2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Jasmine18]

You have to remember being in a jurisdiction with sky high hydro prices and then sky high car insurance and then sky high taxes and housing prices..


Is different from only having 1 or 2 of those factors.


Nonetheless, A Pox on the Ontario liberals over hydro literally...

 

[Northern Light]

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ost-to-minimum-wage-work-conditions-cohn.html

I don't know that this is enough to save the Liberals, that's a tall order.

But if implemented, I actually believe this is some of the most progressive stuff I've seen out of a provincial government in the last 30 years.

I think it will be reasonably popular.

I also think it will have an interesting effect on the opposition; can the NDP run to the left of this? Would the Tories dare to repeal any of it?

I'm curious about the public musing on 3 weeks vacation, which I favour; but I had thought they would for for paid sick days first, since many US states have, and there seems to be momentum in that space. Maybe they still will, but I had assumed they wouldn't go for both at once.

We shall see.

 

[Jasmine18]

I am not against such ideas, I just think after 14-15 years the liberals need to be kicked out and a new breed of leaders can come in with some humility.

No matter what, any party that is in office for so long becomes corrupt and arrogant.

 

[narduch]

I'm not sure raising the minimum wage is a big vote getter.

 

[Northern Light]

A further story on this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...kplaces-review-employment-standards-1.4112107

It would appear they are contemplating both paid sick days and a move to 3 weeks paid vacation. If so, I laud them. (on this score)

***

As to the politics of it all. I can tell you paid sick days will go over well w/many, as will three weeks paid vacation, both of those moves could affect many workers paid well above minimum.

The add-on of a material rise in min. wage and its knock-on affect is not to be sneezed at either.

That said, if voters have already made up their minds, this may not change them. Further, there is a question about whether enough of this would kick-in soon enough to (ie, well before the next election) to be of material help to the Liberals.

One of their many flaws is to be seen to do the 'right' thing only when the other options are exhausted, and then, late and over-budget.

In other words, they have credibility issues w/many.

So a promise of change at some point in the indefinite future may not be helpful.

 

[jje1000]

Definitely a credibility level- most of these ideas are very sound other than raising the minimum wage across all levels (rather than a targeted approach that Seattle took), which will simply speed up automation.

However the fact that the Liberals simply took this long to introduce these reforms, and the fact that all these reforms show up right before an election does feel like they're throwing everything and the kitchen sink into remaining in power.

 

[Bayer]

I was expecting the Liberals to move to the left, as that strategy is usually successful for them. But the elections are more than a year from now. I am not expecting the government to sit and do nothing for a year just because any attempt to do anything that might prove popular would look desperate. In any event, I would be in favour of the various changes that are suggested, even though I would have preferred large investments in social housing or housing assistance. Those improvements would be very hard for the Conservatives to cancel, and the NDP will be hard-pressed to complain credibly about them.

 

[jje1000]

I hope it pushes the Conservatives to focus on actual issues like hydro prices and provincial finances, and the NDP to actually be a leftist party.

 

[kEiThZ]

Patrick Brown is going rather hard on getting the minority votes in the suburbs.

Seen him at a ton of local community events (indian) and never saw Tim Hudak.

So it seems liberals will be fighting a multi front war in 2018 (that usually does not work out well historically lol)

The provincial conservatives are finally learning what the federal conservatives learned: minority communities are natural conservatives. Although Cho won the by-election on name recognition, I think winning a riding that has been Liberal for over 30 years emboldened them a ton. Showed them that 416 seats are indeed winnable with the right candidate.

Now, I wonder, if they win, how they'll deliver on Cho's promise of a subway to Malvern.

 

[kEiThZ]

I am not against such ideas, I just think after 14-15 years the liberals need to be kicked out and a new breed of leaders can come in with some humility.

No matter what, any party that is in office for so long becomes corrupt and arrogant.

Agreed. I always say that governments, like underwear, should be changed regularly.

The Liberals, simply look tired to me. They keep moving from scandal to scandal. And they are obstinate. Refusing to dump Wynne. They could use a turn on the Opposition benches to sort themselves. The Conservatives might get in and slash a few things. Creates fiscal room for the next Liberal government and the cycle continues.....

 

[jje1000]

It's weird that in the US, minority communities (even Asian ones which vote Conservative up here) tend to vote Democrat consistently.

Probably because their system is to the far right of ours- I think a healthy sign of integration in immigrant communities (and healthy politics in general) is when immigrant concerns are no longer beholden to a single party.

 

[kEiThZ]

It's weird that in the US, minority communities (even Asian ones which vote Conservative up here) tend to vote Democrat consistently.

Has not always been that way:

http://prospect.org/article/how-asian-americans-became-democrats-0

Asians have steadily drifted to Democrats since the 90s, largely because Republicans have become more exclusionist. But there's a lot of frustration among Asians in the US, that could well pull them rightward again:

http://www.economist.com/news/brief...successful-minority-they-are-complaining-ever

Our minority groups have been staunch Liberals largely because there's a perception that the Liberals were pro-immigration and allowed them in. Outreach can change a lot of that though. Especially if the outreach addresses a lot of their immediate local concerns. During Cho's by-election, transit was a massive issue. Aside from the new sex ed curriculum (doesn't sit well with a lot of immigrant families) and general perception of the Queen's Park Liberals as corrupt. The local Liberal candidate definitely had an uphill climb. And the Conservatives have learned that minorities are pretty much like most other groups. They care more about "bread and butter" issues than anything else. In fact, I'll go so far as to say Wynne's social progressivism might actual turn off minority voters.

My prediction is that Brown will win. And he'll do it by doing well in the immigrant heavy suburban communities, who really don't give a hoot about all the complaints about his social conservatism. And if the Scarborough subway and RER happen on his watch? He'll probably do well at re-election too.

 

[Jasmine18]

Well the way I look at it Patrick Brown tories will likely win back seats like Barrie and Burlington and in Durham region back from the Liberals.

Then they have to break into the 905 and Oakville and York Region is their best bets.

If they win some seats in Peel region, then they have won really.

 

[christiesplits]

According to Warren Kinsella the Liberals are polling third in the Sault Ste Marie byelection, despite the riding being held by a Liberal.

 

[jje1000]

9+ boost for the liberals after their vote-buying spree, taken evenly from all other parties (some more from the NDP, no surprise). The PC party needs to start discussing policy from late 2017 into 2018 at least. At the moment they're still a huge empty question mark.

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1103 Ontario voters, more than 4-in-10 (41%) say they would support the Progressive Conservatives. More than a quarter (28%) say they would support the Liberals, just under a quarter (23%) say they would support the NDP. (6%) say they support the Green Party, and (3%) say they would support another party.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/e66f6649-e86b-4007-ac85-2cbf6bacaa7aOntario Horserace.pdf