2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[JGHali]

Sweden is a good deal smaller than Ontario population-wise. Just over 9 million.

We also live in North America next to a large market with low-cost consumer goods and light on big governments. Sweden is located in a large market of similar (high) expense structure conomies.

It's a little over 10 million. Smaller than Ontario, but how is that remotely the point here? Almost a quarter of the population has an immigrant background.

The US is not really that cheap (not so much so that the comparison matters) and has plenty of big government. They just spend it on different things sometimes.

Actually, this was the front-page headline in the Toronto Sun on Saturday after a candidate shared a Nazi theme meme. Not the first time I read this today. The meme is copied in the Sun and does feature Hitler making a Nazi salute.

It was a fairly lame meme. I would have been far more impressed if it had been a Downfall bunker mashup clip. Those were always far more entertaining. Or would that have been "anti-Semitic" too?

 

[adma]

"Choose life."

Naw, if you want 80s t-shirt slogans in Ontario elections...

https://www.gettyimages.ca/license/165004895

 

[SunriseChampion]

Naw, if you want 80s t-shirt slogans in Ontario elections...

https://www.gettyimages.ca/license/165004895

Yeah, I suppose "Choose life" does originate in the 80s War on Drugs idiocy, but I only ever use it in thinking of it in the context of Trainspotting.

 

[stanko]

I'm disappointed at the lack of mention of transit and other planning issues (i.e. the Greenbelt) in last night's debate

 

[W. K. Lis]

The winner by the signs of it. FOR SALE!

lol

 

[sixrings]

The winner by the signs of it. FOR SALE!

lol

Actually WK there were at least a couple PC people in here professing that they may move out of the province if Liberals won. I assume that means for sure they are going to move out if NDP win. And happily I can put off moving because the PCs didnt win. I would throw a party and invite OneCity over to celebrate but I cant afford the price of beer in this province and I live too many subway and bus transfers away from Scarberia.

 

[pman]

I won’t move out of the province if the Libs or (when) the NDP win, but I’ve been cutting my income with every federal and provincial tax increase. So I guess I’ll continue to do that. Apparently I have company, since the 2018 provincial budget shows personal income tax revenue down by $2.8 billion from 2017, while the economy actually grew by 2.7%. Of course, the presentation is opaque on what that down is actually from. Forecast? Actual? But whatever it is, collecting less PIT revenue while the economy grows is quite a trick. Continually hiking taxes on “the rich” would not appear to be an effective revenue raising strategy, however ideologically satisfying it may be. Of course, maybe the tax rates themselves are the goal...

http://budget.ontario.ca/2018/chapter-3c.html#s-0

 

[TrickyRicky]

One thing missing in productivity discussions in my suspicion is that the public policy and business policy measures miss the fundamental component of corporate and organizational size. Basically small businesses and individuals are likely intrinsically less productive than large corporations and organizations no matter what you do. Tweaking mandatory worker benefits, promoting innovation agendas etc. are all likely near irrelevant measures. It's also probably irrelevant if the society is "right or "left" wing whatever that means (both left and right governments are left or right on various issues). Furthermore, it's not just corporate size but corporate position. A large corporation in the absence of competition is not necessarily going to drive productivity or research and development, although it will still probably be better ironically than a bunch of "'innovative" start-ups.

So in short my theory is that pushing innovation agendas, government policy that supports workers and small businesses etc. probably has little impact on productivity even if they are desirable for society in other ways. Productivity is probably enhanced if you a) allow corporations and organizations to get as big as they can while b) making sure the market or regulatory environment etc. exist in is not a comfortable place to be in. This could actually be the case as much for government departments and public organizations as for those in the private sphere.

 

[christiesplits]

Great piece by geographer Sean Marshall from a few years back. It refutes what I had felt originally that the NDP couldn't topple Wynne in the rapidly-gentrifying new downtown ridings. He overlays the 'Orange Crush' 2011 federal results with the new 2015 federal/provincial boundaries.

Obviously, these are the federal results, but it shows that the NDP sweeping downtown is definitely possible, if not probable.

One key question is if there will be any blue on this map, as some Rosedale and Yorkville residents prefer a more 'gentile' brand of Conservatism than the type DoFo promotes. Even if the blue turns red the voter count is so low in those pockets it likely won't have a big impact.

https://seanmarshall.ca/2015/04/21/exploring-the-downtown-federal-races/

 

[syn]

I watched the debate - can't say I was impressed. Wynne definitely came out on top IMO - she's a much better speaker than Ford or Howarth.

She still seems the most qualified to lead the province.

Ford seemed rather weak, and I'm surprised he wasn't called out on more of his lies (saving the city $1.6 billion, etc.) and his party's issues with discrimination (Andrew Lawton).

Overall I don't think anything changed - Howarth still the momentum. I don't think Ford did much to change a lot of minds.

 

[JWBF]

"Oxymoronic"....don't need no stinkin' fancy stuff...just "moronic".

Sorry, you are right but you also have to take into account the opioid crisis.

 

[JasonParis]

CHCH...Hamilton. Steel poisoning...I refused to watch the panel after the CBC coverage since they were all party operatives. You knew who they thought had won it by their party tags.

They were all unfortunately middle-aged white men too.

I think momentum can be hard to measure in polling sometimes, so I'm increasingly thinking we'll be seeing an NDP government. It doesn't look like they can eek out a majority yet, but that could change quickly.

 

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet is going to be releasing 7 more riding polls today, include the other Don Valley seats and some in Brampton.

 

[steveintoronto]

It's also probably irrelevant if the society is "right or "left" wing whatever that means (both left and right governments are left or right on various issues). Furthermore, it's not just corporate size but corporate position. A large corporation in the absence of competition is not necessarily going to drive productivity or research and development, although it will still probably be better ironically than a bunch of "'innovative" start-ups.

Agreed on both points. "Picking winners" is the antithesis of what productivity is.

Sorry, you are right but you also have to take into account the opioid crisis

Oxy-counting...

Looks like Greens have their first probably win:

Greens lead in Guelph poll
NEWS May 25, 2018 by Graeme McNaughton Guelph Mercury
https://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/8630991-greens-lead-in-guelph-poll/

 

[MetroMan]

Ford has no seat, you can’t lose what you don’t have. We can certainly hope that Shafiq Qaadri keeps his riding - the only Liberal I’ll be rooting for.

"Loses his own seat" as in loses the race for the one he's running for.