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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

We're heading toward one big circular firing squad.
um... no

while your scenario is not totally unlikely (in fact, scarily possible), there will only be one person to blame --

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Given that this poll is from Forum, I treating it as suspect. The breathless reportage about how this the first time Tory has been leading with more than a six-point lead. That got a little nauseating. Reading Forum's own press release on the poll, why does the company think it necessary to add a colour quote from Lorne Bozinoff? The figures stand up or fall down on their own. We don't need the company telling us what it *really* means. Either he's right and redundant, or he's wrong and detracting from the numbers.
 
Though if there's a consolation to John Tory rising, it's that it could well potentially dig into some of the remaining smart/sane "he may be an awful human being, but at least he isn't Chow" Ford support. John Tory as a solid "free enterprise coalition" standard-bearer, a bankable sensible moderate a la Jim Watson in Ottawa...
 
It's really unbelievable how badly Chow is doing. She should have the whole "center left" to herself as there is no "Kathleen Wynne" in the race. This is a city that rejects Conservatives and she's losing to two Conservatives. What an uninspiring campaign!
 
I don't really buy this poll. As usual with Forum. The shifts are far too substantial for what has been a pretty quiet and uneventful part of the campaign. It's always important to remember that polls provide only an estimate of support, and that the reported "margins of error" underestimate error and do not account for sampling or non-response bias. I'm not really sure what kind of sampling weights Forum uses either, but it's key to notice how certain strata are extremely unrepresented.

Otherwise, not much has happened in the campaign at all for weeks and weeks. Anecdotally, though, stuff like Tory's comments on Eglinton Connects has not done him any favours, and - if I'm not exactly predisposed to him in the first place - it is fairly obvious that his "Smarttrack" idea is both a massive flipflop and simply a map-on-a-napkin variation on the province's existing electrification plan.

I do think Chow would do herself a favour to come out with a short list of bold policies - a "vision" if you will - but I don't know whether they haven't thought of that or are simply waiting til at least next month when people might be paying more attention.

As for Soknacki, I appreciate the Nenshi comparisons being thrown around, but he would have done better to run for council again and re-establish a stronger profile prior to a mayoral run.

(And time for Stintz to drop out one way or another.)
 
And I was getting hate on here earlier for saying Chow would slip. Well, I told you so.

Not that I am particularly happy with this, as I can't support Tory's position on Eglinton Connects and think SmartTracks is a horrible transit plan.

I don't get why everyone is so against Forum polls, they showed consistently to be the most accurate of the polls in the provincial election. If anything, I'd feel more suspect over non-Forum polls.
 
The Tory bump has been shown in several polls now, all from different polling companies. It's real, though it might not be as substantial as this poll makes it look.
 
Well, there goes the possibility of voting Soknacki for me.

Chow it is. Got to keep Tory out as well as Ford, otherwise we will make minimal progress over the next 4 years, and we may even lose the possibility of revitalising Yonge and Eglinton.
 
And I was getting hate on here earlier for saying Chow would slip. Well, I told you so.

Not that I am particularly happy with this, as I can't support Tory's position on Eglinton Connects and think SmartTracks is a horrible transit plan.

I don't get why everyone is so against Forum polls, they showed consistently to be the most accurate of the polls in the provincial election. If anything, I'd feel more suspect over non-Forum polls.

But here's the thing -- our mayor has one vote. We've seen the dynamics of council w.r.t. all of this, how they've cornered RF and disarmed him (well, except for his runaway mouth).

Well, I guess it is bad to mention RF and Tory in the same paragraph. I see some positives in Tory; things just may get accomplished, all the while progressives (like me) could still have our say. Tory will have to learn not to opine on things that are just not his bailiwick.
 

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