2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[lenaitch]

Ontario gets taken to the cleaners in casino deal

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ontario-gets-taken-to-the-cleaners-in-casino-deal/

Also reminiscent of their sale of Ontera telecommunications. It was valued at $61M and they sold it to Bell Aliant for $6M plus spent over $6M on lawyers and consultants for the sale. Ever since, services have been cut back and customer costs have shot up.

 

[Hopkins123]

Another poll- we are hopefully headed for minority government territory. Bad timing for the PCs to have their dirty laundry aired at this point (though this is more the fault of the PC leadership for not cleaning house properly)- and Ontarians seem deadset for change (which is a good thing).

Entering the long weekend, the PC lead evaporates as NDP momentum builds.





http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds

Things only look bad for Doug if you are looking at a province wide poll. The PCs are actually ahead in 74 ridings by over 10% beyond the margin of error and there are still many TCTC ridings even beyond those 74 seats where vote-splits favour the Tories.

 

[steveintoronto]

Entering the long weekend, the PC lead evaporates as NDP momentum builds.
http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds

Just skimming throught that, looking more for trend and likelihoods, very glad you posted that, but what immediately jumped off the page for me was this:
If the data’s trend continues, almost as many people will have a negative view of Mr. Ford as they do of Ms. Wynne by the end of the campaign.

Not only will the trend continue, it will do so *geometrically* not arithmetically. The shit is only just starting to hit the fan, and all Ford can possibly say is: "jk8ygdvjh...errr...efficiencies...oi;jhtrjhbrajk...we'll look into that....ihbakbba...not like Kathleen nice smile...jtilejhds,fhgfjkbnbn etc, etc, etc...

 

[Northern Light]

Things only look bad for Doug if you are looking at a province wide poll. The PCs are actually ahead in 74 ridings by over 10% beyond the margin of error and there are still many TCTC ridings even beyond those 74 seats where vote-splits favour the Tories.

Where did you get that data?

Source please.

 

[Hopkins123]

Where did you get that data?

Source please.

Yes, I must be pulling these assertions out of my ass!

Haven't y'all been paying attention to scientific data as a source or just the anti-Ford media pushing a narrative that everybody hates the Tories and the NDP's surging?...

http://maps.lispop.ca/ontario_projections/

Everywhere outside of Northern/Hamilton-Niagara/Windsor/London is not Orange; Everywhere outside of Peel and the City of Toronto is more or less already decided.

 

[Northern Light]

Yes, I must be pulling these assertions out of my ass!

Haven't y'all been paying attention to scientific data as a source or just the anti-Ford media pushing a narrative that everybody hates the Tories and the NDP's surging?...

http://maps.lispop.ca/ontario_projections/

Everywhere outside of Northern/Hamilton-Niagara/Windsor/London is not Orange; Everywhere outside of Peel and the City of Toronto is more or less already decided.

First off don't be a @#$# head.

No one said you pulled numbers from thin air or any particular body part.

You will note that where others in this thread have made projections they have cited a poll, or the CBC polltracker or electionprediction.org or some other source.

Why should you be immune from the requirement to back up your claims? Pompousness and self-righteousness is not an obligatory exception to the rules of evidence in court or in debate.

****

Now that we've got that straight, its fine that you cite that model and interesting.

I went and read the disclosure on the methodology. Did you?

Did you note that the estimate is sometimes close, but often not and that it tends to overr-represent whomever it believes to be leading? It did so w/Liberals previously.

The guess is worthwhile and not uninformed.

I agree w/many of the calls based on what I know, so far.

But as someone who has access to riding polls I can say w/some confidence that there is divergence between what I consider the numbers and this model.

I (sadly) peg the PCs as leading in seat count...........but I'm a good deal lower than that model.

So are all the parties.

Who knows what will happen 3 weeks from now.

But I wouldn't cite the numbers I have access to as fact and you certainly shouldn't do so w/yours.

You also shouldn't fail to cite sources like a reflex.

Its good debating skill to back up your information.

Not that your previous posts indicate any love for facts.

***

One more thing, for clarity's sake.

This models results are a guess, not facts.

They may prove correct or may not.

But they are not facts.

Your inability to differentiate facts from guesses is deeply disturbing.

 

[steveintoronto]

All three are way off the deep end, but one down. I give her credit for owning up to this, she's getting expert advice. This is *exactly* what is needed to persevere, and hopefully the majority of voters see this as a sign of strength in character and believability. The other two 'stooges' are still out to lunch, albeit Wynne is pretty expert at maneuvering these issues.

Now for Dough Boy to fess up..."errr....flblledorp efficiency granpopoo imbalanced alleger Brown mess tomorrow big"...."I already explained it..."

Andrea Horwath admits NDP platform has $1.4-billion math ‘mistake’
By ROB FERGUSONQueen's Park Bureau
Sun., May 20, 2018
OTTAWA—Andrea Horwath has admitted to a $1.4-billion math “mistake” in her NDP platform that will increase the annual deficits her government would run if it is elected June 7.

Money was earmarked as a reserve fund to cover unexpected expenses or cash shortfalls but was booked as revenue instead of an expense, with a party official insisting that was appropriate because they don’t plan to spend it.

But Horwath, who on Friday said, “I don’t have specifics around the detail” and boasted the plan had been reviewed and approved by former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, reversed course Sunday.

“When the mistake was identified, we fixed it right away,” she said, insisting the party can keep its promises including dental care, pharmacare and improved daycare.

“It will mean our deficit will take a little longer to eradicate,” acknowledged Horwath, whose party has been on the upswing in public opinion polls and is running second to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.

Instead of $3.3 billion, the NDP now forecasts its deficit would grow to $4.7 billion in its first year because of the miscalculation in its platform document. [/quote]
https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ce-gouging-on-long-weekends-horwath-says.html

It'll be heck of lot bigger than that, but again, she stood up to correct the record, and it looks good on her. Now see those polls tip upward a little steeper, she's just proved herself human...

 

[EagleEye]

All three are way off the deep end, but one down. I give her credit for owning up to this, she's getting expert advice. This is *exactly* what is needed to persevere, and hopefully the majority of voters see this as a sign of strength in character and believability. The other two 'stooges' are still out to lunch, albeit Wynne is pretty expert at maneuvering these issues.

Now for Dough Boy to fess up..."errr....flblledorp efficiency granpopoo imbalanced alleger Brown mess tomorrow big"...."I already explained it..."

Andrea Horwath admits NDP platform has $1.4-billion math ‘mistake’
By ROB FERGUSONQueen's Park Bureau
Sun., May 20, 2018
OTTAWA—Andrea Horwath has admitted to a $1.4-billion math “mistake” in her NDP platform that will increase the annual deficits her government would run if it is elected June 7.

Money was earmarked as a reserve fund to cover unexpected expenses or cash shortfalls but was booked as revenue instead of an expense, with a party official insisting that was appropriate because they don’t plan to spend it.

But Horwath, who on Friday said, “I don’t have specifics around the detail” and boasted the plan had been reviewed and approved by former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, reversed course Sunday.

“When the mistake was identified, we fixed it right away,” she said, insisting the party can keep its promises including dental care, pharmacare and improved daycare.

“It will mean our deficit will take a little longer to eradicate,” acknowledged Horwath, whose party has been on the upswing in public opinion polls and is running second to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.

Instead of $3.3 billion, the NDP now forecasts its deficit would grow to $4.7 billion in its first year because of the miscalculation in its platform document.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ce-gouging-on-long-weekends-horwath-says.html

It'll be heck of lot bigger than that, but again, she stood up to correct the record, and it looks good on her. Now see those polls tip upward a little steeper, she's just proved herself human...[/QUOTE]

Ford never admits anything unless he's backed into a corner.

 

[steveintoronto]

Ford never admits anything unless he's backed into a corner.

Ha! You give him too much credit. Just leave it at "never". And "I just explained it, I'm not doing it again"

Edit to Add: I wrote prior how I tried to watch her interview on the Agenda, and could only stand half of it, and gave up in disgust. It was her being in la-la-land on costing. This is the first indication of any of the Three Stooges climbing down from their 'cockpits' to get their feet on solid ground.

This is the first sign of Horwath moving forward on a more solid footing rather than just being "Not those two". Again, she's getting excellent advice from her team on this. She could actually win-over a curmudgeon like me if I had the vote in this jurisdiction. My opinion doesn't count at the ballot box, but that of many like me does.

This might be cathartic...

Post Edit to Add: A wild projection if she does get what I expect as an uptick in poll results from the 'Correction':

She sees enough of an uptick to allow her to 'flip-flop' on the SSE. There's no real value to touting it anyway, and her team will know this. She will get *far more mileage* out of standing tall, admitting she was forced by circumstance to make the SSE support claim prior, but on re-examination of the *facts*....every independent expert is against the SSE, and she agrees.

Who does that play to, besides Transit Followers (who, you'll note, are never included in the on-line polling categories for the 'most important issues'...duh!). It plays to the *Rest of Ontario*!

Toronto the Entitled doesn't get their whizz-bang toy train to nowhere for $5B+ and counting....But in it's place, regional rail becomes the altar. Just ask Jessica Bell!

Then watch the poll results climb further again...Horwath, once turned on the SSE, has massive amounts of ammunition to sink both of the others on the Transit issue alone.

 

[Videodrome]

Karen Howlett
@kahowlett

Ontario elections watchdog reviewing PC candidate campaigns

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...ns-watchdog-reviewing-pc-candidate-campaigns/

 

[TransitBart]

Thank goodness for an (impartial) professional civil service.

 

[christiesplits]

The NDP can’t hit Rae-level seat levels unless they hit 50%+

Seat redistributions since 1990 have made the 905 a must win. Outside of Oshawa and some of Brampton, the 905 burbs are a Dipper dead zone.

 

[steveintoronto]

Seat redistributions since 1990 have made the 905 a must win.

So how is touting a $5B+ one stop subway to STC going to impress the 905?

Regional Rail will and does. Spend that $5B+ by all means, but not on a freakin' tunnel to nowhere as every expert has pointed out as folly.

You exactly make my point. Expand rail transit to the 905, and that means RER, and in the next five years, not twenty.

Nothing engenders disgust and loathing of "Entitled Toronto" more than "Subways, Subways, Subways". That means money for Toronto that should be spread far more equitably in the regions, and vastly mores sensibly.

Horwath has that opportunity. Jessica Bell has already expounded it before running for the NDP.

Metrolinx needs an overhaul, not just an auditor general probe
By JESSICA BELL
Wed., Oct. 4, 2017
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/com...erhaul-not-just-an-auditor-general-probe.html

I think Horwath should take the points under advisement along with ones reaching even further out into the 905 and 519/705.

Edit to Add: And btw, the co-author of the piece above? Here's his org:
Scarborough Transit Action – LRT NETWORK NOW

Example:
Vincent Puhakka published We surveyed riders at Lawrence East SRT station and (surprise, surprise) they don’t want the subway

 

[Hopkins123]

The NDP can’t hit Rae-level seat levels unless they hit 50%+

Seat redistributions since 1990 have made the 905 a must win. Outside of Oshawa and some of Brampton, the 905 burbs are a Dipper dead zone.

I've been saying this exact thing and yet the forum criticizes me. The NDP are only competitive in the City of Toronto, and even there they're kind of a non-factor in Etobicoke and most of Scarborough.

Where is this so-called surge coming from that'll translate into actual electoral seat gains for their party? I just don't see it happening for them.

 

[adma]

Yes, I must be pulling these assertions out of my ass!

Haven't y'all been paying attention to scientific data as a source or just the anti-Ford media pushing a narrative that everybody hates the Tories and the NDP's surging?...

http://maps.lispop.ca/ontario_projections/

Everywhere outside of Northern/Hamilton-Niagara/Windsor/London is not Orange; Everywhere outside of Peel and the City of Toronto is more or less already decided.

I'm not taking a pro- or anti-Ford stance in saying this, but chiding us, as political geeks, for not respecting the "scientific data" of projection sites is like chiding us, as old-school road-travel geeks, for not being harnessed to the "navigational data" of talking GPS. Maybe, just as London taxi drivers legendarily have "The Knowledge", many of us may have (or allow for) something similar relative to electoral politics. And as such, we don't need to harness ourselves unilaterally to such crutches...