2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[Northern Light]

From the poll noted above, the other ward results: (Decided and Leaning)

Humber River-Black Creek

Perruzza has 30.2%
Mammoliti 21.1%
Tiffany Ford 21.1%
Deanna Sgro has 17.2%.

Margin of Error: 4.59%

Scarborough-Agincourt,

Jim Karygiannis 47.3%
Norm Kelly 44%.

Margin of Error: 3.9%

York-South-Weston

Frances Nunziata 40.4%
Frank Di Giorgio 30.2%
Lekan Olawoye has 7.2%
Chiara Padovani has 3.8%.

Margin of Error: 4,01%

Toronto Centre

Kristyn Wong-Tam leads 44%
George Smitherman 27.7%
Lucy Troisi has 7.7%
Walied Khogali has 3.5%.

Margin of Error: 4.1%

Beaches-East York,
Matthew Kellway 56.3%
Diane Dyson 7.4%
David Del Grande 7.5%.

Margins of Error: 3.94%

Full Poll methodology here:

https://www.scribd.com/document/389640124/Mainstreet-Toronto-28sept2018#from_embed

 

[Northern Light]

Three leads I'm happy to see: Perruzza, Kellway and and Tam

The other two races are sets of bad choices, I'm not sure I have a favourite.

 

[Richard White]

Scarborough-Agincourt,

Jim Karygiannis 47.3%
Norm Kelly 44%.

I am hoping Jim Karygiannis wins. He is a bit of a blowhard at times but Norm Kelly has become a tad senile in his old age IMHO.

Ever since the whole twitter thing years ago he has been more concerned with selling himself and his brand than actually doing his job at City Hall.

 

[Kevin Hegarty]

Is anyone surprised by how poorly Chiara Padovoni is doing ?. I know she has a lot of support and has been canvassing a long time ?. I would love to see Lekan win there but Nunziata seems insurmountable at this stage

 

[Richard White]

Is anyone surprised by how poorly Chiara Padovoni is doing ?. I know she has a lot of support and has been canvassing a long time ?. I would love to see Lekan win there but Nunziata seems insurmountable at this stage

Who is Chiara Padovoni and Lekan?

You can see why I am not surprised they are doing so poorly. In Ward 20 we have people running that have never run before and have no recognition along with limited English. That being said, they stand zero chance of winning because nobody knows who they are.

Name recognition is everything. If nobody knows who you are or what you stand for you are screwed if an incumbent is there.

Take Dan Harris for example. For years he ran (unsuccessfully) for the provincial and federal NDP with a run against Adrian Heaps in Ward 35. Had he not run in multiple elections, he likely would not have been known well enough to win in 2011 when the incumbent Michelle Simson pretty much gave up.

 

[christiesplits]

Take Dan Harris for example. For years he ran (unsuccessfully) for the provincial and federal NDP with a run against Adrian Heaps in Ward 35. Had he not run in multiple elections, he likely would not have been known well enough to win in 2011 when the incumbent Michelle Simson pretty much gave up.

Pretty sure Dan Harris won in 2011 because of the Orange wave and a three-way race in SSW.

Is anyone surprised by how poorly Chiara Padovoni is doing ?. I know she has a lot of support and has been canvassing a long time ?. I would love to see Lekan win there but Nunziata seems insurmountable at this stage

Local York South Weston NDPers and progressive Liberals hitched their wagon to Padovani instead of Olawoye, which I think was a bad move. Olawoye had a decent showing in 2014 and likely has more name recognition in 2018

 

[King of Kensington]

Overall, the Mainstreet poll is discouraging. Mammoliti may get knocked off but overall it's an uphill battle to change the balance of council.

 

[Kevin Hegarty]

Pretty sure Dan Harris won in 2011 because of the Orange wave and a three-way race in SSW.




Local York South Weston NDPers and progressive Liberals hitched their wagon to Padovani instead of Olawoye, which I think was a bad move. Olawoye had a decent showing in 2014 and likely has more name recognition in 2018

Ya that made no sense to me. I had remembered that Lekan had pushed Di Giorgio very close last time. He is a proven name in that area so why abandon him. I like Chiara too buts its clear she doesnt seem to be resonating at all.

 

[King of Kensington]

Giorgio Mammoliti‏@mammolitiward7

Giorgio Mammoliti Retweeted David Rider

Main Street who? Oh , you mean the lefty, not known polling company? I have seen three polls as of yesterday and they all have me winning. Either Main Street is wrong or they are just trying to sway vote through the lefty star newspaper. They will try anything!!!!

9:42 AM - 28 Sep 2018

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Yeah okay Mammo...

Kind of hoping for Di Giorgio over Nunziata but I guess the Nunziata name in Former York is very strong.

Kelly vs Karygiannis is such a coin toss. If Karygiannis loses, his political career is likely over unless he decides to flip parties and run under a conservative banner. Kelly is not that useful, but not directly harmful. I just see him as an extra Tory vote.

==============

Reporting what I am seeing in terms of lawn sign game. I am in the area that was formerly Josh Matlow's ward, and is now pushed to Don Valley West where incumbents Jaye Robinson and Jon Burnside are facing off with each other.

I can attest a 70-30% split in Burnside's advantage in terms of lawn sign game. Perhaps this makes sense, because Burnside's base is Leaside, which is right next door to North Toronto.

I wonder how the lawn sign game is like in Lawrence Park, which is Jaye Robinson's base.

 

[Avenue]

Nunziata name

I Googled and there's some serious Ginger Spice vibe going on.

 

[christiesplits]

In Toronto-Danforth, to no surprise, it's a sea of Fletcher signs south of Danforth, and a sea of Fragedakis signs north of Danforth, reflecting their old ward boundaries. However, there seems to be a tad more Fletcher spillover in Fragedakis's turf than vice versa. No indication of any Lanrick Bennett signs, who initially seemed to have some momentum.

 

[Northern Light]

Giorgio Mammoliti‏@mammolitiward7

Giorgio Mammoliti Retweeted David Rider

Main Street who? Oh , you mean the lefty, not known polling company? I have seen three polls as of yesterday and they all have me winning. Either Main Street is wrong or they are just trying to sway vote through the lefty star newspaper. They will try anything!!!!

9:42 AM - 28 Sep 2018

Well now, that's a first, I don't think anyone has ever accused 'Main Street' of a lefty bias.

The other way round yes, or sometimes just plain sloppy.

 

[Videodrome]

NEWSTALK1010 @NEWSTALK1010
6h
Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti has included “Doug Ford’s choice” on his election pamphlets. Ford says he’s only actively endorsing Michael Ford, his nephew. He finds it comical Mammoliti is using the slogan saying “That’s Giorgio. What can I say?” #ONpoli #TOpoli

Wow, Mammo is even on Doug's bad side now!

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Considering that Druggie and Mammo spent most of their time in council actively arguing with each other, I don't actually imagine there being much love lost between the two. At least from Thug's POV.