Urban Sky
Senior Member
Mostly agreed, except that in terms of construction costs (and thus economic and political feasibility) a design speed of 160 km/h and 200 km/h are orders of magnitudes apart: Up to 177 km/h (110 mph), level crossings are generally possible, whereas FRA regulations require "impenetrable barriers" for all level crossings in the 178-200 km/h (111-125 mph) band, while (as I already posted in in July and December) Transport Canada's Grade Crossing Regulations already explicitly prohibit the construction of any level crossing beyond 177 km/h (110 mph).If HFR happens it will be the perfect project to really start to kick start modernization and rationalization of passenger rail in The Corridor. And based on gut feeling and the reaction to it in the media (and the minimal amount of negative reaction to it) I would put the odds in favour of it at around 75%,
There are two things VIA can do to that will allow it to make the service faster, more reliable, and more appealing. The first is to run on its own dedicated network of tracks. Most don't need to be full on, whiz bang, 300km/h lines. They just need to be their own, and allow trains to operate in that 160-200km/h zone a much as possible, without worrying about freight traffic. And they need to improve their reach and come up with better ways of directly serving areas like most all of the northern GTA, Gatineau, parts of the Montreal Region, and improving access in a number of locations (in other words, differentiating how the serve people home locations at the start of their trip, and their temporary home, their destination at the end of the trip). The second one will be able to happen over time as VIA increases frequency and has more trips that it can experiment with new services on, while not being at the expense of a particular place's existing service levels. And HFR, obviously, starts to address the first issue in a pretty big way.
Note: repost from #2,807
Source: FRA (2011, p.20)
If you refer to above table, the dilemma is as follows:
- Everything until 177 km/h (110 mph, Tiers 0/IA/IB) is relatively straightforward,
- Level crossings: whereas TC regulations outright ban them beyond 177 km/h (110 mph), FRA regulations allow a work-around in the 178-200 km/h (111-125 mph) band (Tier IC), but the necessary investments into "impenetrable barriers" under FRA regulations will become useless the moment you upgrade beyond 200 km/h (125 mph).
- Corridor-sharing with freight is still allowed beyond 200 km/h (125 mph), but only until 240 km/h (150 mph, Tier II), so moving beyond that speed requires a dedicated HSR Corridor which again renders prior investment useless.
- Track alignment: according to the Ecotrain Study, 200 km/h requires a minimum radius of 2,500 meters (2,000 meters with tilting trains), whereas 300 km/h requires a minimum radius of 6,000 meters. Investments in less generous track realignments therefore risks becoming useless when design speed is increased towards 300 km/h.
Currently, the detour via Ottawa adds 94 km (633 km vs. 539 km) and 1:28h (6:32h vs. 5:04h) to the schedule, but with HFR this penalty will decrease to 41 km (580 km) and travel time will actually become 19 minutes faster than the Lakeshore route today (4:45h vs. 5:04h) and most the Lakeshore route will cease to be relevant for Toronto-Montreal passengers and the removal of these passengers means that travel time and frequencies obtainable between Coteau and Brockville will suffice and therefore make any further investment in these segments obsolete...Everyone knows that the one section of The Corridor that can justifiably have a full HSL built is the Lakeshore corridor from Montreal to Toronto. And it will also be the most expensive section, regardless of what standard a dedicated passenger track is built to. And it will take a lot of planning. Some parts of the line might just be able to run parallel to the CN line, such as from around Coteau to close to Brockville, where the geometries are relatively straight, the land relatively flat, and densities (urban and rural) are lower than other parts of the Lakeshore line. [...]
By the time HFR has been built, VIA will have had enough time that it could come up with a plan for its own dedicated track in the Lakeshore corridor. I would find it surprising if the line was built all at once. Instead, I could see easier sections done first (like the Coteau to Brockville section mentioned above), while negotiations and planning continue for some of the more complicated ones. The plan doesn't need to be totally finalized by the time HFR is done, but the overall vision could be in place.
Me too! My colleagues and myself are working very hard to make it to happen!HFR is probably the first plan that has been proposed by VIA, or any agency or consortium, in the past 30 years, that is actually a good plan. It isn't a compromise plan. It doesn't mean HSR will never be built (it actually strengthens the case and need for HSR, in corridors where it makes sense). It is just a brilliantly, pragmatic plan. And I am not saying that because I have the "lets just support it so that we get something, anything built, or else we will get nothing and VIA will die" mentality. This is a win for almost everyone, is good value for money, will provide faster service, improve the limited rail infrastructure VIA currently owns, and increase the length of dedicated tracks it owns by 4 or 5 fold. HFR is something that everyone needs to get behind and support as vocally as possible.
I am really looking forward to hearing that announcement this year...
Very well said. For your average Joe, the biggest benefits of HFR will be that trains will run on time as scheduled, something that matters to people, and despite not being HSR, it will still cut travel time by roughly a quarter.
As @JasonParis said, JT needs a legacy project, and this would be a great one, and it would be a legacy in contrast to PET's massive cuts to VIA. One thing politically is that VIA is seen as a very "Eastern" service by people in the West. For VIA to thrive politically in the long term, there needs to be relevance for people in Western Canada too. A Calgary-Red Deer-Edmonton version of HFR would also be a relatively low-cost (building track in the Prairies is cheap because flatness) way to really emphasize the "Canada" part of VIA Rail Canada.
I agree and I count on that Western MPs to realize that HFR succeeding in Quebec-Ontario is their best chance to regain any useful intercity passenger rail service in their part of the country...I would love for HFR Phase 2 to be Calgary-Edmonton.
Lastly, I wonder whether VIA's BCA for HFR also addresses cost and revenue for the Lakeshore route - is the projection of capital cost, ridership, and revenue bundled for both? Or is the Lakeshore route left out of the VIA BCA, or, what assumptions does it make about a share of the through Toronto-Montreal traffic using HFR and not the Lakeshore route? My continuing fear is, the HFR business model has to deliver profitability across both routes, or Ottawa will not accept the proposal. Clearly, there will be no appetite for subsidy of the Lakeshore route once the HFR investment is on the books. I sure hope that the TC reports reach the public domain so so we know the numbers.
https://www.viarail.ca/sites/all/files/media/pdfs/About_VIA/HFR_Info_EN.pdf
https://www.viarail.ca/sites/all/files/media/pdfs/About_VIA/our-company/annual-reports/2017/2017_Annual Report_EN.pdf
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