competitive incentives for energy producers.

Referring to the FIT program, which awards energy producers long-term contracts with rates as high as 40-times the fair market value of electricity, Thibeault said the government’s implementation of its own renewable energy strategy is at least partly to blame for the rising cost of electricity in Ontario.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3272095/ontario-energy-minister-admits-mistake-with-green-energy-program/


On an interesting note, while wind and solar are just 10% of the total installed capacity- you also need natural gas plants as an intermittent power generation to fill in the gaps where there isn't enough wind or sun. In fact- ironically in Germany, they use coal power as the intermittent energy source!

So at certain times- green energy can in fact be contributing 0% with natural gas filling in the gaps. And remember the quote from the Globe above- companies get paid even if their green energy isn't contributing anything!

These are extra costs and sources of pollutants that you usually don't think of when you imagine green energy.

From the IESO website on current energy projects- note the corresponding expansion of natural gas and wind projects:

http://www.ieso.ca/power-data/supply-overview/transmission-connected-generation

Furthermore, as stated before, we aren't as expensive as NY, San Fran or Boston (which are expensive cities!) nor should we aspire to be like Detroit- the issue is that we're not so much competing against them- our economic competitors are more Quebec, Ohio and Illinois. These energy costs play a role in altering our economic competitiveness along with other curveballs like $15 minimum wage and Carbon Pricing.

The FAO account is interesting, and takes into account both electrical, natural gas prices and other energy sources in terms of prices.

In this case, electrical prices have been rising far more than average (this is where the outrage is) while natural gas prices are still fairly reasonable. Your home energy cost can vary massively depending on what kind of heating you use- rural areas do not have easy access to natural gas and as such were disproportionately impacted by rises in energy costs- hence the whole issue of rural citizens literally not being able to pay for hydro because of their limited budgets, and the recent push by the Liberals to extend natural gas out into rural regions.

Overall, the issue isn't whether or not we the pay the same prices relatively proportionately- it's the fact hydro costs rose so much in the first place. Why should we settle for relatively middle-of-the-pack (ignoring Quebec's recent economic blossoming boosting Montreal incomes nearly to par with Toronto incomes), when we could have had it better?

If you're interested in a non-media, nonpartisan approach to the same questions, the independent Financial Accountability Office offers similar refutations (presented using more balanced language, of course) to the classic Conservative/Sun talking points: http://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/home_energy

[...]

Interestingly, and I hadn't seen this one before, the FAO also contextualizes the discussion given that Ontario is wealthier, on average, than other provinces. When you adjust to account for Ontarians' higher average after-tax income, what we pay as a percentage of our income moves us down into the middle of the pack:

I get why some folks are upset; no one likes consistently increasing prices. And maybe I'm more inured to it because, now living in Ontario, I now pay far less for my energy than I have in any of the last three places in which I've lived. A little perspective can go a long way.

Of course, a little perspective can also enlighten the rest of us- how comparable were the places you lived in?

 

[Bob Burnhamthorpe]

The issue isn't about wind or solar- it's about the amount of extra money that we paid for these energy sources. Yes- eliminating coal was necessary (when did I ever oppose that)- and yes - the electrical system was a mess even before the Liberals took power, but the issue is that the whole Liberal energy policy was flawed and we now not only have too much energy- we overpay for it as well.

From that Globe article:






The main takeaway?

This -->



And this classic article of course, from the same Adrian Morrow:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...ctricity-over-eight-years-ag/article27560753/

Heck, Glenn Thibeault admitted that the way green energy was procured was flawed:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3272095/ontario-energy-minister-admits-mistake-with-green-energy-program/


On an interesting note, while wind and solar are just 10% of the total installed capacity- you also need natural gas plants as an intermittent power generation to fill in the gaps where there isn't enough wind or sun. So at certain times- green energy can in fact be contributing 0% with natural gas filling in the gaps. In fact- ironically in Germany, they use coal power as the intermittent energy source!

These are extra costs and sources of pollutants that you usually don't think of when you imagine green energy.

From the IESO website on current energy projects- note the corresponding expansion of natural gas and wind projects:

http://www.ieso.ca/power-data/supply-overview/transmission-connected-generation

Furthermore, as stated before, while we aren't as expensive as NY, San Fran or Boston (which are expensive cities!), nor should we aspire to be like Detroit- the issue is that we're not so much competing against them- our economic competitors are more Quebec, Ohio and Illinois. These energy costs play a role in altering our economic competitiveness along with other curveballs like $15 minimum wage and Carbon Pricing.

The FAO account is interesting, and takes into account both electrical, natural gas prices and other energy sources in terms of prices.

In this case, electrical prices have been rising far more than average (this is where the outrage is) while natural gas prices are still fairly reasonable. Your home energy cost can vary massively depending on what kind of heating you use- rural areas do not have easy access to natural gas and as such were disproportionately impacted by rises in energy costs- hence the recent push by the Liberals to extend natural gas out into rural regions.

Overall, the issue isn't whether or not we the pay the same prices relatively proportionately- it's the fact hydro costs rose so much in the first place. Why should we settle for relatively middle-of-the-pack (ignoring Quebec's recent economic blossoming), when we could have had it better?



Of course, a little perspective can also enlighten the rest of us- how comparable were the places you lived in?

Mind condensing this post into a neatly packaged tweet?

 

[jje1000]

These energy costs play a role in altering our economic competitiveness along with other curveballs like $15 minimum wage and Carbon Pricing.

To illustrate the impact of these recent curveballs over the last year- Magna International is now reconsidering operations in this province. You'd think they'd be here for awhile... until they aren't (much like the Siemens turbine plant).

And the terrifying thing about mid-high-tech manufacturing shutdowns like these is that we lose not only manufacturing capacity, but the skills and networks cultivated also begin to dissipate. This was noted as one of reasons why Ontario missed out on some of the manufacturing revival that happened in Canada, and especially Quebec. The capacity to take on extra work simply wasn't there due to plant shutdowns and the fact that former employees had moved on!

All of this cascading from the Liberal's knee-jerk attempts to salvage their popularity at the cost of Ontario's economic competitiveness. Remember this quote:

When the Liberal government just 3 years ago formalized a new policy to tie annual increases in the minimum wage to the annual increases in inflation plus a fuller review every 5 years, Wynn praised it as a rational, effective approach to the issue. Even the business community was behind it because it gave them predictability for planning purposes.

But this was before Wynn plummeted in the polls to the lowest popularity ratings of any leader in Canada with an election looming in less than a year.

Magna says Ontario's proposed labour laws make province 'uncompetitive'
Changes would make just-in-time production 'impossible'

Canada’s Magna International says proposed changes to Ontario labour laws would make doing business in the province nearly impossible for the auto parts giant.

A fellow Tier 1 supplier has similar concerns. The Narmco Group in Windsor said in its submission: “We have current collective agreements where the starting wage, which was fairly bargained with the union, is currently less than $15. Long-term contracts with our customers were set on the certainty of the fixed costs negotiated with the union and previously announced schedule of the Ontario government which limited increases in minimum wage to the rate of inflation.”

Magna said it is worried about being able to remain competitive globally, calling the changes "restrictive" and "uncompetitive."

“Companies like Magna are generally not competing for business against other firms in Ontario — but with manufacturers on the global stage, and most particularly, in nearby states like Michigan, Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia and elsewhere,” it said.

http://canada.autonews.com/article/...ke-province-uncompetitive?X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

 

[steveintoronto]

what's "sensible conservatism"?

You might want to start here: (but maybe not, when you have two right feet, sensible shoes don't fit)

Reading Burke in Sydney: Tony Abbott's Sensible Conservatism | The ...
nationalinterest.org/.../reading-burke-sydney-tony-abbotts-sensible-conservatism-103...
Apr 22, 2014 - TONY ABBOTT LIKES TO TELL THE STORY about his first visit to the United States as a newly elected member of the Australian Parliament.
Who are somewhat sensible conservatives to follow on Twitter? - Quora
https://www.quora.com/Who-are-somewhat-sensible-conservatives-to-follow-on-Twitter
“Somewhat sensible”. Ok, moving past… that. Here's a list of some I really enjoy who don't give a “cookie cutter” conservative response to issues, but offer an often ...
Kasich's Sensible Conservatism | The American Spectator
https://spectator.org/64399_kasichs-sensible-conservatism/
Oct 19, 2015 - This is what Kasich calls sensible conservatism and what he espouses. His heart embraces the person while his mind analyzes each situation ...

etc, etc, etc....

Mind condensing this post into a neatly packaged tweet?

Hey! Spicer's looking for a job, he can't do any worse than his ex-boss. (Sad)

 

[Jasmine18]

Its rather simple, Ontario went for expensive Nuclear plants and completely failed in Green Energy Production.

Quebec has power capacity then they would ever need but we never worked with them to get cheap long term sustainable energy.

You know why the oNtario liberals never did this, because they think pricing energy at affordable rates is the way to drive down electricity usage, which is stupid is as that impact the bottom line of the average person they supposedly look out for.

 

[steveintoronto]

Its rather simple, Ontario went for expensive Nuclear plants

I see, so that was Wynne's doing? And don't forget the Charge of the Light Brigade too.
Wynne and her predecessors are due many criticisms, but Ontario's nuclear program has its basis in the Conservatives half a century ago.

Not only that:

New nuclear reactors not in Ontario's future
Liberals say province doesn't need the power generated by two new nuclear reactors
The Canadian Press Posted: Oct 10, 2013 5:17 PM ET Last Updated: Oct 10, 2013 5:17 PM ET

Ontario's Liberal government on Thursday abandoned plans to spend billions of dollars to build two new nuclear
reactors, saying the province doesn't need the power to meet its electricity demand.

"New nuclear will not be part of the long-term energy plan which we hope to finalize before the end of this year," Energy Minister Bob Chiarelli told reporters.

"We're in a comfortable surplus position at this point in time, and it's not advisable to make the major investments in new nuclear."

Costs have fallen since the province first paused its plans to build two new reactors in 2009, when the estimated price was said to be as high as $26 billion.

"The costs have come down, but they have not come down enough to justify us building new nuclear when we have a very comfortable surplus," said Chiarelli.

"It is not wise to invest billions and billions of dollars in new nuclear when the power is not needed."

The Progressive Conservatives said backing off on the new reactors was proof the Liberals have given up on getting Ontario's manufacturing sector back on its feet, which would drive up demand for electricity.

"There is no clearer indication that this government has tossed up the white flag to say that the jobs aren't coming back, and that is incredibly concerning to me," said PC energy critic Lisa MacLeod. "We know that if the economy is to pick up, we're going to need those nuclear reactors." [...]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/new-nuclear-reactors-not-in-ontario-s-future-1.1959328

So which way is it?