Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
Guelph would be a pretty hard strategic loss for the Liberals long term. Liz Sandals was the MPP for a very long time.
|
|
|
2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion
- Thread starter MetroMan
- Start date
W. K. Lis
Superstar
But you'll save money on your teeth or medicine with both Liberals and NDP.
StatGeek
Active Member
Haven't been on in a while. My prediction of the 2014 election was pretty close in the percentage. I predicted Lib-38%, PC-33%, NDP-23%, Green-5% (actual results L-39, C-31, N-24, G-5) My formula is to take the top 4 polls from the last election and average it out with weight on who had most success.
Currently I have it as NDP-38%, PC-35%, Lib-20% and Green-5%
The real depressing thing about it all. Even with a 3 points behind the PC is still on track to win a majority with 65 seats, NDP 51 seats and Liberal 8 seats.
Currently I have it as NDP-38%, PC-35%, Lib-20% and Green-5%
The real depressing thing about it all. Even with a 3 points behind the PC is still on track to win a majority with 65 seats, NDP 51 seats and Liberal 8 seats.
steveintoronto
Superstar
Sandal's retirement paved the way for the Greens to finally gain the riding. Guelph has always been a Green-leaning city-state. Even the present Mayor, elected with PC roots, has started sprouting leaves.
There's also the chance for Guelph to have disproportionate representation in terms of statuture by being 'Green Central'.
As for "Strategic Liberal Loss"...they're going to be taking it full on in many ridings.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
Some other ridings from yesterday's polls:
The NDP is really moving up in Ottawa. They're tied with the PCs in Ottawa West-Nepean. And McGuinty's old seat of Ottawa South, the PCs have a slight lead (35%), with the Liberals and NDP close behind
In St. Catharines, the longest-serving MPP, Jim Bradley, is poised to lose to the NDP, PCs in second.
The NDP is really moving up in Ottawa. They're tied with the PCs in Ottawa West-Nepean. And McGuinty's old seat of Ottawa South, the PCs have a slight lead (35%), with the Liberals and NDP close behind
In St. Catharines, the longest-serving MPP, Jim Bradley, is poised to lose to the NDP, PCs in second.
christiesplits
Senior Member
I'll be very happy for the Green Party leader if he wins Guelph, but I can't help but feel that the strategic vote will help the NDP win by a nail. Also wouldn't be surprising if the three left-of-centre parties split the vote and the local PC candidate eeks out a win.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
While Andrea Horwath isn't exactly Jack Layton, Kathleen Wynne has been coming off much more like the uptown patrician that she is than a downtown progressive in this campaign.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
Today's Mainstreet riding polls:
Charles Sousa is poised for a big defeat in Mississauga-Lakeshore, PCs have a 20 point lead.
NDP and PCs are very close in Brampton North and West ridings.
Denzil Minnan Wong is ahead in DVE with a narrow lead with the NDP in second and Michael Coteau a close third.
Shelley Carroll ain't likely to prevail in DVN.
Mike Colle is in the fight of his life in Eglinton-Lawrence. Not because the PCs are doing well (they're polling around the same level as last provincial), but because of a surging NDP.
Charles Sousa is poised for a big defeat in Mississauga-Lakeshore, PCs have a 20 point lead.
NDP and PCs are very close in Brampton North and West ridings.
Denzil Minnan Wong is ahead in DVE with a narrow lead with the NDP in second and Michael Coteau a close third.
Shelley Carroll ain't likely to prevail in DVN.
Mike Colle is in the fight of his life in Eglinton-Lawrence. Not because the PCs are doing well (they're polling around the same level as last provincial), but because of a surging NDP.
sixrings
Senior Member
I really like Mike but I am voting NDP. I don't know if anyone wants to talk me out of that.
Videodrome
Senior Member
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada...election-as-four-candidates-are-under-30.html
No chance this seat flips, but I like the youth movement.
No chance this seat flips, but I like the youth movement.
Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
Some unfortunate results there.
I want Shelley Carroll to win. She is a face that the Liberals could rally around post defeat.
Denzil Minnan Wong is likely to have a cabinet position in something like Municipal Affairs should the PC form government.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
I have no stake in that race in particular, but I think Colle will hang on. He does the "community rep" thing very well and it's a riding where Ford is a liability to the PCs.
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
Cool! Can I do this?
Should I stop working Fridays or is this one of those schemes whereby people with real money like to pretend they're poor so that others can carry their share of the burden?
I mean, I am so down for a four day work week!
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
FPTP voodoo maths! It's not depressing, it's "effective" and "fair" and "easy to understand" and "simple"!!
Why would you think that majority governments run on behalf of minorities is depressing? Minority rule is good times, my friend.
No one has time for compromise and power-sharing.
**This is obviously so sar-caustic that I just burnt a hole in a tooth. Hurry up with that dental care subsidy.**
PS: I like your method for divining election results. Looks interesting. This could be worth incorporating into my betting.
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
This sounds like such good times! Pass the gin.