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Will Tory face stronger opposition from the Left or a right-wing populist in the next election?

King of Kensington

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Yes, it's a long way from the next election. But do you think Tory's main opponent in the next election be one of the progressive/social democratic side or will there still be a right-wing populist movement (if not from one of the Fords, maybe someone like Jim Karygiannis taking up the mantle?)

In other words will we return to a "normal" left/right polarization or will erratic populism still be a thing?
 

Videodrome

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That is a good question. Tory has this ability to make the left and right mad, but still be really popular. Maybe a more left leaning person would challenge him in 2018. I just don't see a Ford threat next time.
 

Skeezix

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I think Rob Ford's ego will force him to run in the next election (assuming his health is not at issue). Ford won't win (I don't think he'll even do nearly as well as Dougie did the last go around), but he'll suck up all the oxygen on the populist/right-wing side.

On the left side, I don't see any of the usual names on Council risking their Council seats to challenge Tory. As for an outsider, I am not sure who that would be at this point. There might be someone who fancies him/herself a Bernie Sanders of the 416 who might run more to establish name recognition and credentials for next time, rather than seriously vying for the mayor's chair this time around.

I suspect the next election will be much like Miller's second election and Lastman's second election. A strong incumbent facing a bunch of also-rans.
 

King of Kensington

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While "running in the center" guarantees nothing, Tory's position as an incumbent and in the center means he's well positioned for any sort of strategic vote against the left or a Ford or Fordesque populist.

As for a Bernie Sanders - interesting question. De Blasio in NYC ran a rather Sanders-like campaign (though he's a pretty establishment Democrat and has endorsed Hillary Clinton). The closest thing to a left-wing populist maverick is Cheri DiNovo.
 

wild goose chase

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Canadians seem less divided in a way that has populists on both the right and left who are tired of centrists who compromise, in way that Trump and Sanders are both popular as a backlash towards the "establishment". There's Ford, I suppose who came and bucked this trend but it seems like Canucks are a bit less prone to that than our neighbours stateside to take anti-centrist or anti-establishment stances.
 

CodeMonkey

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Assuming that Rob Ford health improves, I see him having a chance winning in the next election, but I think it will depend on a third candidate splitting the vote. In the last election, John Tory won by taking voters away from Olivia Chow in Old Toronto and votes away from Doug Ford in North York. Had Olivia Chow kept Old Toronto from John Tory, we would be having a "Doug Ford's Toronto" thread.
 

Palma

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John Tory says he is a 2 term mayor so i bet no will be running against him in 2018 which opens the floodgate for 2022. Most of these councillor like their comfy job and won't risk it to run for mayor and lose. I wish there was a rule if a councillor wishes to run for mayor, he would need to resign seat and would not have the opportunity by a certain date when they see the polls show they have no chance of winning, to withdraw and continue to run as councillor.
 

adma

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Though remember that a dark horse like Nenshi was scarcely "populist" in the Trump/Ford/Sanders sense; when it comes to "left-wing populist", the closest such thing in recent years in Toronto was Tooker Gomberg in 2010. (But in the more distant past, of course, there was John Sewell in the 70s, the closest thing to a polarizing "Ford of the left" Toronto ever had.)

As far as left-leaning mayoral contenders go, there's long been a "watch Kristyn Wong-Tam" feeling in the air; but much like her predecessor Kyle Rae she's been shifting in a stylishly pragmatic power-brokering centre direction--not that she doesn't still bear watching, of course...
 

Towered

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It seems that Gord Perks has taken up the mantle of being Tory's "official opposition", at least from the left wing. Perhaps he's raising his profile to run against him in the next election, but at the same time he seems like one of those guys who likes to stay in his little fiefdom (ward) forever.
 

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