Will Tory face stronger opposition from the Left or a right-wing populist in the next election?

[CodeMonkey]

Under this system, strategic voting would be punished and would allow voters to be more honest with their votes, as it allows every vote to feel more important to the individual voter.

Candidates would think twice about using attack ads, as doing so may alienate voters who prefer the candidate being attacked first and the attacking candidate second.

Ranked balloting doesn't eliminated strategic voting, it does make it harder, but its still possible. I'm not going into detail, I don't want to be the person who gave it away, but ranked ballots doesn't solve all the problem of FPTP.

 

[TrickyRicky]

Things could change but as of now I think that Tory could stay Mayor as long as he chooses.

I think the NDP left is in decline in the city. They really need to re-focus. In my opinion they are becoming increasingly marginalized in the city to select central city neighbourhoods and have strangely become the group that is the least ethnically diverse. Unfortunately, even in these central neighbourhoods demographics are working against them as I feel new residents are more likely to be Liberal or even Conservative voters at the higher government level. Joe Cressy or say Mike Layton (and this is no comment on their abilities or personalities or suitability) I feel are symbolic of everything that is wrong with the left strategically in the city. If I was a strategist for this group (a group I don't vote for by the way) I would look to establish a solid base and platform that speaks to voters in the outer 401 belt (North of the 401).

 

[adma]

If the city were smart, the number of councillors will be cut to 25 to match the federal and provincial. This would mean a lot of councillors without safe seats. I also think they would be wise to come up with a new position (one per borough (or community council), that would have somewhat stronger voting power on council**. These positions, let's call them Aldermen (or superdelegates), would be a stepping stone to mayor and attract more press coverage helping future mayoralty candidates with advanced exposure.

** - of course the mayor would more power still than these Aldermen.

The fact that you're seriously offering the term "Aldermen" in 2016 shows that you're dating yourself.

 

[King of Kensington]

Not to forget Pasternak. He doesn't get as much airtime as Mammo and JimmyK, but he's as batshit as they are.

Pasternak is a pro-Israel fanatic, which is popular among his constituency of Orthodox Jews and Jews from the FSU (there aren't many liberal Reform types living up there). What's strange to me is how Howard Kaplan gets elected as school trustee.

 

[King of Kensington]

Things could change but as of now I think that Tory could stay Mayor as long as he chooses.

I think the NDP left is in decline in the city. They really need to re-focus. In my opinion they are becoming increasingly marginalized in the city to select central city neighbourhoods and have strangely become the group that is the least ethnically diverse. Unfortunately, even in these central neighbourhoods demographics are working against them as I feel new residents are more likely to be Liberal or even Conservative voters at the higher government level. Joe Cressy or say Mike Layton (and this is no comment on their abilities or personalities or suitability) I feel are symbolic of everything that is wrong with the left strategically in the city. If I was a strategist for this group (a group I don't vote for by the way) I would look to establish a solid base and platform that speaks to voters in the outer 401 belt (North of the 401).

NDP support is pretty contained to its west-central Toronto and Riverdale area base at this point. Hence Olivia Chow took the three adjacent wards 14, 18 and 19 and came close in wards 20 and 30. Provincially it's just Cheri DiNovo and Peter Tabuns left (who won based on a strong NDP base in their ridings and their personal popularity, in spite of Andrea Horwath's "fuck Toronto" campaign.)

In the last federal election, even cracking 40% of the vote in Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Danforth wasn't enough (even their popular vote didn't change much, they were done in by higher turnout). The old Trinity-Spadina riding (now carved into University-Rosedale and Fort York ridings) really saw a big drop in support and it wasn't even close. Jennifer Hollett and Olivia Chow only won a handful of polls.

Jack Layton was able to appeal in York-Weston and Scarborough in 2011, but since then they've really lost it.

 

[King of Kensington]

Considering the new deals with the unions, the possibility of outrage needed to turf anyone becomes minimal - and the voters default to their disengaged self. I'd say Tory is safe for the second term barring unforeseeable missteps.

The left frankly could use a makeover - they're still stuck in the old Union=good days that's sort of out of touch and not reflective of the reality - and worse, they have no deliverables.

AoD

Really? Toronto's Left seems more "post-materialist" than working class or union-based.

If anything a more "class-based" and populist approach would resonate more in the periphery.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Really? Toronto's Left seems more "post-materialist" than working class or union-based.

If anything a more "class-based" and populist approach would resonate more in the periphery.

Well no, considering those who still got a union aren't exactly the ones in the most trouble in the current socioeconomic order. The traditional working class and unions has been diverging for awhile now.

Which is also precisely why the messaging of the left isn't resonating with the periphery.

AoD

 

[King of Kensington]

Right but it's not as if the Toronto municipal left is "stuck in the 50s" or something. And the left strongholds in the city are far more "modern" and "post-materialist" in orientation than the periphery is. I would argue that the distance between the left strongholds in the core and the working class periphery of Rexdale, York-Weston and Scarborough is far greater in the area of cultural politics than it is on economics.

While there are certainly many Neil Flagg "true believers" among the Ford constituency, a lot of them aren't exactly believers in conservative orthodoxy on economics.

What you are very right about is the decoupling of union membership with the working class. The old unionized, manual working class in the private sector has shrunk significantly and much of what remains is a largely educated, middle class public sector union movement. And when it comes about defending this group's relative privilege it doesn't fly well with those who are poorer (the mistake of course is to believe "taking these fat cats down a notch" will improve things for everyone below them, a view that's too often believed).

The left needs to develop a left-populist economic message that resonates, and channel the anti-elite sentiment that exists in a different, more progressive direction.

 

[Johnny Au]

In other words, we need someone like Bernie Sanders.

We also need a left-wing counterpart of Flagg. Perhaps we could get Ulli Diemer of Connexions on the left's side.

 

[adma]

We also need a left-wing counterpart of Flagg. Perhaps we could get Ulli Diemer of Connexions on the left's side.

Flagg's beneath left-wing counterpartting.

 

[christiesplits]

The NDP's fortunes in the old city limits are hurting due in large part to gentrification. Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex or the Beaches who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality.

The left needs to develop a left-populist economic message that resonates, and channel the anti-elite sentiment that exists in a different, more progressive direction.

Which is why I think that Horwath's folksy populism in 2014 was not misplaced. The party saw an opening in the SW Ontario rust belt and inner-suburbs of York and Scarborough. In York West, a Dipper dead zone that includes Jane and Finch, the NDP candidate came within 1000 votes of winning. The downtown NDP intelligentsia despised Horwath and her bread-and-butter platform, but people forget that in 2014 the NDP's popular vote across the province actually went up. A disappointing result? Sure. But far from the wipe-out that hit Mulcair.

 

[King of Kensington]

The NDP's fortunes in the old city limits are hurting due in large part to gentrification. Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex or the Beaches who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality.

Yes and no. The NDP does best in the "sort of gentrified" areas.

Which is why I think that Horwath's folksy populism in 2014 was not misplaced. The party saw an opening in the SW Ontario rust belt and inner-suburbs of York and Scarborough. In York West, a Dipper dead zone that includes Jane and Finch, the NDP candidate came within 1000 votes of winning. The downtown NDP intelligentsia despised Horwath and her bread-and-butter platform, but people forget that in 2014 the NDP's popular vote across the province actually went up. A disappointing result? Sure. But far from the wipe-out that hit Mulcair.

I very much disagree. Andrea Horwath ran on a stupid right-wing platform and that strategy of appealing to "Ford Nation" and "orange Tories" yielded no net gains. They sacrificed 3 Toronto MPPs for 3 elsewhere and have less influence now in the legislature.

Sanders has shown you can be a left-populist who can appeal to young educated urban voters and working class voters alike and he doesn't turn to right-wing talking points.

Coming close in York West is the exception that proves the rule. Mario Sergio is way past his best before date. In other workin class outer Toronto ridings the NDP went down: in York South-Weston (where they have a long history that was recently revived with Ferriera/Sullivan) and in Scarborough.

 

[King of Kensington]

Given that the municipal left bombed in two elections: first trying to carry on the Miller legacy, then against the Fords - I am beginning to wonder if any councillor will want to try in 2018. Perhaps it'll be like 2000 when Tooker Gomberg ran. He only got 8% of the vote, but it had more impact and will probably be remembered longer than Pants and Olivia's campaigns.

 

[Videodrome]

With Tory being well liked by the left, centre and even some of Ford Nation, does anyone want to challenge him?

 

[Towered]

At this point I can't see anyone being a threat to him. He's so perfectly middle of the road that he doesn't offend anyone, which explains his consistently high poll numbers. It would take a colossal screw-up or scandal to chink his armour from either a right or left perspective.