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Will Justin Trudeau's Liberals win every seat in Toronto again?

Will the Liberals win every seat in Toronto again?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 48.7%

  • No

    Votes: 20 51.3%
  • Total voters
    39
After Annamie Paul’s decent second place showing in the Toronto Centre by-election, I felt that she would be formidable in the next general.

Now with all the inner party squabbling mere months away from an election, it seems unlikely she can beat Marci Ien in a rematch.
 
Usually the opposition does well in by-elections. In the general it would be much tougher.

I have to wonder if Paul will survive as leader if/when she fails to secure her seat.
 
afransen said:
Usually the opposition does well in by-elections. In the general it would be much tougher.

I have to wonder if Paul will survive as leader if/when she fails to secure her seat.
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Elizabeth May lost at least one race before finally winning a seat on Vancouver Island. Paul might not be given the same courtesy to run again, given the inner party strife, and the poor judgment of running in historically one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada.
 
picard102 said:
This will be Paul's third kick at the can, second as leader though. I doubt she goes quietly even after losing a third time
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Thanks, didn’t know she ran in 2019 too. She would have been more formidable in Guelph, which has a bigger Green Party base.
 
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christiesplits said:
Elizabeth May lost at least one race before finally winning a seat on Vancouver Island. Paul might not be given the same courtesy to run again, given the inner party strife, and the poor judgment of running in historically one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada.
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While it was a safe Liberal seat, it was probably the best conditions in recent memory to turn it. Also, as far I am aware, that is where she lives and that byelection was called before she was elected leader. She had agreed to run there in advance, simply to be an MP, but she won the leadership in the time between Morneau resigning and the day of the byelection. If anything, the Greens should have had a quicker leadership replacement process as you never know when a seat will open up!
 
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Jonny5 said:
While it was a safe Liberal seat, it was probably the best conditions in recent memory to turn it. Also, as far I am aware, that is where she lives and that byelection was called before she was elected leader. She had agreed to run there in advance, simply to be an MP, but she won the leadership in the time between Morneau resigning and the day of the byelection. If anything, the Greens should have had a quicker leadership replacement process as you never know when a seat will open up!
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The Liberals had plenty of time to call a byelection in Toronto Centre -- it was the York Centre seat that was vacant for months that needed the call. They knew that two of the candidates for the Green leadership had recent ties to Toronto Centre -- Paul and Glen Murray -- yet they wasted no time appointing a "star" candidate and calling a snap byelection there. Then the Liberals and Liberal-friendly media types blasted the NDP for running a candidate against the new Green Party leader in that same riding they rushed to get a new WOC installed.
 
Not surprised Vaughan isn't running again, Trudeau has stopped having him front and centre for photo ops ( he told Trudeau months ago). It isn't easy being an MP, he's got his pension now and is looking for a new pot of gold - he's said he has an announcement to make. God knows who will run, more likely a name to go along with the profile. Trudeau needs another star for his front bench photo ops. Will be interesting to see who the Greens put in.
 
Rufus8 said:
Not surprised Vaughan isn't running again, Trudeau has stopped having him front and centre for photo ops ( he told Trudeau months ago). It isn't easy being an MP, he's got his pension now and is looking for a new pot of gold - he's said he has an announcement to make. God knows who will run, more likely a name to go along with the profile. Trudeau needs another star for his front bench photo ops. Will be interesting to see who the Greens put in.
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Maybe he'll run for mayor...
 
Towered said:
Maybe he'll run for mayor...
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It wouldn't surprise me now that Tory has suggested (publicly) that he might not run again, these things are all decided behind closed doors. Adam Vaughan wouldn't be a terrible mayor - good connection with the feds to keep the money flowing. The only thing that bothers me is that he was the MP who stood around while the province dumped on Toronto when Ford was first elected. Remember "downtown elites"? How long ago was that! I am not convinced that Ford has reconsidered his contempt for the city, it's only the crisis that keeps that grudge under raps. I still want Toronto to be it's own province or even city-state, we are big enough and ugly enough to look after ourselves, this constant tugging on the provinces apron for approval is galling. Until we get some real vision or courage it won't happen.
 
I’m surprised Vaughan is stepping away from politics.

Still, I never felt party politics was his cup of tea. He excelled in council but had an aloof shoot-off-the-hip style that conflicts with the party whip parliamentary system. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he was upset he never got a cabinet role, only making it as high as parliamentary secretary.
 
I think the NDP have a good shot at Davenport and decent one at PHP and Danforth. Greens will not win Toronto Centre and will probably come behind NDP there.
 
Rufus8 said:
It wouldn't surprise me now that Tory has suggested (publicly) that he might not run again, these things are all decided behind closed doors. Adam Vaughan wouldn't be a terrible mayor - good connection with the feds to keep the money flowing. The only thing that bothers me is that he was the MP who stood around while the province dumped on Toronto when Ford was first elected. Remember "downtown elites"? How long ago was that! I am not convinced that Ford has reconsidered his contempt for the city, it's only the crisis that keeps that grudge under raps. I still want Toronto to be it's own province or even city-state, we are big enough and ugly enough to look after ourselves, this constant tugging on the provinces apron for approval is galling. Until we get some real vision or courage it won't happen.
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I heard nothing of this.
 
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