KevinT
Senior Member
I remember thinking that about the last Ontario election. To my surprise, other than in Hamilton, things have carried on pretty well.
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VIA Rail
- Thread starter ehlow
- Start date
I remember thinking that about the last Ontario election. To my surprise, other than in Hamilton, things have carried on pretty well.
roger1818
Senior Member
Federal budget proposals focus on health care spending
Recommendations include a call to ‘create a nationalized child-care system or increase funding for child care’ and to consider a universal basic incomewww.theglobeandmail.com
Don't count your chickens. There is a good chance that this budget isn't passed and an election is called. Even if it is passed, if an election is called this year, and the Conservatives form the next government (which is possible and maybe even likely especially if opinions swing against the liberals), the project is dead as they will cut spending.
Bottom line, this is far from a done deal. In my opinion, this recommendation brings the likelihood of this being built from 0% to 25%. There are just too many stumbling points ahead.
Edit:
/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/opinion/star-columnists/2021/02/10/trudeaus-strategic-plans-aimed-at-june-election/trudeau.jpg)
Opinion | Trudeau’s strategic plans aimed at June election
Federal Liberal insiders say the prime minister will be ready to take Canadians to the polls following a federal budget and a successful roll out of v...www.thestar.com
While I agree we can't count our chickens, it is a step in the right direction. I also wouldn't assume that a Conservative government would cancel HFR. As the article you linked says:
HFR will not only create jobs but it will make VIA more sustainable in the long term, reducing their need for subsidies in the future.
Darwinkgo
Active Member
And probably a cheaper way to establish all day service to Peterborough than trying to force a Go-Line there, a perennial Conservative promise.
2transpo
New Member
I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about the prospect of a Conservative government. The federal party is very different to the provincial party. The last time the Conservatives formed a federal government, the consequences for VIA were horrific. Their answer to cutting subsidies was cutting service (which only caused the opposite).
Also remember that this is an eastern Canada project, so HFR would be a particular target to cut. They would probably shift the money for other projects, likely roads, oil and gas in western Canada.
Also remember that this is an eastern Canada project, so HFR would be a particular target to cut. They would probably shift the money for other projects, likely roads, oil and gas in western Canada.
SFO-YYZ
Active Member
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That is a good question. If you look at one of the Amtrak San Joaquins Venture cars, it seems as if the door on one end is for high platforms and the door on the other is for low platforms, but VIA is only having doors at one end of the cars.
As you can see from first picture, the low platform door, seems to have fixed stairs inside the coach and a low gap filler and from the second picture, the high platform door has a gap filler for high platforms. It will be interesting to see what they do for VIA's cars.
Image courtesy EuroCityCard Blog
Photo by Marc Glucksman
Thank you for the explanation!
As a side note, it's amazing how Amtrak can always find a way to make a modern rollingstock look like it's out of the 1980s (stainless steal exterior, colour scheme, etc...)
SFO-YYZ
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Once again, it's all speculation at this point.
Also, it's not like the Federal Liberals have done a ton for VIA Rail during the last 5 years or the 13+ years they were in power prior to that. In many ways, two sides of the same coin, take your pick.
roger1818
Senior Member
While I agree that Erin O’Toole isn't Doug Ford, he isn't Stephen Harper either.
2transpo
New Member
You're not wrong, but I see it a bit differently. The choice is between the current government, which hasn't been supportive enough of VIA but hasn't done it much harm, and the Conservatives, which have done monumental damage to VIA and have played the largest role in making it the animated corpse we know today.
Also, the choice is between a party that has humoured HFR but has not been supportive enough, and a party that is virtually guaranteed to cancel the project.
The election is the biggest threat to HFR and is the reason it is unlikely to be built especially since he Conservatives have a strong chance of coming from behind and winning it.
If the Conservatives form the next government, I would be willing to bet $1000 that HFR is cancelled.
ssiguy2
Senior Member
I don't think HFR will get much federal attention because it doesn't get any attention from most people including in the Corridor and most of that is completely due to VIA itself.
Higher frequency rail, to most people, just means more frequent slow boats to China and that isn't enough to sway anybody. If VIA was to make it clear that it's HFR project not only makes the trains run by more frequently but also do so on time and will ,at least, result in 30% faster travel times then people would get excited and hence the political pressure would be there to force the Liberals to act. This is very similar to RER. The OL is a new project but gets far more attention than RER which is potentially far more transformative project than the OL but gets no respect. This is because ML has stated just 15 minute service even though it will be much higher during the weekdays than 11:30 PM on a Sunday night and also they haven't mentioned a damn thing about fares so most just see it as more frequent trains that they can't afford to take.
HFR is far too nebulous a concept to get the public behind it and VIA must make it clear just how much more reliable it will be and how much faster. When a government commits to billion of dollars in funding for a particular project people want to know what exactly is in it for them and at this point VIA has done a horrible job of conveying that message to the general public.
Higher frequency rail, to most people, just means more frequent slow boats to China and that isn't enough to sway anybody. If VIA was to make it clear that it's HFR project not only makes the trains run by more frequently but also do so on time and will ,at least, result in 30% faster travel times then people would get excited and hence the political pressure would be there to force the Liberals to act. This is very similar to RER. The OL is a new project but gets far more attention than RER which is potentially far more transformative project than the OL but gets no respect. This is because ML has stated just 15 minute service even though it will be much higher during the weekdays than 11:30 PM on a Sunday night and also they haven't mentioned a damn thing about fares so most just see it as more frequent trains that they can't afford to take.
HFR is far too nebulous a concept to get the public behind it and VIA must make it clear just how much more reliable it will be and how much faster. When a government commits to billion of dollars in funding for a particular project people want to know what exactly is in it for them and at this point VIA has done a horrible job of conveying that message to the general public.
Allandale25
Senior Member
MisterF
Senior Member
I wouldn't say that bringing GO trains to Peterborough is a perennial Conservative promise. Back in the 90s it was the Liberals making that promise and I don't recall any Conservative leaders doing the same since, although I could be wrong. It's a classic bellweather riding so it gets promises from all parties. True to form, the current Peterborough MP is a Liberal and the MPP is a Conservative.
Northern Light
Superstar
I don't know about GO either; but former Conservative MP Dean Del Maestro regularly trumpeted the idea of restoring a Toronto-Ptbo rail connection.
From Wikipedia:
Link here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Del_Mastro
MisterF
Senior Member
Yes you're right, I was thinking provincially so I forgot all about that proposal. So the promise has been made by both parties.
2transpo
New Member
When HFR gets officially cancelled, I think that will put the dream of passenger rail in Peterborough to rest. HFR is the only realistic way to get rail service there, and with all the political pitfalls on the horizon, it isn't likely to happen.
Darwinkgo
Active Member
All the pessimism on here. I think unless the JPO study shows a huge environmental or Indigenous rights problem, or the cost estimate comes back at way more than $1 billion capital subsidy wise, I think no matter who is in government that the project goes forward. It is a project that the federal government has sole control over, making it far easier to get things moving than federal funds needing to flow through other levels of government.
Still a chance the JPO comes back at 0 subsidy.
Still a chance the JPO comes back at 0 subsidy.