2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[PinkLucy]

And how much does Doug make in a year? Could he support his wife and daughters’ shopping habits on less than $100,000? Yes I know he owns a private business but if he thinks those wages are too high, he should look in the mirror and atop squawking about the elites.

 

[steveintoronto]

Here's one of Ford's answers:

"Yeah, no, I understand that, I was going back to the 2003 or something. This is an example. You have to take inflation into consideration. It goes back to these backroom deals and these secret deals that the taxpayers don't even know that there's endless millionaires on Hydro One. That's the point. It's not the people that are making $100,000. It's the people that are making millions of dollars giving themselves $400,000 raises and not telling and being transparent that there's a whack of millionaires and the government doesn't want anyone to know."

Translation:
"If we can't eat our pudding, who pays for the steak, unless they earn too much, and we pay for the parking, except Sundays, if you believe?
That's what my Dad taught me, and he learned me good."

Kathleen's shaking in her booties...not.

 

[Jasmine18]

Issue is Ontario elections are boring as hell and have very low turnouts and the liberals win majorities.

This time there seems to be a huge media focus and the Tory leader is a well known person for the positive or negative.

I think turnout will be up and I think that spells bad news for Wynne.

 

[Northern Light]

Well, here we might have thought today's only pre-budget announcement/planned leak was GO related.

But no; while that announcement is still to come today, we get the Premier pre-announcing new money for Special Education this morning.

https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2018/03/driving-student-success-with-more-supportive-classrooms.html

Basically 100M per year for a combination of new Educational Assistants, Teachers, Behavior Therapists, Speech Pathologists and other specialists.

About 2,000 hires in total.

 

[Northern Light]

So, the other 'announcement' of the day turned out to be a complete non-event worthy of former Minister of Transportation, Del Duca.

http://news.ontario.ca/mto/en/2018/...urce=ondemand&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=m

 

[King of Kensington]

Looking at how things are going so far, I'm wondering if the Liberals going to be Martined, Dioned or Ignatieffed?

 

[narduch]

Looking at how things are going so far, I'm wondering if the Liberals going to be Martined, Dioned or Ignatieffed?

Or Kim Campbelled?

 

[King of Kensington]

My assessment of TO ridings at the moment in terms of PC potential.

Most likely PC pickups:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough-Agincourt

Very much in play:

Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
York Centre

Less likely:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Humber River-Black Creek
Willowdale
York South-Weston

Probably not:

Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence

Definitely not:

Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Spadina-Fort York
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
University-Rosedale

 

[King of Kensington]

I count Scarborough North as PC "incumbency."

 

[christiesplits]

My assessment of TO ridings at the moment in terms of PC potential.

Most likely PC pickups:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough-Agincourt

Very much in play:

Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
York Centre

Less likely:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Humber River-Black Creek
Willowdale
York South-Weston

Probably not:

Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence

Definitely not:

Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Spadina-Fort York
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
University-Rosedale

I agree with most of this. What will be interesting to see is if ridings with historically low PC votes but high Ford Nation Vote in 2010/2014 can go to the PCs in June. For instance, Humber River-Black Creek/York West, York South Weston and Scarborough Southwest. Coincidentally, all three of the aforementioned could be three-way races.

 

[animatronic]

I’m watching E-L as a bellwether. If it leans PC it could presage a blue wave. If it holds on there is hope for the Libs.

 

[King of Kensington]

I agree with most of this. What will be interesting to see is if ridings with historically low PC votes but high Ford Nation Vote in 2010/2014 can go to the PCs in June. For instance, Humber River-Black Creek/York West, York South Weston and Scarborough Southwest. Coincidentally, all three of the aforementioned could be three-way races.

Seats like York South-Weston would be on the "hell no" list if Ford weren't leading the PCs, while most of Scarborough would be "less likely" or "probably not."

Conversely, a seat like Eglinton-Lawrence would be higher up the list.

 

[King of Kensington]

I’m watching E-L as a bellwether. If it leans PC it could presage a blue wave. If it holds on there is hope for the Libs.

Which "E-L"? I'm assuming Lakeshore.

 

[Hopkins123]

My assessment of TO ridings at the moment in terms of PC potential.

Most likely PC pickups:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough-Agincourt

Very much in play:

Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
York Centre

Less likely:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Humber River-Black Creek
Willowdale
York South-Weston

Probably not:

Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence

Definitely not:

Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Spadina-Fort York
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
University-Rosedale

Isn't Etobicoke-Lakeshore more of a certainty for the PCs to pick up than Scarborough Southwest, which is the most left leaning of the Scarborough ridings?

 

[King of Kensington]

Isn't Etobicoke-Lakeshore more of a certainty for the PCs to pick up than Scarborough Southwest, which is the most left leaning of the Scarborough ridings?

Maybe. But Etobicoke-Lakeshore has a larger professional class demographic though and Ford underperforms among that group. The NDP is a non-factor there as well, so the Liberals have the progressive and anti-Ford vote more or less to themselves. SSW in contrast could see a three-way race where the PCs come up the middle.

It's hard to know how to weight the impact of Ford's municipal vote vs. traditional partisan loyalites.