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1 Bloor East, DEAD AND BURIED (Bazis, -2s, Varacalli)

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From today's Globe:

The latest line in luxury condos starts at sidewalk
People queuing in eight-night campout mostly being paid to hold spots for real estate agents

TENILLE BONOGUORE

November 7, 2007

TORONTO -- It's like a casting call for capitalism: Give us your tired, your bored, your low-wage masses, yearning to sleep on a sidewalk and nibble Timbits so that the rich and real estate agents can bag one more super-luxury condo.

Toronto's real estate market reached a new high - or low, depending on your point of view - this week as more than 60 people set up temporary camp on Bloor Street to spend eight nights awaiting the opening of the One Bloor sales office.

When those doors open at noon next Tuesday, the people in line will give up their places in line to dozens of real estate agents who will have first option on the $850-a-square-foot units. Many expect the 80-storey tower to sell out on that brokers-only day.

It may not be the large, high-end apartments that are in hottest demand: Tradeworld real estate agent Winston Mak said the smaller, lower-priced units are generally easier to sell. That makes them hot commodities for anyone thinking of flipping.

Mr. Mak will spend most of the coming week surrounded by road construction, frustrated pedestrians and curious onlookers so he can buy units for two Toronto clients and one for himself. That's the maximum purchase, and he is hoping to snare for himself a unit that's "hopefully not too big."

The sidewalk campout began Monday morning when ReMax real estate agent Hersh Litvack and Royal LePage agent Anna Cass sought to catch their rivals unawares by starting the expected queue at an unexpected time: eight days before the sales event.

Eleven people were set up in camp chairs and given sleeping bags, umbrellas and food money. The building that houses the sales centre - a few doors east of where the condo tower is to stand - objected and had the rudimentary camp moved to a nearby alley that afternoon. But it was moved back to the sidewalk yesterday, and is likely to stay there until noon next Tuesday under the watchful gaze of security guards.

Planning for the campout began three weeks ago, when Mr. Litvack used contacts through his son to find young people with time on their hands who were willing to endure eight nights of rain, cold and boredom.

Mr. Litvack also arranged a nearby hotel room for showers, daily food and weather protection, all so his agents can have first pick of the condos.

While he wouldn't say how much money he is plowing into the bid to be first through the sales door, Mr. Litvack said the effort was not overkill. "If the building was 160 storeys, it would sell out," he said.

According to leading Toronto condo specialist Brad Lamb, the hype is justified. "This is a very premium corner, a very high building, and a lot of people want to be in this building. There's only so many units to go round," he said.

Mr. Lamb believes it's the hottest property market Toronto has ever seen, and noted that for the super-luxury market, the building is a lot more affordable than $1,200 a square foot at the Ritz-Carlton, Four Seasons or Shangri-La.

To keep the growing crowd in order, self-appointed queue organizer Monica Geiman started a roll call every two hours. Once a real estate agent or their representative is placed on the list, they must be present for each roll call or lose their spot, she said. As of yesterday afternoon, there were 69 people on the list.

According to word in the queue yesterday, the range of pay rates being offered by different real estate firms varied between $100 and $300 a day, while others had been offered $20 an hour.

One 22-year-old woman skipped work to be there, and said the potential trouble with her employer was worthwhile: The money she was paid will cover three months rent, a TV and food, she said. Plus, "I'm a very lazy person, so this is perfect."

But while there is a friendly, supportive atmosphere amid the blankets, toques and coffee cups, not everyone is sold on the condos.

Elliott Rudner, 24, expects most units to be flipped, but he wonders whether the hype created by such a campout will withstand the reality of the market.

"I think this is creating an image of something that might not be there," he said.

Others were far from wooed by the super-luxury condo pictures at the site. "If I had a stack of money, I'd buy myself a nice house," Hal Adler said.
 
Observer Walt - thanks for the additional info. Vulture - 233% profit margins? $180 construction costs? These numbers are unheard of... you would be lucky to pull off $180psf in costs to the developer on a four floor affordable housing project in a greenfield in Barrie let alone a 80 floor luxury tower in a complex urban environment. I'm not going to continue to participate this debate.
 
You guys have no clue what you're talking about. I'm positive most of you talking heads have never built a leggo set let alone a high rise building. $180 psf hard construction costs is completely achievable, particularly for an 80-storey building. At $700 psf sales and $300 psf cost the PROFIT MARGIN (I guess you never took a finance class) is well over 200%. There's nothing 'complex' about that figure. Yes, this building will supposedly be 'luxury' but the incremental costs of luxury finishes are not as high as you would think.


I'm not going to waste my time justifying my point to this crowd of architourists.

I'm not an architourists, I just like observing construction and development in the city.

However I did do a minor in Finance/Accounting in University, and I don't see where all your negative opinions on the Toronto Real Estate Market are coming from. You said it yourself, the past 10 years have been terrific; so what do you see on the horizion that the rest of us don't?
 
vultur, you seem to think that the construction materials and the construction's cost per square foot are the only items that factor into the overall cost of the development - and thus pricing.

You're making yourself look silly by saying: "At $700 psf sales and $300 psf cost the PROFIT MARGIN (I guess you never took a finance class) is well over 200%." Yeah, you'd be right if somehow a project had no additional costs other than construction, but hello????

What about the costs of lawyers, sales agents, marketing, architects, bringing it all to the City, all of the other 'background' contractors and of course property taxes in the interm. What about the "$300/sqft" hallways, stairs and elevators that are shared by residents? You do realize the developer won't eat these costs and that those are passed directly down to the consumer, don't you?
 
I think its safe to assume that.....

Vultur has no clue about he's talking about. I think we're all in agreement there.

Putting aside common sense which contridicts most of what he says, its also obvious that there are more than a few people on this board who obviously have a good deal of knowledge regarding construction/real estate costs and their posts speaks for themselves.

At this point, probably best to just ignore his erratic rantings and concentrate on the thread at hand. Sales are going to do well and 1Bloor will get built.

End of story.
 
What about the costs of lawyers, sales agents, marketing, architects, bringing it all to the City, all of the other 'background' contractors and of course property taxes in the interm. What about the "$300/sqft" hallways, stairs and elevators that are shared by residents? You do realize the developer won't eat these costs and that those are passed directly down to the consumer, don't you?

^Not to mention the carrying costs on the financing. That one's a biggie.

On the other hand, loath as I am to defend vultur, he is right on one point: the sales price of anything, including real estate, is not set by expenses, but instead is set at the exact price where the seller decides the total net sales (total sales minus continuing costs over the sales period) are the greatest. No matter what the costs are, that price will ensure the greatest net profit (assuming that their assumptions are correct).

Bill
 
What about the costs of lawyers, sales agents, marketing, architects, bringing it all to the City, all of the other 'background' contractors and of course property taxes in the interm.

Obviously, the fairy god mother pays for those "soft" costs.

I'm not going to waste my time justifying my point to this crowd of architourists

Justify what? That you're some commercial leasing agent pretending to be a Muzzo with a box of Lego?
 
I'm not sure what the fuss is about. Half a dozen large luxury projects with a few thousand units... even if they were 90% fueled by speculators who left them empty... would hardly hollow out downtown Toronto.

There may be some unwanted upward pressure on price caused by these projects... but by and large, I welcome them from a purely superficial pov... nice additions to the skyline.

Most of the (huge) Toronto market still seems to be about reasonable value and a place to live (unlike the '80s which was largely about flipping).
 
On the other hand, loath as I am to defend vultur, he is right on one point: the sales price of anything, including real estate, is not set by expenses, but instead is set at the exact price where the seller decides the total net sales (total sales minus continuing costs over the sales period) are the greatest. No matter what the costs are, that price will ensure the greatest net profit (assuming that their assumptions are correct).

Bill

Costs do get passed along to consumers, which is where 'cost push' inflation comes in. If global demand for copper increases and supply doesn't keep up, the price of copper goes up and any manufacturer that uses copper in its products will have higher costs as a result. This inflates prices.
 
Costs do get passed along to consumers, which is where 'cost push' inflation comes in. If global demand for copper increases and supply doesn't keep up, the price of copper goes up and any manufacturer that uses copper in its products will have higher costs as a result. This inflates prices.

The price of copper would increase because the copper demand curve (which would move upwards) would intersect the copper supply curve (which stays the same) at a higher price.

Supply and demand curves

ANY increase in price beyond this point will result in lower total income from sales. However, if the increased price is due to higher input costs, the lower sales income is more than counterbalanced by the reduction in costs due to lower amounts of the input (i.e. copper) being needed. In other words, the supply curve for the product has shifted to the right, raising the equilibrium price for the product. The sales price is still set at the point where total profit (sales income minus costs) is maximised.

A condominium, however, requires the same amount of concrete, rebar, labour, etc., regardless of the cost of the inputs. Raising the price to the buyer will reduce the total sales income (unless the estimated equilibrium price was mistakenly set too low before), but not reduce the total expenditure on input costs at all, hence the developer's total profit would be lower.

Bill
 
Sorry to go off topic, but everyone keeps saying the word 'flipping'. I thought flipping is when you renovate an old crappy place and turn it into something someone would actually want to buy.
 
went by the site for the first time today since the "line up" started.
That line up sure looks like top knotch buyers! I would say that most of the people in line are likely homeless, so the $300 they are getting to wait there for a week is probably worth the wait for them.
 
went by the site for the first time today since the "line up" started.
That line up sure looks like top knotch buyers! I would say that most of the people in line are likely homeless, so the $300 they are getting to wait there for a week is probably worth the wait for them.

The interviewed some of those people on CBC Radio this morning. I get the sense that they're mostly starving students who are looking for some easy money. Lucky they only have to show up for roll call every 2 hours, but its probably the biggest exploitation of labour I've seen in a while.

Marx would be rolling in his grave.
 
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