2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[King of Kensington]

Just for fun.

LISPOP archived their predictions from the last federal election.

So the provincial update cited is May 13 this year or 25 days ahead of the actual election day.

Looking for a close approximation, this is their call 21 days ahead of the 2015 Federal result.

http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/federal/2015-09-29/conservatives-move-first-place.

They were just a bit off.......

Indeed. Polls are just a snapshot of opinion at a specific time, and it changes over the course of the campaign. You can see there that the shift among center-left voters from NDP to Liberal was just getting underway.

 

[jje1000]

Unsurprising, but interesting:

Both working-class and ‘elite’ voters favour Doug Ford in Ontario election, poll shows

Doug Ford’s folksy appeal to “the people” and disdain for “the elites” may be winning him support in the June 7 election, but a new poll shows there is no class war in Ontario.

Both working-class and so-called “elite” voters favour Ford’s Progressive Conservatives over Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals and Andrea Horwath’s NDP, according to the poll by New Square, a non-profit initiative focused on probing the views of Ontario’s working class and how they differ from elites.

Both listed government mismanagement and health care as the most important election issues, according to the online poll of 1,000 English-speaking Ontarians conducted between May 10 and May 14.

Housing, crime and jobs are the top three quality-of-life concerns for those living outside the Greater Toronto Area, where Ford and Horwath are ranked very close — at 16 per cent and 15 per cent respectively — among those with a preference, the poll shows. Wynne trails at 6 per cent.

But inside the GTA, where housing and transit are more important, Wynne is rated more favourably at 14 per cent, ranking second to Ford who leads with 18 per cent. Horwath runs third with 12 per cent in the GTA, the poll showed.

“What we found was where you are living is likely to affect you. If you live outside the GTA you are likely to vote differently,” Bastedo said. “If you are working class, you’re not necessarily going to vote differently. But if you are (economically) hurting in that group, you are.”

Almost 90 per cent of those polled are concerned about the province’s rising cost of living, with nearly six out of 10 feeling the squeeze when it comes to the price of gas, groceries and electricity. Three out of 10 say they are struggling with almost everything while about 15 per cent listed just one economic concern and where therefore deemed to be unaffected by cost-of-living increases.

Those who are feeling the squeeze and have a political preference favour Ford and Horwath, while those who are struggling are most likely to support Ford. People unaffected by the cost of living prefer Wynne, according to the poll.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...doug-ford-in-ontario-election-poll-shows.html

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

People unaffected by the cost of living prefer Wynne, according to the poll.

Probably the least surprising conclusion from a poll I've seen in this election.

 

[King of Kensington]

New Square defines a working-class person as having one of the following characteristics: a job that is physical; earning an hourly wage rather than a salary; an annual income of less than $35,000; unstable, part-time or precarious work; or dependent on government assistance, family or charity for support. Elites are defined as everyone else.

That's a very extensive defintion of "elites."

 

[BurlOak]

That's a very extensive defintion of "elites."

"dependent on government assistance"

Extensive definition of "working Class" too, since it included those not working.

 

[King of Kensington]

"dependent on government assistance"
So working class includes those not working.

Let me guess, you're one of those people who thinks a CEO is more deserving of the term "working class" than someone collecting unemployment benefits because "he works."

 

[W. K. Lis]

"dependent on government assistance"

Extensive definition of "working Class" too, since it included those not working.

From this link:

Free Dental Care

Good oral health is important for overall health. Yet, for some, regular dental care may not be affordable.

You may be eligible for free dental services in our Toronto Public Health clinics. We offer dental services to eligible children and youth (0-17 years), adults enrolled in selected Toronto Public Health programs, and seniors (65 years and older). For more information, please contact one of our clinics.

If you have private insurance, search for a dentist through the Royal College of Dental Surgeons of Ontario.

If you are not eligible for free services, and you do not have private insurance, you may qualify for dental care at a low-cost dental facility.

Since they already get "free dental care" (sort of), they'll likely vote for the current conditions of dental care with the PC's.

 

[steveintoronto]

^ I read that earlier, Star was headlining it at the time, just checked now, still up but way down the page. I didn't know what to make of it, it was odd and redundant with no clear sign of any kind of real information.

My guess? It wasn't there as a random occurrence. Someone somewhere paid for it. TorStar, desperate for cash, and their 'token of fairness' to Ford to justify the act of selling themselves, posted it on Vicky's Holiday in the hopes it would get buried.
"according to the poll by New Square, a non-profit initiative focused on probing the views of Ontario’s working class and how they differ from elites."

It truly ruffles me when media don't link the source of their articles, and so I went looking for "New Square". I got two hits, both this Star article.

Something stinks...Let me guess, unless someone can find a link or reference. This is a creation of a marketing firm. Getting back to the likes of Leger Marketing...

And beware! This is paid for, and the results going most likely straight to the marketing company behind this article. It ain't just Facebook, folks.

 

[adma]

Re Schreiner: a Star editorial endorsement.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edi...the-greens-mike-schreiner-to-queens-park.html

Doesn't make him any less of a by-the-way footnote relative to how this election is playing out--that is, unless Horwath gets a 2011-style single-seat "McGuinty minority" and requires a coalition partner without the stigma of the Libs...

 

[steveintoronto]

Re Schreiner: a Star editorial endorsement.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edi...the-greens-mike-schreiner-to-queens-park.html

Doesn't make him any less of a by-the-way footnote relative to how this election is playing out--that is, unless Horwath gets a 2011-style single-seat "McGuinty minority" and requires a coalition partner without the stigma of the Libs...

You were the one that posted the following results. There's a peculiar lack of consistency on your part:

Oh, and poll-time again.

For those hoping for a minority/coalition situation:
Innovative: 35 PC, 31 NDP, 27 Lib, 6 Green.

For the PC-landslide status quo:
Mainstreet (who else?): 42 PC, 29 NDP, 22 Lib, 5 Green.

So why are you posting poll results, which you yourself accept or deny on whim, and yet criticize others for posting "opinions"?

Sage is a Green best served cold...

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Look, in 2012/13, the Provincial government and City Council agreed that Fords transit plans (and Ford himself) must be killed at all costs.
Now we are paying those costs.
And ironically, we are sort of following through with Fords plans (or at least the intent), because we failed to agree and a simpler solution (that serves the demand) sooner.
And even more ironically, with Ford's drug implosion, he would have defeated himself anyway.

I don't see any of the three parties come out and say - then and now - we aren't subway champions.

AoD

 

[Videodrome]

So, I saw a Trillium party sign in my riding not far from our apartment.

 

[Admiral Beez]

That's a very extensive defintion of "elites."

Who is New Square, and why does their position on the class matter?

 

[steveintoronto]

Who is New Square, and why does their position on the class matter?

I was just thinking about that again, and from all I can tell, it's an obvious plant. These events are becoming legion:

^ I read that earlier, Star was headlining it at the time, just checked now, still up but way down the page. I didn't know what to make of it, it was odd and redundant with no clear sign of any kind of real information.

My guess? It wasn't there as a random occurrence. Someone somewhere paid for it. TorStar, desperate for cash, and their 'token of fairness' to Ford to justify the act of selling themselves, posted it on Vicky's Holiday in the hopes it would get buried.
"according to the poll by New Square, a non-profit initiative focused on probing the views of Ontario’s working class and how they differ from elites."

It truly ruffles me when media don't link the source of their articles, and so I went looking for "New Square". I got two hits, both this Star article.

Something stinks...Let me guess, unless someone can find a link or reference. This is a creation of a marketing firm. Getting back to the likes of Leger Marketing...

And beware! This is paid for, and the results going most likely straight to the marketing company behind this article. It ain't just Facebook, folks.

View attachment 144367

What I'll add to the above is that the 'on-line polls' are being mined. Cookies and other info are being gathered for analysis, and possible tracking and overlay with other info to find and target victims...err...potential subjects....for 'profiling' and resultant grooming.

 

[steveintoronto]

So, I saw a Trillium party sign in my riding not far from our apartment.

It's against the law to pick them!
View the Bill | Bill 184, Ontario Trillium Protection Act, 2009 | Bills ...
www.ontla.on.ca › Home › Bills & Lawmaking › Past & Present
39:1 Bill 184, Ontario Trillium Protection Act, 2009 ... Bill 184 2009 ... (1) No person shall pick, cut down, dig, pull up, injure or destroy, in whole or in part, whether in blossom or ... This Act comes into force on the day it receives Royal Assent.