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VIA Rail

The G&M article has a lot more detail. Was fantastic. Thanks Paul.

Good to see travel times refined a bit. Toronto-Montreal aside, the rest of the segments are looking fantastic.

There's some oddities in their plan though:

Why is there 15 departures throughout from Toronto to Montreal, but 18 on the Montreal-VDQ segment? They have the ridership to justify that? From 5 trains today? It's a bigger jump than any other segment. If they are putting on extra trains, then why not Ottawa-Montreal?

Why the billion+ more for rolling stock? Shouldn't the new trains be sufficient for HFR? After all, higher speeds should make them more productive? I would have thought a smaller DMU fleet for the Kingston hub would not be this expensive. I expected some stock to be purchased. Not 11% more than what they spent on the recent Siemens order. They need that much more rolling stock?
 
I'm starting to wonder if going to Quebec City is about getting CDPQ Infra onboard as an investor.
 
kEiThZ said:
The G&M article has a lot more detail. Was fantastic. Thanks Paul.

Good to see travel times refined a bit. Toronto-Montreal aside, the rest of the segments are looking fantastic.

There's some oddities in their plan though:

Why is there 15 departures throughout from Toronto to Montreal, but 18 on the Montreal-VDQ segment? They have the ridership to justify that? From 5 trains today? It's a bigger jump than any other segment. If they are putting on extra trains, then why not Ottawa-Montreal?

Why the billion+ more for rolling stock? Shouldn't the new trains be sufficient for HFR? After all, higher speeds should make them more productive? I would have thought a smaller DMU fleet for the Kingston hub would not be this expensive. I expected some stock to be purchased. Not 11% more than what they spent on the recent Siemens order. They need that much more rolling stock?
Click to expand...

The new trains we are getting now are to replace the aging fleet we already have unfortunately. Which will still need to exist in some capacity. You still have to serve Kingston etc.
 
kEiThZ said:
I'm starting to wonder if going to Quebec City is about getting CDPQ Infra onboard as an investor.
Click to expand...

Perhaps this news report of Quebec City not viable is bait for them to jump on board. "join us or we will have to axe service to Quebec City"
 
I think that Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal should be built first, like NOW NOW, and then after thats complete have a Phase 2 to Quebec City, and a Phase 3 to Kitchener-London by buying the GEXR spur from CP.

Then phase 4 can be Windsor, and phase 5 can be removing grade crossings and electrification/high speed upgrades.
 
kEiThZ said:
Why is there 15 departures throughout from Toronto to Montreal, but 18 on the Montreal-VDQ segment? They have the ridership to justify that? From 5 trains today? It's a bigger jump than any other segment. If they are putting on extra trains, then why not Ottawa-Montreal?
Click to expand...

Pessimistic speculation - the plan is 12ish T-O-M, 3ish T-K-M..... but 15ish M-TR-Q and 3ish M-D-Q

- Paul
 
robmausser said:
The new trains we are getting now are to replace the aging fleet we already have unfortunately. Which will still need to exist in some capacity. You still have to serve Kingston etc.
Click to expand...

I get that. But I'm questioning the number. This is crazy. They are saying they need to spend more on rolling stock than the recapitalization of the entire Corridor stock today. That's obviously more than just serving Kingston.

crs1026 said:
Pessimistic speculation - the plan is 12ish T-O-M, 3ish T-K-M..... but 15ish M-TR-Q and 3ish M-D-Q

- Paul
Click to expand...

The article specifically says 15 on the TOM route. And 18 on MQ.

If they are running Kingston trains through, the question is why? Does the ridership justify the capital cost of buying extra trains to support an extended service? Not to mention the operational costs? Surely, Kingston to Quebec City travelers could simply transfer in Montreal or Ottawa?

Also begs the question, if Kingston-Ottawa-Montreal couldn't support this kind of service, boosting Ottawa-Montreal to 18 runs too.
 
I wonder if we are overthinking.

If one assumes the window of service is likely 06:30 to 23:30 (ish), and you can get M-Q down to 2 hours and a bit, you can offer departures all through the evening. A post-hockey/theatre run is even possible.

You won’t see that Montreal -- Toronto, because a late evening departure won’t get in until the wee hours.

That still doesn't explain Montreal- Ottawa, where with faster trips even a midnight departure would possibly sell seats, out of Montreal anyways.

Anyays, this may be a rough analysis that generates a revenue and cost forecast, rather than a detailed service plan.

I am glad to see more trains procured - remember, the current procurement was only seat for seat for what they have now. We need growth, and better utilization may not provide enoughof that.

- Paul
 
kEiThZ said:
Why is there 15 departures throughout from Toronto to Montreal, but 18 on the Montreal-VDQ segment? They have the ridership to justify that? From 5 trains today? It's a bigger jump than any other segment. If they are putting on extra trains, then why not Ottawa-Montreal?
Click to expand...

MTL-QC also has a bigger jump in speed than any other segment.

QC-MTL: 35-42% faster
MTL-OTT: 21% faster
OTT-TO: 26% faster
 
crs1026 said:
That still doesn't explain Montreal- Ottawa, where with faster trips even a midnight departure would possibly sell seats, out of Montreal anyways.
Click to expand...

crs1026 said:
Anyays, this may be a rough analysis that generates a revenue and cost forecast, rather than a detailed service plan.
Click to expand...

Could be. But even for a rough plan it is striking, they they assume Ottawa-Montreal has less than Montreal-VDQ. I would have thought they'd be the same level of service or even more between Ottawa-Montreal given the traffic between these two cities.

crs1026 said:
I am glad to see more trains procured - remember, the current procurement was only seat for seat for what they have now. We need growth, and better utilization may not provide enoughof that.
Click to expand...

It's not the fact that they need more trains that is strange to me. It's the size of the procurement. It's bigger than the entire existing corridor fleet. And that comes along with a 25% improve in productivity with HFR.

Even assuming they spend something nuts like half a billion on the fleet based in Kingston, that's still a massive amount to bolster the HFR fleet.

If they think they can fill the seats, it's great news. But it's still a mind boggling growth projection.
 
Btw, ive never seen this map personally, its from VIA's own site though

Carte-Trace-HFR-EN-Legend_TO-QC.jpg


I didnt realize they were proposing an Eglinton Station
 
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