I did say walking distance.
If the definition is walking distance, than most cities in the world won't have more than 5-10% of the population within walking distance of rail stations. That's not even true in Toronto. 95% within walking distance of rail is only happening in Hong Kong or Singapore. I don't even think London or Paris would meet that threshold.
And why only rail? Does BRT not count? The Transitway did a fantastic job providing rapid transit I'd say.
5 km is not walking distance. Most people are not going to use a 30 minute local bus to transfer to the Confederation Line to get to the station while carrying luggage.
5 km is about a 15-20 min bus ride. TTC buses average about 17 km/h. I would think OC Transpo would be about the same in most suburbaneseque areas. So with that in mind, I would think most people won't have an issue using a bus to access the LRT, if they don't have an excessive amount of baggage. This is certainly not a challenge elsewhere in the world.
. You said it yourself, that most people come by taxi, rideshare or drop-off, but many also park there.
And quite a few by transit, at least when the Transitway was open. I expect transit mode share to rise after the LRT. There's also a lot more condos built in the core in the last 6 years since the Transitway was closed.
I am not anxious to spend $100 for round trip taxi fare, when my VIA ticket might not be that much more than that.
Your case sounds atypical because:
1) You live far from the station. Far enough that it's a $50 cab ride. Between Tremblay and Fallowfield, most of Ottawa.
It's about $30 to get from Place D'Orleans to Tremblay. And about
$40 from Kanata Centrum to Fallowfield. To end up with an average of $50 in each direction, you'd have to live pretty far.
2) You sound like you don't take transit often (probably maybe commuting) and don't take VIA often and for short trips. Paying parking makes sense for you because cab fare is high.
For most of Ottawa,
$16 per day or $100 per month is going to motivate plenty of people to put up with a 15 min bus ride, even if they have some baggage. Or to just cab there.
So parking is there for the marginal users like yourself. The real question is whether the provision of that parking generates enough user traffic to justify that lot, or whether say using the space for a bus terminal would create more ridership.
I would expect at least one of those lots to become a bus terminal with HFR. And a parking structure to be built in the other one or above/below the bus terminal. I would not expect parking to scale up substantially with the increased usage of HFR. At $50 000 per spot, parking structures are expensive to build, and $16/day won't pay for that. So I'd expect a lower ratio of spots and much higher charges. Besides, the HFR concept isn't about chasing marginal passengers but grabbing all those who are used to using transit regularly, particularly as LRT, subway and suburban rail networks ramp up in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City. Don't need large and expensive parking structures to service those users.