2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[toaster29]

Can I ask a stupid question... how would a smaller council help the suburban areas more than the downtown areas. It sure looks like all the suburban councilors are not happy with the ruling while the downtown ones are happy. Is it because then they would have more votes towards things such as suburban subways?

It does not. In fact the west end of Toronto is hurt the most by the reduction, in terms of voter parity. The largest wards in the city become the three Etobicoke ridings and York South Weston.

Downtown provincial ridings have more population than outer ridings, and as more condos get built the disparity will become worse.

It's not gerrymandering in the traditional sense, but with Scarborough and Etobicoke being more conservative-friendly this does give the outer regions more relative power.

Not the case using the last census data - The four largest Wards (ridings) based on population are:

Etobicoke - North
York South Weston
Etobicoke - Lakeshore
Etobicoke Centre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canadian_federal_ridings

 

[pman]

It may also cost him his leadership at the expense of destroying the party.

Like Miscreant, I’m skeptical. If anything, I suspect invoking the Notwithstanding Clause will be popular among the Conservative base. They’ve been railing against judicial activism for years. The people who will be outraged by this are unlikely to be Conservative voters anyway. And for the rest of Ontario outside the Tory base and the bien-pensants? While the proper limit, if any, to unelected judicial fiat is an increasingly important issue for Canada, I can’t see the vast majority of Ontarians getting too worked up about this.

 

[nfitz]

The Liberals have already damaged this province - you guys are unreal - the stuff McGuinty got away with and was never charged is insane

You can't seriously compare a strong moral leader like McGuinty, with an anti-gay bigot, corrupt councillor, former drug dealer, and pathological liar like Doug Ford.

This is someone who morals are so low, that he fully backed Rob Ford, who admitted to racism, massive drug abuse while Mayor, and trading his wife's sexual services for ... gosh, not even sur for what.

Even the right-wing media made fun of Rob Ford's offers of sex with his wife:



McGuinty, at the first whiff of wrong doing, did the right thing and resigned. I don't think Doug Ford has that ability.

Proposing to suspend basic human rights, to make a minor change to the number of city councillors in Toronto is laughable. It makes a fool of every PC MPP, and anyone deluded enough to vote for dirt like Doug Ford.

 

[syn]

The Liberals have already damaged this province - you guys are unreal - the stuff McGuinty got away with and was never charged is insane

How so?

When is the last time the Liberals used the NWSC to get their way?

 

[JGHali]

yes it is - but it is generally understood in parliamentary convention that the LG is to be a figurehead only. She may have that constitutional power, but convention generally says that it is to be used in only the most extreme of situations. A premier invoking the notwithstanding clause completely legally isn't the sort of thing the LG is supposed to prevent.

No, disallowance is a federal power, as it also once was a power of the UK Parliament over its Dominions. Of course an LG can independently reserve legislation as well or be instructed to do so. It was previously almost a convention that the NWC not be used, and it only ever has been under the most brazen circumstances (e.g. Quebec's language laws). The LG's reserve powers include the protection against the arbitrary rule of a dangerous ignorant asshole like Doug Ford who is, quite simply, unfit for office.

R&D is dead letter, and even then it's not an effective check. The province can just keep passing the same legislation until the LG gives up blocking it.

Disallowance is a power of the federal cabinet.

 

[ErieHall]

It does not. In fact the west end of Toronto is hurt the most by the reduction, in terms of voter parity. The largest wards in the city become the three Etobicoke ridings and York South Weston.



Not the case using the last census data - The four largest Wards (ridings) based on population are:

Etobicoke - North
York South Weston
Etobicoke - Lakeshore
Etobicoke Centre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canadian_federal_ridings

That Wikipedia page cites this webpage from Elections Canada. The page from Elections Canada uses population figures from the 2011 census and I can know this because the figures are the same as they were in 2015. The latest census was done in 2016.

 

[innsertnamehere]

essentially the difference is that the 25 ward model is based off of 2011 census data, while the 47 ward model is based off of 2016 data. They were both relatively fair with minor differences in their time, but the 25 ward model is 5 years "older", meaning that high growth areas have had an additional 5 years to become disproportionately overpopulated.

Remember that the existing ward boundaries were equally fair when implemented in 1998 - over 20 years population changes made them very disproportionate, to downtown's disadvantage. By selecting the 25 ward model, you get a 5 year head start on that disproportionate mis-representation.

 

[toaster29]

That Wikipedia page cites this webpage from Elections Canada. The page from Elections Canada uses population figures from the 2011 census and I can know this because the figures are the same as they were in 2015. The latest census was done in 2016.

To my knowledge these lists are not yet available using the 2016 numbers.

Regardless, even using the city's projected numbers, the consultants for the Draw the Lines 2018 Ward Redistribution said they would not consider the Provincial riding boundaries precisely because "[t]his arrangement still raises some concerns with voter parity between two potential wards in Etobicoke. Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore have a 2026 population variance of +22% and +21% respectively. However, attempting to resolve this situation would require altering the boundaries of several federal ridings and crossing the Humber River, a major natural and historic current ward boundary. This contradicts the purpose of making federal riding boundaries and ward boundaries consistent."

 

[ErieHall]

Something that I haven't seen talked about is that the federal riding boundaries don't have to align with Toronto's municipal boundaries. It's entirely possible a federal riding is drawn that is only partly in Toronto. What then?

 

[DSC]

Something that I haven't seen talked about is that the federal riding boundaries don't have to align with Toronto's municipal boundaries. It's entirely possible a federal riding is drawn that is only partly in Toronto. What then?

When we were at the 25 Ward map the City site said that certain parts of the "Toronto Federal Boundaries" had been excluded as they are outside Toronto so it appears to be the case already. Not sure what these areas are but they do seem to exist

 

[King of Kensington]

Ford says he'll allow a "free vote," but I doubt any PC MPPs are going to be doing and lose their nomination for the next election.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Supposedly it's going to be a 'free vote.' Will there be 12 of 76 PC party minions willing to vote against their party?

Or abstain because of a "rare illness", "problems at home", "prior appointments", etc..

 

[King of Kensington]

In case you were hoping Caroline Mulroney would be a voice of reason:

https://twitter.com/C_Mulroney/status/1039262058506846208

 

[Towered]

So...what other options are there to fight this?

 

[adma]

When we were at the 25 Ward map the City site said that certain parts of the "Toronto Federal Boundaries" had been excluded as they are outside Toronto so it appears to be the case already. Not sure what these areas are but they do seem to exist

There was one "overlapping" seat in the previous distribution (Pickering-Scarborough East). Now all Toronto ridings are contained within Toronto.