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Will Tory face stronger opposition from the Left or a right-wing populist in the next election?

Palma said:
how would that work?
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It is also known as ranked ballots. Voters rank candidates by order of preference and the candidate with the fewest first choice votes would be eliminated until one candidate has more than half of the votes.

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Under this system, strategic voting would be punished and would allow voters to be more honest with their votes, as it allows every vote to feel more important to the individual voter.

Candidates would think twice about using attack ads, as doing so may alienate voters who prefer the candidate being attacked first and the attacking candidate second.
 
adma said:
Though remember that a dark horse like Nenshi was scarcely "populist" in the Trump/Ford/Sanders sense; when it comes to "left-wing populist", the closest such thing in recent years in Toronto was Tooker Gomberg in 2010. (But in the more distant past, of course, there was John Sewell in the 70s, the closest thing to a polarizing "Ford of the left" Toronto ever had.)

As far as left-leaning mayoral contenders go, there's long been a "watch Kristyn Wong-Tam" feeling in the air; but much like her predecessor Kyle Rae she's been shifting in a stylishly pragmatic power-brokering centre direction--not that she doesn't still bear watching, of course...
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Agree, Nenshi was not that kind of populist at all - not an "us vs. them" message, but "let's come together", like Obama.
 
Something to ponder: what if Ford's cancer diagnosis was a few days later and he wasn't on the ballot. How different would have the result have been? Were there a lot of Olivia Chow rather than Tory second choices among working class voters? My guess is in that scenario Olivia would have won the inner city wards, but Tory would have prevailed. And turnout would have been significantly lower.
 
King of Kensington said:
Something to ponder: what if Ford's cancer diagnosis was a few days later and he wasn't on the ballot. How different would have the result have been? Were there a lot of Olivia Chow rather than Tory second choices among working class voters? My guess is in that scenario Olivia would have won the inner city wards, but Tory would have prevailed. And turnout would have been significantly lower.
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Then he would have gone back to rehab, or there would have been a DECO emergency, or he would have decided to take a position at the United Nations... Rob's internal polling numbers were so thoroughly shit by the withdrawal deadline that he was off the ballot regardless.
 
I think the left will definitely anoint a candidate next election. Even in 2010, despite Miller's unpopularity and the controversy surrounding Giambrone's botched campaign, they still fielded Pantalone as their flag bearer.

I have no idea who would run. Perhaps a high profile Dipper councillor like KWT or Janet Davis. I think a high profile, former "Layton Wave" MP like Peggy Nash or Andrew Cash could be a possibility. It wouldn't be the first time an NDP MP ran for mayor.
 
Though KWT does seem to be wobbling on a line btw/ "left" and "centrist" these days--then again, that indeed might be in preparation for a potential candidacy.
 
mjl08 said:
I think the left will definitely anoint a candidate next election. Even in 2010, despite Miller's unpopularity and the controversy surrounding Giambrone's botched campaign, they still fielded Pantalone as their flag bearer.
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They'll be talk. But if Tory is doing well in the polls, and high profile donors and organizers aren't beating the bushes, the left could easily sit this one out (as they did in 2000, when Lastman's main challengers were Tooker Gomberg and Enza Supermodel). 2010 was different because there was no incumbent, Smitherman was seen as vulnerable, people like Rocco Rossi were shifting to the right leaving the left and centre-left more open, and nobody expected Rob Ford to accomplish what he did. This time, no high-profile left Councillor is going to risk their seat to tilt at windmills, and no former NDP MPP or MP, especially if they still have electoral ambitions, is going to line up to be a sacrificial lamb, particularly if we are faced with another "anybody but Ford" election. If there isn't a Ford in the race, if Tory stumbles, if Tory faces a non-Ford challenger on the right - then we're more likely to see a high-profile candidate on the left. But, so far in the amalgamated Toronto, we have a bit of a tradition when non-crack smoking mayors have a pretty easy time of it getting a second term.
 
Considering the new deals with the unions, the possibility of outrage needed to turf anyone becomes minimal - and the voters default to their disengaged self. I'd say Tory is safe for the second term barring unforeseeable missteps.

The left frankly could use a makeover - they're still stuck in the old Union=good days that's sort of out of touch and not reflective of the reality - and worse, they have no deliverables.

AoD
 
Skeezix said:
They'll be talk. But if Tory is doing well in the polls, and high profile donors and organizers aren't beating the bushes, the left could easily sit this one out (as they did in 2000, when Lastman's main challengers were Tooker Gomberg and Enza Supermodel).
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I think the best strategic move would be to focus money and resources on council races. Focus on a half a dozen wards with goofball incumbents (Palacio, Mamo, JK) and find solid progressive alternatives. Plus, Cho and Moeser are not expected to run again. Six wards moving to the left could tilt the balance of council, and put Tory's feet to the fire.

Also, depending on the results of the ward review, there could be a bunch of scenarios where incumbents will face off against one another (McMahon vs. Fletcher, Perks vs. Bailao, etc) as well as a number of "new" wards, especially downtown, which would be ideal turf for progressives.
 
mjl08 said:
I think the best strategic move would be to focus money and resources on council races. Focus on a half a dozen wards with goofball incumbents (Palacio, Mamo, JK) and find solid progressive alternatives. Plus, Cho and Moeser are not expected to run again. Six wards moving to the left could tilt the balance of council, and put Tory's feet to the fire.

Also, depending on the results of the ward review, there could be a bunch of scenarios where incumbents will face off against one another (McMahon vs. Fletcher, Perks vs. Bailao, etc) as well as a number of "new" wards, especially downtown, which would be ideal turf for progressives.
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Not to forget Pasternak. He doesn't get as much airtime as Mammo and JimmyK, but he's as batshit as they are.
 
mjl08 said:
Also, depending on the results of the ward review, there could be a bunch of scenarios where incumbents will face off against one another (McMahon vs. Fletcher, Perks vs. Bailao, etc) as well as a number of "new" wards, especially downtown, which would be ideal turf for progressives.
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I thought McMahon pledged to be a two-termer at most, and even stood by that pledge last election...
 
If the city were smart, the number of councillors will be cut to 25 to match the federal and provincial. This would mean a lot of councillors without safe seats. I also think they would be wise to come up with a new position (one per borough (or community council), that would have somewhat stronger voting power on council**. These positions, let's call them Aldermen (or superdelegates), would be a stepping stone to mayor and attract more press coverage helping future mayoralty candidates with advanced exposure.

** - of course the mayor would more power still than these Aldermen.
 
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