Rufus8
Active Member
according to reports we will find out 20 Sep.
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Will Justin Trudeau's Liberals win every seat in Toronto again?
- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
C
christiesplits
Guest
The Liberals are sort of in a Catch 22 in a lot of progressive-leaning urban ridings like Davenport, Parkdale High Park and Toronto Danforth.
On the one hand, they are polling well, but the NDP is also polling better than 2019. More importantly, the low polling for the CPC means that the Liberals will have a harder time convincing soft NDP/leftish-flexible voters to vote strategically for the Liberals because the CPC boogeyman is no longer within reach of a majority.
I could even see a scenario where the Liberals increase their national seat count, but lose a smattering urban ridings like Davenport due to a decline in strategic voting among leftish progressive types.
On the one hand, they are polling well, but the NDP is also polling better than 2019. More importantly, the low polling for the CPC means that the Liberals will have a harder time convincing soft NDP/leftish-flexible voters to vote strategically for the Liberals because the CPC boogeyman is no longer within reach of a majority.
I could even see a scenario where the Liberals increase their national seat count, but lose a smattering urban ridings like Davenport due to a decline in strategic voting among leftish progressive types.
tripwire
Active Member
Can we please get ranked ballots?! 
King of Kensington
Senior Member
Alejandra Bravo is a very good candidate for the NDP. She speaks Portuguese as well as her native Spanish. She has performed well in the more Liberal, ethnic northern part of the riding in the past.
Northern Light
Superstar
I'll post a couple riding-level polls. These are from MainStreet.
Link here: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/poll/importance-of-climate-change-federally/
Parkdale-HighPark:
Mainstreet riding poll:
34.5% Liberal, 14.3% Conservative, 16.6% NDP. 8.8% Green.
23% undecided.
Toronto Centre:
Mainstreet riding poll: 40% Lib, 15.5% Green.
24% undecided.
Link here: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/poll/importance-of-climate-change-federally/
Parkdale-HighPark:
Mainstreet riding poll:
34.5% Liberal, 14.3% Conservative, 16.6% NDP. 8.8% Green.
23% undecided.
Toronto Centre:
Mainstreet riding poll: 40% Lib, 15.5% Green.
24% undecided.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
These seem questionable. The NDP only 2 points ahead of the Conservatives in PHP?
Northern Light
Superstar
I agree, seems odd.
But I just double-checked, that is what's posted by Main Street.
christiesplits
Senior Member
I'm cautious of riding-era polls. In 2019 there was a poll in Hamilton Centre - I think by Ekos - that had the Liberals up by two. On Election Day the NDP won by 18 points.
I also recall a lot of 2018 municipal ward-level polls being way off on Election Day.
I also recall a lot of 2018 municipal ward-level polls being way off on Election Day.
Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
Sample sizes for those local ridings tend to be smaller than you would like for drawing polling conclusions.
Rufus8
Active Member
We still don't have confirmed candidates for Spadina-Fort York. Informally it looks like Norm DiPasquale (NDP), Amanda Rosenstock (Green), Kevin Vuong (Liberal) & Ian Roden (PPC), why is Elections Canada dragging it's feet on confirming candidates?
christiesplits
Senior Member
I heard there are two key delays:
1. Candidates need to get 150 signatures before getting on the ballot, which is a lot harder to do during COVID.
2. Elections Canada riding returning offices aren't all open yet, as it's taking longer to set up with COVID precautions.
dusk
Active Member
Toronto Centre is sadly a Liberal lock until hell freezes over. Makes me not want to vote.
afransen
Senior Member
It makes me think Paul is either an idiot, incredibly arrogant, or doesn't actually care about the party. Her behaviour is completely unfathomable. Is this all just a personal vanity project for her?
christiesplits
Senior Member
I did a an unscientific sign census from Cabbagetown through Riverdale, Leslieville and The Beaches this morning. Liberal signs are all over Toronto Centre, with a few Green sightings, NDP and Liberals signs are pretty evenly split in Toronto Danforth, and its it's nothing but Liberal signs in The Beaches. Of course, signs don't vote, but they can give a sense of resources and momentum.
Speaking of The Beaches, I heard from a Liberal friend that Beaches councillor Brad Bradford's mom is running for the Liberals in Kitchener South—Hespeler.
Speaking of The Beaches, I heard from a Liberal friend that Beaches councillor Brad Bradford's mom is running for the Liberals in Kitchener South—Hespeler.
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Northern Light
Superstar
Valerie Bradford is indeed running there!