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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

ttk77 said:
Sounds like there might be some internal power struggles going on in the party. I think if the PCs want to be taken seriously in the long term they're going to need to need to stop trying to court the social conservative vote. It's a base that's getting smaller and smaller as time goes on.
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At the same time they are hard pressed not to - the centre is crowded, and they can't make a convincing case for it without alienating the base.

AoD
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
At the same time they are hard pressed not to - the centre is crowded, and they can't make a convincing case for it without alienating the base.

AoD
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I'd hazard a guess though that there are tens of thousands (if not more) of upset normally Liberal voters right now that would love to jump ship to the PCs if they took a more socially progressive stance. And as for the socially conservative crowd, who else are they going to vote for? I suppose there are some fringe parties that might suit them, but none that would give them the clout that they want in the legislature.
 
ttk77 said:
I'd hazard a guess though that there are tens of thousands (if not more) of upset normally Liberal voters right now that would love to jump ship to the PCs if they took a more socially progressive stance. And as for the socially conservative crowd, who else are they going to vote for? I suppose there are some fringe parties that might suit them, but none that would give them the clout that they want in the legislature.
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they might not vote at all...which would concerning to the PC party.....I have no idea on the numbers but I bet they are constantly having this conversation internally (or one like it) "are those tens of thousands of converts ttk77 tells you about worth winning if we lose hundreds of thousands of people who normally would vote for us".
 
And that may very well be the case, but their strategy has not exactly worked well for them so far. The last three elections were theirs to lose, and they managed to lose all three, with their social conservative leanings being one of the reasons the red Tories stayed with the Liberals.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
At the same time they are hard pressed not to - the centre is crowded, and they can't make a convincing case for it without alienating the base.

AoD
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The centre is barren.

The Liberals and NDP moved far Left, while the PCs are right of centre.

For those on the left, nothing matters but this guy wining. That's why just right I centre Chretien and Martin can win and so can far Left Trudeau and Wynne. The US is the same. Clinton is centre and Sanders far left. Trump is much closer to Clinton than Bernie
 
It all makes me wonder if Cho is more of a "false flag" a la all those NDP byelection winners in the previous term...
 
I don't think it's that big a problem. The usual suspects are having hissy fits, but the reality is that they need the PCs more than the PCs need them. There can only be huge of frustration among the fringe social-conservative movement, having been shunned by the federal Conservatives for so long, and only to encounter an issue which they think they can win (sex-ed curriculum) only to see the provincial PCs distance themselves too. Looks good on them.

Not a coincidence that Joe Warmington is writing this nonsense stuff.

ETA: For people who seem aghast at any discussion of sex, the so-cons seem to be getting publicly screwed a lot.
 
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This is largely my view as well. If not zero, then sufficiently few to make no discernible difference.

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ttk77 said:
There's definitely some tensions developing between Brown and the social conservatives. Now if only we could know whether this is political opportunism on his part or if he's actually changed his views.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ng-himself-from-social-conservative-base.html
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Changed his views after he had been exposed? That's not how changing one's views sincerely works.

Videodrome said:
True, who else can they vote for?

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ng-himself-from-social-conservative-base.html
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No one? It can de-energize the base and they may stay home.

AoD
 
Wynne still has more than a year to avoid a Bob Rae-like third party humiliation, and the PCs are no strangers to peaking too early.

Still, you have to wonder if there are rumblings in the LPO to oust Wynne.
 
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AlvinofDiaspar said:
No one? It can de-energize the base and they may stay home.
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Agreed. But important to note that this isn't the base, but rather part of the base. A part that is more offended by the school curriculum, say, acknowledging that gays exist, than they are by, say, hydro rates (or any number of other PC bread-and-butter issues). I'm guessing that Brown is taking a calculated risk, and probably a correct one, that most of the base has bigger fish to fry.

How many ridings will the PCs fail to take if this so-con segment of the base stays home? Probably none. They might stay home, but they will hardly go out and vote for Wynne (a Lesbian!) or the NDP (socialists!). And Patrick Brown hopes to more than make up for the loss of any so-cons by winning over less ideological voters who are looking for an alternative to the Liberals.

Personally, I don't think Brown is taking much of a risk here. He probably could have lived without the various leaks, but I think once the brou-ha-ha has settled down, he'll be stronger for it. He clearly learned a lot from Harper while in Ottawa.
 
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