Videodrome
Senior Member
How is the debate so far?
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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion
- Thread starter MetroMan
- Start date
animatronic
Senior Member
Dumpster fire, apparently.
Videodrome
Senior Member
Doug doesn't have the natural confidence of Trump, so that is one thing they don't share.
The CityNews Twitter poll shows Horwath picked up support during the debate based on a “who would you vote for” question pre and post debate.
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syn
Senior Member
Can't disagree with that. Ford is a terrible debater, at least relative to Howarth and Wynne.
His responses were exactly what I expected of him.
adma
Superstar
Or for that matter, the natural "confidence" (or at least aw-shucksness) of his brother.
Worth noting that 35% is about as low as we've seen the Ford-led PC share go. Something must be sticking.
steveintoronto
Superstar
Predictable. The Moron is a moron, and proves it, and idiots clap. If Ontarians elect him, then Dixie wins.
Northern Light
Superstar
I'm going to endeavor to be even-handed and note that while I didn't buy the polls when they had the PCs well over 40 or the seat totals when some said 90, and while I'm most certainly no Ford enthusiast and want to be pleased at any declining fortune on his part........its still a poll (or a pair of them) or (three of them counting City's)..........
And even those don't have government out of his reach.
So no hopes, false or otherwise as yet.
Some evidence of a decline in his popularity, an overdue good start.........
But the key poll really is election day, may the trend line continue unabated.
it wasn’t a scientific poll, it was a Twitter poll, but it was interesting that there was a shift based on the debate. Whether that translates to actual voting, who knows. Is it a trend that will continue, i.e., Doug’s poor debating skills losing him votes? We shall see!
TransitBart
Senior Member
This is a quote from this woman. "What about these trumped up smears against me?"
Didn't the words that got her dumped fall out of her own mouth? Just sayin...
Like @PinkLucy says, I am gobsmacked. You can say shit on video and not even be responsible for it any longer.
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TransitBart
Senior Member
In all of the press about Doug, high-school debating club was never mentioned.
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adma
Superstar
According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...
JGHali
Active Member
Ford won the debate about as well as Nenshi lost the Calgary election. Mainstreet is awful.
Northern Light
Superstar
Mainstreet has been discussed before.
For the hell of it, I went and looked at their stated methodology and details.
Some notes.
Poll was IVR, it was of City of Toronto residents only, with a solid sample size of 2,000
There were 4 geographical subsets, roughly, the old City of Toronto (downtown in Mainstreet parlance) along with Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York.
The subset data indicates the NDP in a very strong position in the old City, while the Conservatives have the inner burbs in a run-away.
Overall margin of error 2.9%, but varied in the 4-5% range for the geo sub-sets.
IF one took that data at face value, it wouldn't skew things much as they show the Cons up by 12 or so in Scarb/NY and even more in Etobicoke.
They show undecideds at 8%, the top line numbers are leaning and decided and so exclude that group.
I have real issues w/Mainstreet as a pollster, that said, if they asked the questions the way they said, its not a bad sample size.
But, I have some real questions of 'weighting'. The published results are weighted for gender, age and region.
For instance, it appears as though they used the census numbers for weighting.
Though Elections Canada suggests that both age and gender show variable turnout rates.
Methodology language from Mainstreet:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 7th at the
conclusion of the rst provincial leaders’ debate among a sample of 2000 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews on landlines and cellular phones.
The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto.The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources. The survey was conducted as a stratied dial of
the following regions: Downtown Toronto (collloquially known as the old City of Toronto), Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough. Respondents were dialed at random. The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.19% at the 95% condence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample. The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.37%, Females: +/- 2.88%, 18-34 age group: +/- 7.49%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.92%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.94%, 65+ age group: +/- 3.2%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 4.21%, Etobicoke: +/- 5.32%, North York: +/- 4.31%, Scarborough: +/- 3.99%.In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the ndings of
opinion polls
Elections Canada Turnout rates:
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/eval/pes2015/vtsa&document=table2&lang=e
John_Dee
Active Member
Quite apart from the blatant lie in that little statement, note that Ford has the gall to say such a thing to the woman who's currently in charge of the provincial government. It's obviously up for debate as to how well she's doing her job, but she's still the #@%$ Premiere, for Chrissakes.
For that matter, how well did he do his job when he "helped run a government?" I seem to recall him treating the position like it was a part time job. More than that, actually: He acted like it was a part time job in a business owned by his family, in which attendance was purely voluntary.